An Elementary Introduction to Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Multinomial Models: Birch's Theorem and the Delta Method

A fairly complete introduction to the large sample theory of parametric multinomial models, suitable for a second-year graduate course in categorical data analysis, can be based on Birch's theorem (1964) and the delta method (Bishop, Fienberg, and Holland 1975). I present an elementary derivation of a version of Birch's theorem using the implicit function theorem from advanced calculus, which allows the presentation to be relatively self-contained. The use of the delta method in deriving asymptotic distributions is illustrated by Rao's (1973) result on the distribution of standardized residuals, which complements the presentation in Bishop, Fienberg, and Holland. The asymptotic theory is illustrated by two examples.     

Linear Transformations of Linear Mixed-Effects Models

A number of articles have discussed the way lower order polynomial and interaction terms should be handled in linear regression models. Only if all lower order terms are included in the model will the regression model be invariant with respect to coding transformations of the variables. If lower order terms are omitted, the regression model will not be well formulated. In this paper, we extend this work to examine the implications of the ordering of variables in the linear mixed-effects model. We demonstrate how linear transformations of the variables affect the model and tests of significance of fixed effects in the model. We show how the transformations modify the random effects in the model, as well as their covariance matrix and the value of the restricted log-likelihood. We suggest a variable selection strategy for the linear mixed-effects model.     

Adjusting Cornish–Fisher expansions and confidence intervals for the effect of roundoff

Suppose we want to estimate some smooth function of two types of parameters. The first can be estimated by sample means, while the second is known exactly up to the number of decimal places recorded, that is they are subject to roundoff. We obtain the Cornish–Fisher expansions and associated nonparametric confidence intervals for such functions. These results are illustrated by a simulation study.     

Expressions for the distribution and percentiles of the sums and products of chi-squares

Linear combinations of central or non-central chi-squares occur naturally in a variety of contexts. The products of chi-squares occur when a variance has a chi-square prior and in electrical engineering. Here, we give expansions for their distribution and quantiles and also for the products of the powers of chi-squares, including ratios. These provide much more accurate approximations than those based on asymptotic normality. The larger the degrees of freedom or the larger the non-centrality parameters, the better the approximations. We give the first four terms of these expansions. These provide approximations with errors smaller by five magnitudes than those based on asymptotic normality or on Satterthwaite's approximation. His method matched the first two moments of the target and a multiple of a chi-square and is only a first-order approximation like that based on the central limit theorem. We show that it can be made second order by matching the first three moments. The appendices show how to obtain analytical expressions for the distribution of weighted sums of chi-squares.     

Managing a Remanufacturing System with Random Yield: Properties,Observations, and Heuristics

We study a remanufacturing system that involves the ordering of a serviceable product and the remanufacturing of multiple types of returned products (cores) into the serviceable product. In addition to random demand for the serviceable product and random returned quantities of different types of cores in each time period, the remanufacturing yield of each type of core is also uncertain. By analyzing a multi‐period stochastic dynamic program, we derive several properties of the optimal ordering/remanufacturing policy. In addition to some insights, these properties can be used to reduce the search effort of the optimal policy. We also demonstrate that some existing results derived from related models no longer hold in remanufacturing systems with random yield. Recognizing the optimal ordering/remanufacturing policy is highly complex, we examine three simple heuristics that can be efficiently solved and implemented in practice. Among these three heuristics, our numerical analysis suggests that the heuristic that captures most of the yield uncertainty and future system evolvement as well as some of the properties of the optimal ordering/remanufacturing policy outperforms the other two heuristics.     

Multidimensional Poverty: Measurement,Estimation, and Inference

Calibration in macroeconomics involves choosing fre parameters by matching certain moments of simulted models with those of data. We formally examine this method by treating the process of calibration as an econometric estimator. A numerical version of the Mehra-Prescott (1985) economy is the setting for an evaluation of calibration estimators via Monte Carlo methods. While these estimators sometimes have reasonable finite-sample properties they are not robust to mistakes in setting non-free parameters. In contrast, generalized method-of-moments (GMM) estimators have satisfactory finite-sample characteristics, quick convergence, and informational requirements less stringent than those of calibration estimators. In dynamic equilibrium models in which GMM is infeasible we offer some suggestions for improving estimates based on calibration methodology.     

Correlates of Suicide Ideation Among LGBT Nebraskans

The aim of this investigation is to outline correlates of suicide ideation among LGBT individuals living in Nebraska. A community-based participatory research approach was utilized to develop a 30-minute, online anonymous survey. Almost half of the sample had seriously considered suicide at some point in their lives. Significant correlates of increased likelihood of suicide ideation are age, gender, transgender identity, income, depression, and discrimination. Suicide ideation is a serious concern for the health of LGBT Nebraskans. Steps should be taken to incorporate individuals who fall into these high-risk categories in suicide outreach programs.     

Assessing the impact of an asset-based intervention on educational outcomes of orphaned children and adolescents: findings from a randomised experiment in Uganda

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the effect of an asset-based intervention on academic performance and school transition among orphaned and vulnerable children in Uganda. Participants were randomly assigned to either the control arm or two treatment arms receiving an asset-based intervention. Participants in the treatment arms scored better grades; and had higher odds of transitioning to post-primary education relative to the control arm. Programmes which target financial insecurity may have a positive impact on the educational achievement and progression of orphaned children. There is a need to consider incorporating asset-based interventions within the development of educational policy, especially in low-income countries.     

Aborigines and Conservationism: The Daintree-Bloomfield Road

This paper examines the relationship between Aborigines and the conservation movement by presenting a case study of a pro-development stance taken by an Aboriginal group. In 1983, the Aborigines, Kuku-Yalanji speakers from Wujalwujal south of Cooktown in north Queensland, supported the construction of a road into their community through an ecologically important area of lowland coastal rainforest near Cape Tribulation north of Cairns. The paper attempts to explain the conflict between pro- and anti-road forces by looking, first, at some conservationists' notions of Aboriginal culture, and, second, at the local Aboriginal political economy. It concludes by raising other issues, including that of consultation, and the use by the conservation movement of Aboriginal culture as a touchstone for its endeavours.