Dinner with Bayes: On the revision of risk beliefs

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - We study how people form and revise health risk beliefs based on food safety information. In an online experiment, subjects stated their perceived risk of...     

Factors Associated with the Finnish Fertility Decline Since 1776

The analysis of annual age-specific fertility rates in Finland over more than 200 years reveals the existence of a significant early fertility decline at the end of the eighteenth century preceding the secular decline that started around 1910. A reconstruction of age-specific proportions married by a simulation model based on Coale's marriage model indicates that the mean age at marriage increased and the proportion ever-marrying decreased substantially during the period of the early fertility decline. A modification of the index of family limitation applied under certain assumptions to overall fertility rates also indicates that fertility was essentially natural until 1910. Cross-lagged correlation analysis shows that infant mortality does not influence subsequent fertility in the pre-modern period. Finally, a number of socio-economic indicators are related to fertility, and conclusions are drawn from the Finnish case about several hypotheses in the field of demographic transition.     

The Demand for Labor: An Analysis Using Matched Employer–Employee Data from the German LIAB. Will the High Unskilled Worker Own-Wage Elasticity Please Stand Up?

This paper uses matched employee–employer LIAB data to provide panel estimates of the structure of labor demand in western Germany, 1993–2002, distinguishing between highly skilled, skilled, and unskilled labor and between the manufacturing and service sectors. Reflecting current preoccupations, our demand analysis seeks also to accommodate the impact of technology and trade in addition to wages. The bottom-line interests are to provide elasticities of the demand for unskilled (and other) labor that should assist in short-run policy design and to identify the extent of skill biases or otherwise in trade and technology.

How Provider Selection and Management Contribute to Successful Innovation Outsourcing: An Empirical Study at Siemens

It is becoming increasingly common to involve external technology providers in developing new technologies and new products. Two important phases involved in working with technology vendors are vendor selection and vendor management. Because for both steps theory development of key decision guidelines is still immature, we use detailed case studies of 31 innovation outsourcing projects at Siemens to develop grounded theory on provider selection criteria and on project management success drivers. A selection criterion often associated with successful outsourcing is the provider's “track record” or previous experience. Our cases suggest that there is no standard “track record” for success but that a “match” between the client firm's outsourcing motivation and the provider's strengths appears to be a necessary condition for a successful outsourcing collaboration. As to the second phase—managing the vendor—we identify a number of operational project success drivers. There seems to be no universal checklist, but the most important drivers seem to be contingent on the type of vendor chosen and on the maturity of the technology. We compare five provider types—universities, competitors, customers, start‐up companies, and component suppliers—and find that some success drivers are common to all providers, while others are relevant only for certain types of provider. Moreover, drivers in the case of a mature technology are more focused on successful transfer to manufacturing than on development itself. Our findings offer guidelines for innovation managers on how to select innovation providers and how to manage them during the project.     

Technological change and sociocultural models in China: A case study of train commuters in Beijing

ABSTRACT

China’s mobility turn has created the world’s largest public rail system, contributing extensively to citizens’ economic, social, and spatial mobility. Concurrently, this technological transformation has introduced many opportunities for individuation, which could potentially challenge the social, collectivistic, and Confucian foundations of China’s sociocultural and political ideology. While the notion that ‘mobility produces culture’ is readily accepted, research on train mobility in China is rare. In this study, we use Albert Bandura’s Model of Triadic Reciprocal Causation to conceptualize mobility as agency. We employ Hermeneutic Content Analysis, a mixed methods framework, to study how this rapidly evolving mobility environment connects to the lives of 31 regular train users living in Beijing. Studying agency in China enables us to systematize the sociocultural models within which mobility practices are embedded and how they manifest. We find that our interviewees embed agentive practices in a cultural model that is intertwined with collectivistic aspirations of the country. Technological developments are thus integrated into existing sociocultural models and political expectations, contradicting existing debates on the fracturing impact of disruptive technologies.     

Bewusster Umgang mit Übertragungsphänomenen als Management Soft Skill

The author presents the psychological concept of transference and it’s relevance for daily management life in companies. This aspect can above all be found in hierarchical working relationships were the transference of unsolved and repressed conflicts of collaborators coming from their personal biography appear rather frequently. But also the dynamics within teams may be influenced by transference phenomena. Explanation is given how these transference-based conflicts can develop counterproductive dynamics. Based on three case examples the author illustrates these dynamics. He finally comes to the conclusion that the knowledge of the transference phenomena and how to deal with them consciously is an important management soft skill that improves manager’s and leader’s efficiency.     

Charisma and organizational change: A multilevel study of perceived charisma,commitment to change,and team performance

What makes people perceive a leader as charismatic, and how do team leaders obtain performance outcomes from their followers? We examine leaders in times of organizational change and investigate the mechanisms through which leaders' change-promoting behaviors are associated with team performance. In a multilevel mediation model, we propose that the indirect relationship between change-promoting behaviors and team performance is sequentially transmitted through followers' perceptions of charisma and followers' commitment to change. A study of 33 leaders and 142 followers provides empirical support for the model, using multilevel structural equation modeling to analyze top-down relationships between leaders and followers and bottom-up relationships between followers and team outcomes. Results suggest that team leaders are perceived as more charismatic when they engage in change-promoting behaviors. These behaviors facilitate team performance through individual followers' perceived charisma and commitment to change.