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181.
We show that the correlation between the estimates of two parameters is almost unchanged if they are each transformed in an arbitrary way. To be more specific, the correlation of two estimates is invariant (except for a possible sign change) up to a first order approximation, to smooth transformations of the estimates. There is a sign change if exactly one of the transformations is decreasing in a neighborhood of its parameter. In addition, we approximate the variance, covariance and correlation between functions of sample means and moments. 相似文献
182.
In this paper, we study a nonparametric additive regression model suitable for a wide range of time series applications. Our model includes a periodic component, a deterministic time trend, various component functions of stochastic explanatory variables, and an AR(p) error process that accounts for serial correlation in the regression error. We propose an estimation procedure for the nonparametric component functions and the parameters of the error process based on smooth backfitting and quasimaximum likelihood methods. Our theory establishes convergence rates and the asymptotic normality of our estimators. Moreover, we are able to derive an oracle‐type result for the estimators of the AR parameters: Under fairly mild conditions, the limiting distribution of our parameter estimators is the same as when the nonparametric component functions are known. Finally, we illustrate our estimation procedure by applying it to a sample of climate and ozone data collected on the Antarctic Peninsula. 相似文献
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Christopher Tong 《The American statistician》2019,73(1):246-261
ABSTRACTScientific research of all kinds should be guided by statistical thinking: in the design and conduct of the study, in the disciplined exploration and enlightened display of the data, and to avoid statistical pitfalls in the interpretation of the results. However, formal, probability-based statistical inference should play no role in most scientific research, which is inherently exploratory, requiring flexible methods of analysis that inherently risk overfitting. The nature of exploratory work is that data are used to help guide model choice, and under these circumstances, uncertainty cannot be precisely quantified, because of the inevitable model selection bias that results. To be valid, statistical inference should be restricted to situations where the study design and analysis plan are specified prior to data collection. Exploratory data analysis provides the flexibility needed for most other situations, including statistical methods that are regularized, robust, or nonparametric. Of course, no individual statistical analysis should be considered sufficient to establish scientific validity: research requires many sets of data along many lines of evidence, with a watchfulness for systematic error. Replicating and predicting findings in new data and new settings is a stronger way of validating claims than blessing results from an isolated study with statistical inferences. 相似文献
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Kirsi Juhila Christopher Hall Kirsi Günther Suvi Raitakari Sirpa Saario 《Social Policy & Administration》2015,49(5):612-630
Across Western welfare regimes, policies emphasize that service users should have more choices regarding their services. This article examines how service choices are presented, responded to and decided in interactions between service users and professionals in mental health transition meetings. Choice is often associated with consumerist user involvement ideas, but in mental health choice also relates to the democratic user involvement approach and to shared decision making between professionals and service users. The results of the study show that professionals construct service users as consumers by offering service options in choice making sequences, expecting users to make appropriate choices. Service users mostly act like consumers by responding to these choice options. However, the study also demonstrates that the professionals do not always accept the user's first choice but respond to them as non‐preferred. Sometimes, they also suggest choices on behalf of the users. In these ‘non‐accepting’ sequences, choices are negotiated in interaction between the parties, rather than users acting as autonomous choice makers. The sequences are based on two kinds of professional reasoning: first, the professional‐led needs assessment and, second, the structure of the service package that the user is being offered. This negotiation has elements of shared decision making and the ‘logic of care’. But it also has elements of paternalist control which challenge both consumerist and democratic service user involvement and suggests consideration of more collectively oriented service user actions. 相似文献
188.
Understanding Gaps Between the Risk Perceptions of Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI) Residents and Wildfire Professionals 下载免费PDF全文
James R. Meldrum Patricia A. Champ Hannah Brenkert‐Smith Travis Warziniack Christopher M. Barth Lilia C. Falk 《Risk analysis》2015,35(9):1746-1761
Research across a variety of risk domains finds that the risk perceptions of professionals and the public differ. Such risk perception gaps occur if professionals and the public understand individual risk factors differently or if they aggregate risk factors into overall risk differently. The nature of such divergences, whether based on objective inaccuracies or on differing perspectives, is important to understand. However, evidence of risk perception gaps typically pertains to general, overall risk levels; evidence of and details about mismatches between the specific level of risk faced by individuals and their perceptions of that risk is less available. We examine these issues with a paired data set of professional and resident assessments of parcel‐level wildfire risk for private property in a wildland–urban interface community located in western Colorado, United States. We find evidence of a gap between the parcel‐level risk assessments of a wildfire professional and numerous measures of residents’ risk assessments. Overall risk ratings diverge for the majority of properties, as do judgments about many specific property attributes and about the relative contribution of these attributes to a property's overall level of risk. However, overall risk gaps are not well explained by many factors commonly found to relate to risk perceptions. Understanding the nature of these risk perception gaps can facilitate improved communication by wildfire professionals about how risks can be mitigated on private lands. These results also speak to the general nature of individual‐level risk perception. 相似文献
189.
Martín Yago Cutter Susan L. Li Zhenlong Emrich Christopher T. Mitchell Jerry T. 《Population and environment》2020,42(1):4-27
Population and Environment - After a disaster, there is an urgent need for information on population mobility. Our analysis examines the suitability of Twitter data for measuring post-disaster... 相似文献
190.
Recently, an amalgamation of articles have appeared in a wide range of publications linking together community and school inclusion, and facilitated communication research as an unholy trinity of anti-empiricism eroding the disability fields. The authors of these critiques suggest that there exists a scientific basis for state institutions, segregated learning and a non-critical acceptance of traditional interpretations of expressive ability on the part of people with disabilities. In this article we expose not science, but an ideology of segregated control behind these claims. This ideology permeates the disabilityrelated professions and is cloaked in the language of the natural sciences. We trace this use of the natural sciences to the eugenics movement of the early twentieth century and explore the legacy of the ideology of control as it impacts current understanding of disability. 相似文献