The stratified win statistics (win ratio,win odds,and net benefit)

The win odds and the net benefit are related directly to each other and indirectly, through ties, to the win ratio. These three win statistics test the same null hypothesis of equal win probabilities between two groups. They provide similar p-values and powers, because the Z-values of their statistical tests are approximately equal. Thus, they can complement one another to show the strength of a treatment effect. In this article, we show that the estimated variances of the win statistics are also directly related regardless of ties or indirectly related through ties. Since its introduction in 2018, the stratified win ratio has been applied in designs and analyses of clinical trials, including Phase III and Phase IV studies. This article generalizes the stratified method to the win odds and the net benefit. As a result, the relations of the three win statistics and the approximate equivalence of their statistical tests also hold for the stratified win statistics.     

Generalized phase I-II designs to increase long term therapeutic success rate

Designs for early phase dose finding clinical trials typically are either phase I based on toxicity, or phase I-II based on toxicity and efficacy. These designs rely on the implicit assumption that the dose of an experimental agent chosen using these short-term outcomes will maximize the agent's long-term therapeutic success rate. In many clinical settings, this assumption is not true. A dose selected in an early phase oncology trial may give suboptimal progression-free survival or overall survival time, often due to a high rate of relapse following response. To address this problem, a new family of Bayesian generalized phase I-II designs is proposed. First, a conventional phase I-II design based on short-term outcomes is used to identify a set of candidate doses, rather than selecting one dose. Additional patients then are randomized among the candidates, patients are followed for a predefined longer time period, and a final dose is selected to maximize the long-term therapeutic success rate, defined in terms of duration of response. Dose-specific sample sizes in the randomization are determined adaptively to obtain a desired level of selection reliability. The design was motivated by a phase I-II trial to find an optimal dose of natural killer cells as targeted immunotherapy for recurrent or treatment-resistant B-cell hematologic malignancies. A simulation study shows that, under a range of scenarios in the context of this trial, the proposed design has much better performance than two conventional phase I-II designs.     

增权视野下未成年犯矫正社会工作实务探析——以广西河池市X司法所为例

目前,我国社区矫正的重刑倾向使司法工作者较少关注到未成年社区服刑人员的“失权”处境。增权既有利于帮助该特殊群体提高适应生活的能力,又有利于帮助他们顺利实现再社会化。对广西河池市X司法所的介入研究发现,从个人、人际和环境3个层面为未成年犯增权,有助于将“他助”转化为“自助”。同时存在案主客观问题易被忽视、社会工作者在矫正社会工作中缺乏独立性、工作成效受限等问题,建议从丰富增权理论运用模式、提高社会工作者地位认同、凝聚多方力量群策群力等层面进行优化。     

疫情防控背景下毕业设计(论文)改进策略研究

毕业设计(论文)是培养本科人才的重要教学环节,2020年新冠肺炎疫情的暴发对毕业设计(论文)工作产生一定的影响.该文以广东石油化工学院化学工程与工艺专业为例,从学校、学院、专业三个维度介绍为应对疫情影响所采取的措施,分析存在的问题,并提出未来的持续改进策略,以提高学生从事工程设计和科学研究的能力.     

Borrowing Information across Populations in Estimating Positive and Negative Predictive Values

A marker's capacity to predict risk of a disease depends on disease prevalence in the target population and its classification accuracy, i.e. its ability to discriminate diseased subjects from non-diseased subjects. The latter is often considered an intrinsic property of the marker; it is independent of disease prevalence and hence more likely to be similar across populations than risk prediction measures. In this paper, we are interested in evaluating the population-specific performance of a risk prediction marker in terms of positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) at given thresholds, when samples are available from the target population as well as from another population. A default strategy is to estimate PPV and NPV using samples from the target population only. However, when the marker's classification accuracy as characterized by a specific point on the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve is similar across populations, borrowing information across populations allows increased efficiency in estimating PPV and NPV. We develop estimators that optimally combine information across populations. We apply this methodology to a cross-sectional study where we evaluate PCA3 as a risk prediction marker for prostate cancer among subjects with or without previous negative biopsy.     

Des formes de la protestation politique (France,XVIIe – XIXe siècles)

The forms of protest that women occasionally adopted express a social and political assertion. Generally, they borrowed forms in circulation: civil procedures for the grievances under the ancient regime, declarations of human rights during the French revolution. After the Revolution, the adoption by women of the right of petition to the constituted powers is a massive phenomenon remaining practically unknown and little studied. The petitions of women are ancient demonstrations which are not only related to modern history; they are comparable with the ‘voices’ described by Hirschman and Boltanski. By marking out the political history of the modern period, they have an explanatory significance for political events and also contribute to the formation of public opinion.     

美国电影视域下的科技主义文化特征及其反思

美国的高科技为美国电影向世界范围传播搭建了平台,体现了"科技至上"与"科技崇拜"的文化视角.若将科技的作用强调到极端,对高科技形成人类图腾的迷狂,一味推祟工具理性,奉行"科技至上"、"科技崇拜",否定人文精神,将对社会的发展起到危害作用.     

投资组合的风险度量问题研究

本文研究CVaR模型对投资组合的风险度量问题,将VaR与CVaR两个风险度量模型进行比较,指出当今流行的风险管理模型VaR的缺陷,分析了CVaR模型进行风险管理的优势,以及用CVaR模型来代替VaR模型作为金融机构风险管理主要工具的重要性。     

《哲学的贫困》文本价值与当代启示

<哲学的贫困>是马克思主义哲学和马克思主义政治经济学发展史上的双重经典,具有重要的历史价值.著名学者马雷什、费多谢耶夫、卢森贝、维戈茨基等对该文本的思想内涵加以深入审视,认为该文本是马克思思想的里程碑.梳理并分辨诸学者对该经典的解读,对我们理解<哲学的贫困>的历史价值并生发其时代精神,具有一定的启示意义.     

Eighth‐Grade School Form and Resilience in the Transition to High School: A Comparison of Middle Schools and K‐8 Schools

We examine a set of academic and social outcomes in 9th grade, comparing middle school attendees with those who attended K‐8 schools. Previous research with these data has shown that there are few differences in 8th‐grade outcomes by school type. Here we extend these findings to determine whether school form influences student outcomes in the first year of high school. The results reveal several domains in which attendance at a middle school results in worse outcomes (e.g., greater rates of course failure); however, we find that a large portion of the difference by type of a student's 8th‐grade school is accounted for by differential rates of attendance at the district's magnet schools. That is, our results indicate that type of school attended during the middle grades is significantly and positively related to magnet school attendance and thereby on the academic outcomes in the 9th‐grade year.