Computer assisted strategic planning

This paper describes a representative, sectionalized, computer assisted strategic planning system, as developed and used by the authors. It suggests that the future direction of such programmes—with several already in use—is toward the development of approaches which combine simulation and linear programming to simultaneously address long and short-term objectives.     

Personnel policies and the age structure of an occupation: the case of the academic labor market

Population projection techniques are used to project the size and age structure of the academic labor force. Age specific coverage data from Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association are used to proxy academic employment. Hiring, quit, retirement and death rates are calculated for 1981 and 1982. Projections of the future academic labor force are made holding these rates constant. The results show the importance of these entry and exit rates and also indicate how these rates can fluctuate from year to year.Estimates of the future demand for teachers are used to determine a target rate of growth of the academic labor force. Alternative personnel policies are incorporated into the projections. This analysis indicates that the personnel policies chosen to meet the desired labor force size have substantially different effects on the age structure of the labor force.The authors wish to acknowledge the cooperation of the Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association in providing the data used in this study and specifically Francis King for his assistance and encouragement. Helpful comments on this paper were provided by John Dutton, Ronald Schrimper, Jack Wilson, and Bryan Boulier.     

The strong uniform convergence of multivariate variable kernel estimates

We show that sup, completely as, where f is a uniformly continuous density on are independent random vectors with common density f, and f_n is the variable kernel estimate Here H_ni is the distance between X_i and its kth nearest neighbour, K is a given density satisfying some regularity conditions, and k is a sequence of integers with the property that log asn     

Policy implications in multiproduct acreage response systems

This article explores the theoretical and empirical issues in unit root nonstationarity for multiproduct acreage response systems. A wheat/barley acreage response system for the praire provinces region of Canada is estimated and the existence of a unit root cannot be rejected empirically. It is shown that while the estimates of this system are very similar whether or not a unit root is assumed, the effects of a one-shot policy shock in the two alternative models are very different.     

Conservative linear programming with mixed multiple objectives

In an ordinary linear program a single objective vector is constructed and one attempts to choose a decision vector to optimize this objective. Often multiple criteria exist or exact estimates for the components of a single objective vector are not entirely clear. For these cases a conservative decision-maker may want to choose an alternative that maximizes the objective value under the worst foreseeable circumstances. Herein we develop a unified framework for applying the maximin criterion to problems with various degrees of uncertainty attached to the objective vector. Three cases are solved via linear programming: (1) Complete Information, (2) Partial Information, and (3) Total Ignorance. It is shown that the functional value of the maximin solution decreases in a convex manner with increasing uncertainty. In addition certain relationships between maximin and efficient solutions are provided. Finally, an extension to integer constrained decision variables is presented.     

Fossil fuel supplies simulation 1972–1979

Fossil fuels are an important source of energy for Ontario Hydro and purchases exceed $100 million per year. This paper describes a computer simulation of the inventory situation over an eight-year period, which is being used to assess the relationship between order flexibility and the target carry-over stocks at the beginning of each shipping season. A simple way of presenting the results for management evaluation is illustrated. Variations of the model are used to assess random influences, such as strikes, and to determine the economic balance between holding costs and stock-outs.     

Gambling and its impacts in a northeastern Minnesota community: An exploratory study

This exploratory study was undertaken to assess the effects of legalized gambling in a northeastern Minnesota community and to inform the state's citizens and decision makers of the impacts of gambling. The community, the types of gambling available, and the types of businesses and organizations involved in gambling are described. Annual (1990) amounts of money won and lost, profit margins for various types of gambling, and the resulting economic and social community impacts are discussed. The most consequential findings are the amounts of money spent on gambling (twice the state's per capita average) and the resulting community revenue losses (nearly $2 million or $105 per person) annually. Nevertheless, many local citizens want even more gambling opportunities. Public policy and future research issues are raised.