Characterising the Perceived Risks and Benefits of Some Health Issues

Previous work on perceived risk, particularly a study by Fischhoff et al. (1978), is critically examined with reference to its applicability to specific health related issues. Judgments were obtained from 159 subjects of 15 health-related items in terms of perceived risk, benefit, and a number of risk characteristics based on the Fischhoff et al. research. In addition, demographic details concerning sex of respondent, seat belt usage, smoking status, and birth order were collected. Using regression analyses it was found that the direction of the risk-benefit relationship was dependent on the issue being judged. Risk was found to be better explained by ratings of likelihood of mishap and likelihood of death as a consequence of mishap. Benefit was poorly explained by the risk characteristics and demographic data. However, subject group characteristics were shown to be important influences on risk and benefit perception in certain situations. The implications of these results for understanding behavioral decisions involving risk in relation to specific activities are discussed.     

Medical students' and tutors' experiences of directed and self-directed learning programs in evidence-based medicine: a qualitative evaluation accompanying a randomized controlled trial

This qualitative study aims to interpret the results of a randomized controlled trial comparing two educational programs (directed learning and self-directed learning) in evidence-based medicine (EBM) for medical students at the University of Oslo from 2002 to 2003. There is currently very little comparative educational research in this field. In the trial, no statistically significant differences between the study groups were shown for any outcomes considered (EBM knowledge, skills, and attitudes). Further analysis suggests that main reason for the negative trial results was that the majority of students learned equally effectively, whichever program they received, although implementation of the educational programs was not complete because of varying attendance. This study illustrates a stepwise evaluation model that might be useful in evaluating other socially complex interventions.     

Accounting for the Value of Performance Measurement from the Perspective of Midwestern Mayors

This article studies the decades-long question, "Does performancemeasurement matter?" by examining how and why Midwest mayorsperceive value in performance measurement. The results showthat the tool is perceived positively, but its impact on decisionmaking depends on whether performance measurement is integratedinto strategic planning, goal setting, and internal communicationbetween city council members and departmental staff and on whethermajor stakeholders are involved in developing performance measures.The article discusses the implications for future results-orientedreforms and concludes that simply reporting performance informationin budgetary or public documents is not enough. Rather, a morecomprehensive look at the implementation issues of performancemeasurement and performance budgeting is necessary.     

Dempster's combination rule and sufficient statistics

In his articles (1966-1968) concerning statistical inference based on lower and upper probabilities, Dempster refers to the connection between Fisher's fiducial argument and his own ideas of statistical inference. Dempster's main concern however focuses on the “Bayesian” aspects of his theory and not on an elaboration of the relation between Fisher's and his ideas. This article attempts to work out the connection between those two approaches and focuses primarily on the question, whether Dempster's combination rule, his upper and lower probabilty based on sufficient statistics and inference based on sufficient statistics in Fisher's sense are consistent. To be adequate to Fisher's reasoning, we deal with absolutely continuous, one parametric families of distributions.This is certainly not the usual assumption in context with Dempster's theory and implies a normative but straightforward definition concerning the underlying conditional distribution; this definition however is done in Dempster's spirit as can be seen from his articles, (1966, 1968,a,b). Under those assumptions it can be shown that - similar to Lindley's results concerning consistency in fiducial reasoning (1958) - the combination rule, Dempster's procedure based on sufficient statistics and fiducial inference by sufficient statistics agree iff the parametric family under consideration can be transformed to location parameter form.     

Estimation in the bivariate poisson distribution and hypothesis testing concerning independence

Estimation procedures in the bivariate Poisson distribution are briefly reviewed and some errors in the literature are corrected. Asymptotic efficiencies are reexamined for both symmetric and asymmetric cases. Six hypothesis testing procedures, including three studied by Kocherlakota and Kocherlakota (1985), for independence are evaluated by using Monte Carlo simulations.     

Financial-Firm Production of Monetary Services: A Generalized Symmetric Baroett Variable-Profit-Function Approach

An alternative monetary-production model of financial firms is employed to investigate supply-side monetary aggregation. Financial firms are conceived to produce monetary services as outputs through financial intermediation. A new method for testing the existence of consistent monetary-output aggregates in financial firms' production technology is developed in terms of a multiproduct firm's variable profit function, and the method does not require homotheticity of the aggregator function. We use a generalized symmetric Barnett flexible functional form. That specification satisfies global curvature conditions and retains its flexibility under the null hypothesis of weak separability. Neither of those properties is possessed by other flexible functional forms.     

The Effect of Pseudo-Exogenous Instrumental Variables on Hausman Test

Hausman test is popularly used to examine the endogeneity of explanatory variables in a regression model. To derive a well-defined asymptotic distribution of Hausman test, the correlation between the instrumental variables and the error term needs to converge to zero. However, it is possible that there remains considerable correlation in finite samples between the instruments and the error, even though their correlation eventually converges to zero. This article investigates the potential problem that such “pseudo-exogenous” instruments may create. We show that the performance of Hausman test is deteriorated when the instruments are asymptotically exogenous but endogenous in finite samples, through Monte Carlo simulations.