Risk, Statistical Inference, and the Law of Evidence: The Use of Epidemiological Data in Toxic Tort Cases

Toxic torts are product liability cases dealing with alleged injuries due to chemical or biological hazards such as radiation, thalidomide, or Agent Orange. Toxic tort cases typically rely more heavily than other product liability cases on indirect or statistical proof of injury. There have been numerous theoretical analyses of statistical proof of injury in toxic tort cases. However, there have been only a handful of actual legal decisions regarding the use of such statistical evidence, and most of those decisions have been inconclusive. Recently, a major case from the Fifth Circuit, involving allegations that Benedectin (a morning sickness drug) caused birth defects, was decided entirely on the basis of statistical inference. This paper examines both the conceptual basis of that decision, and also the relationships among statistical inference, scientific evidence, and the rules of product liability in general.     

Time series analysis and stochastic forecasting: An econometric study of mortality and life expectancy

Methods for time series modeling of mortality and stochastic forecasting of life expectancies are explored, using Canadian data. Consideration is given first to alternative indexes of aggregate mortality. Age-sex group system models are then estimated. Issues in the forecasting of life expectancies are discussed and their quantitative implications investigated. Experimental stochastic forecasts are presented and discussed, based on nonparametric, partially parametric, and fully parametric methods, representing alternatives to the well known Lee-Carter method. Some thoughts are offered on the interpretation of historical data in generating future probability distributions, and on the treatment of demographic uncertainty in long-run policy planning. All correspondence to Frank T. Denton. This paper is a revised version of one presented at the Annual Congress of the European Society for Population Economics, Athens, Greece, June 2001. The underlying work was carried out as part of the SEDAP (Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population) Research Program supported by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, Statistics Canada and the Canadian Institute for Health Information. Ronald Lee provided comments that were very helpful in revising an earlier version of the paper. We thank him and participants at the ESPE session at which that version was presented. We thank also the Journal's anonymous referees. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Socialization Influences on Early Adolescents' Cognitive Susceptibility and Transition to Sexual Intercourse

This study examined the relationship between perceived socialization from parents, school, peers, and media and adolescents' cognitive susceptibility to initiating sexual intercourse and transition to intercourse 2 years later. Baseline and follow‐up in‐home Audio‐Computer Assisted Self Interview surveys were completed by 854 Black and White male and female adolescents who, at baseline, were 12–14 years old and had not engaged in sexual intercourse. Results showed that stronger connections to parents and schools and less exposure to permissive sexual norms from peers and media were associated with less susceptibility and sexual behavior, especially among White adolescents. Susceptibility mediated 38–64% of the relations between parent and school socialization and sexual intercourse behavior, and mediated 28–53% of the peer and media socialization links to behavior. Findings provide support for social cognitive models of adolescents' behavior and suggest potential strategies for successful interventions to delay initiation of sexual intercourse.     

SOCIAL LEARNING THEORY AND ALCOHOL BEHAVIOR AMONG THE ELDERLY

Research directly testing Akers's social learning theory has been thus far confined to teenage drug, drinking, and smoking behavior. This study extends the application of social learning theory to older adults' alcohol behavior. Data were gathered through face-to-face interviews of 1,410 people sixty years of age or over living in New Jersey and Florida in either retirement (age homogeneous) or age-integrated communities. A social learning model of differential association, differential reinforcement, and definitions is supported by findings on elderly drinking behavior. As is true for younger age groups, drinking among the elderly is related to the norms and behavior of one's primary groups, one's own attitudes toward (definitions of) alcohol, and the balance of reinforcement for drinking.     

Depressed and Well Mothers' Emotion Interpretation Accuracy and the Quality of Mother—Infant Interaction

The inadequate parenting associated with mothers' depression may be related to mothers' problems in interpreting infants' emotional expressions. The relations between depressed and well mothers' accuracy at interpreting babies' facial expressions and the quality of the mothers' interactions with their infants were examined. In partial support of our hypotheses, depressed mothers' level of depressive symptoms was associated with less accuracy, especially regarding positive emotions. Contrary to expectations, depressed mothers did not differ from well mothers in terms of their emotion accuracy. Furthermore, depressed mothers' accuracy at interpreting infants' emotions was not significantly related to the quality of their interaction with their infants; in contrast, well mothers' accuracy for infants' negative emotions was associated with better interaction quality. These findings provide new information about depressed mothers' emotional interpretations and their parenting. The different pattern of findings for depressed and well mothers suggests that other mediating factors are important, which are discussed.     

Meeting Family Housing Needs: Experiences of Rural Women in the Midst of Welfare Reform

Though sometimes overlooked, the availability, affordability, and quality of housing in rural communities are a potential barrier to transitioning from welfare to work. In this investigation we examine housing issues confronting 17 rural women and their families who were recipients of welfare benefits in 1997. Respondents' housing accounts illustrate the significance of reliance on both government housing subsidies and informal subsidies supplied by friends, family, and more distant relatives. The study focuses on concerns women have in meeting their families shelter needs and the complexities involved in doing so. The findings of the research suggest that additional housing policy initiatives, as well as a targeted research agenda are needed, especially for families whose welfare benefits are nearing termination.     

Self‐Efficacy,Perceptions of Barriers,Vocational Identity,and the Career Exploration Behavior of Latino/a High School Students

This study explored the potential relationship between the social cognitive variables of career decision‐making self‐efficacy and perceptions of barriers and the outcome variables of vocational identity and career exploration behaviors in a sample of 128 urban Latino/a high school students. The results indicated that higher levels of career decision‐making self‐efficacy were related to both a more differentiated vocational identity and a greater engagement with career exploration tasks. Perception of fewer barriers was also found to be related to a more integrated vocational identity. Implications for career counseling and future research are discussed.