Social Exclusion and Participation in Community Development Projects: Evidence from Senegal

This article seeks to provide a new insight into the debate about participation through a comprehensive analysis of the mechanisms at play behind community participation. The combined use of the concepts of social exclusion and of game theory is explored as a dynamic and innovative analytical tool to understand participatory processes in community development projects. The framework is tested against the analysis of participation in an NGO‐led community project in Senegal. Policy implications point to a need to unravel the complexity of participation to design more effective and sustainable community development projects.     

Old and Cold: Older People and Policies Failing to Address Fuel Poverty

Research, funded by the British Gas Help the Aged Partnership and carried out by the Institute of Gerontology, King's College London, explored the multidimensional issues of fuel poverty. A sample of older homeowners and private renters living in England, Scotland and Wales were interviewed in the Spring of 2003 to explore their experiences of keeping their homes warm in the preceding winter. It was found that almost half of the sample for whom full information was available were in fuel poverty. Government schemes failed to address some important issues. Grants were only available to those with “passport benefits”, excluding those who had minimal occupational pensions. Although most respondents had central heating, it was often old and ineffective, yet grants were not available to modernize them. Government schemes did not extend to paying for external and internal insulation for solid wall properties yet many older people live in such property. Several older people lived in rural areas not connected to mains gas. As mains gas currently provides the cheapest fuel, they faced high bills, yet government policies do not address the differential fuel costs in these areas. The culture of many older people in the study contributed to their living in cold homes. They lived frugally and usually turned heating off in daylight hours during winter. It was also a common practice to sleep in an unheated bedroom during winter and to keep the window open at night. Such practices are acknowledged to be unhealthy.     

The ratio bias phenomenon: fact or artifact?

The ratio bias—according to which individuals prefer to bet on probabilities expressed as a ratio of large numbers to normatively equivalent or superior probabilities expressed as a ratio of small numbers—has recently gained momentum, with researchers especially in health economics emphasizing the policy importance of the phenomenon. Although the bias has been replicated several times, some doubts remain about its economic significance. Our two experiments show that the bias disappears once order effects are excluded, and once salient and dominant incentives are provided. This holds true for both choice and valuation tasks. Also, adding context to the decision problem does not alter this finding. No ratio bias could be found in between-subject tests either, which leads us to the conclusion that the policy relevance of the phenomenon is doubtful at best.     

Using Discrete-Time Event History Fertility Models to Simulate Total Fertility Rates and Other Fertility Measures

Event history models, also known as hazard models, are commonly used in analyses of fertility. One drawback of event history models is that the conditional probabilities (hazards) estimated by event history models do not readily translate into summary measures, particularly for models of repeatable events, like childbirth. In this paper, we describe how to translate the results of discrete-time event history models of all births into well-known summary fertility measures: simulated age- and parity-specific fertility rates, parity progression ratios, and the total fertility rate. The method incorporates all birth intervals, but permits the hazard functions to vary across parities. It can also simulate values for groups defined by both fixed and time-varying covariates, such as marital or employment life histories. We demonstrate the method using an example from the National Survey of Family Growth and provide an accompanying data file and Stata program.     

Estimating school effectiveness with student growth percentile and gain score models

Measuring school effectiveness using student test scores is controversial and some methods used for this can be inaccurate in some situations. The validity of two statistical models – the Student Growth Percentile (SGP) model and a multilevel gain score model – are evaluated. The SGP model conditions on previous test scores thereby unblocking a backdoor path between true school/teacher effectiveness and student test scores. When the product of the coefficients that make up this unblocked backdoor path is positive, the SGP estimates can be inaccurate. The accuracy of the multilevel gain score model was not associated with the product of this backdoor path. The gain score model appears promising in these situations where the SGP and other covariate adjusted models perform poorly.     

New balanced sampling plans excluding adjacent units

Hedayat et al. [1988a. Sampling plans excluding contiguous units. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 19, 159–170; 1988b. Designs in survey sampling avoiding contiguous units. In: Krishnaiah, P.R., Rao, C.R. (Eds.). Handbook of Statistics, vol. 6. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp. 575–583] first introduced balanced sampling designs for the exclusion of contiguous units. Sampling plans that excluded the selection of contiguous units within a given sample, while maintaining a constant second-order inclusion probability for non-contiguous units, were investigated for finite populations of N units arranged in a circular, one-dimensional ordering. There remain many open questions about the existence of such plans and their extension to plans excluding adjacent units. We present new generation techniques and new balanced sampling plans for the exclusion of adjacent units under finite, one-dimensional, circularly and linearly ordered populations.     

Armed robbery and the meanings of money

In this study, we investigate the meanings active armed robbers give to money before, during, and after their crimes and how these meanings shape their offending. We do so by examining interviews undertaken from 1994 to 1995 with robbers in St. Louis, Missouri, USA. Prior to their robberies, the interviewees' desperation leads them to define money as essential to survival. Immediately following robberies and in looking back on them, they come to view this essential money in other ways as well—as too time-consuming to get, as “easy,” or as guilt-free. These meanings facilitate the contradictory way robbers see money as “fast” after offences. We discuss how these shifting meanings of money shape and are shaped by robbers' structural positions, cultural outlooks, and social relations. In doing so, we also help to explain how the shifting meanings of money play into criminogenic cycles of predatory offending.