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161.
162.
The impact of forecast error magnification on supply chain cost has been well documented. Unlike past studies that measure forecast error in terms of forecast standard deviation, our study extends research to consider the impact of forecast bias, and the complex interaction between these variables. Simulating a two‐stage supply chain using realistic cost data we test the impact of bias magnification comparing two scenarios: one with forecast sharing between retailer and supplier, and one without. We then corroborate findings via survey data. Results show magnification of forecast bias to have a considerably greater impact on supply chain cost than magnification of forecast standard deviation. Particularly damaging is high bias in the presence of high forecast standard deviation. Forecast sharing is found to mitigate the impact of forecast error, however, primarily at higher levels of forecast standard deviation. At low levels of forecast standard deviation the benefits are not significant suggesting that engaging in such mitigation strategies may be less effective when there is little opportunity for improvement in accuracy. Furthermore, forecast sharing is found to be much less effective against high levels of bias. This is an important finding as managers often deliberately bias their forecasts and underscores the importance of exercising caution even with forecast sharing, particularly for forecasts that have inherently large errors. The findings provide a deeper understanding of the impact of forecast errors, suggest limitations of forecast sharing, and offer implications for research and practice alike.  相似文献   
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164.
This paper interrogates the notion of exclusion with a particularfocus upon the experiences of young women. It focuses on thepotential that community processes hold for drawing marginalizedyoung people back into mainstream life. It considers two examplesthat were each concerned with the development of community facilities.One sought to remove young people from an inner city area, theother was intended to provide community facilities for youngpeople. Each adopted a different approach to the participationof young people and had different outcomes. The discussion exploresthe potential that public planning processes hold for encouragingthe participation of young people and for providing effectiveavenues for the diverse realities of young people to be validatedand to contribute to decision-making. The successful participationof young people in public life is a challenge, yet they arerarely encouraged to participate in defining solutions to theproblems they are identified as causing. The experiences reportedin this paper therefore offer insights into effective strategiesfor engaging young people in the resolution of community issues.  相似文献   
165.
Educational aspirations play an important role in educational achievement, understanding more about the factors that shape aspirations should enable educators and others who support young people to better articulate educational ambitions and then to work towards their achievement. Given this, the current paper uses a form of integrative data analysis to examine two issues. First, it identifies that a social ecological measure of resilience mediates the impact which proximal risks and resources have upon young people’s educational aspirations. Second, it establishes that the linkages between these proximal risks and resources, resilience and educational aspirations are similar for young people facing high levels of adversity and young people on more or less normative developmental pathways. The paper draws on a data collected in the first wave of the Youth Transitions Study; a longitudinal mixed-methods investigation of the factors that influence transitions to adulthood for a group of vulnerable teenagers.  相似文献   
166.
With the growing emphasis on professionalism and autonomy in social work practice, the importance of supervision is receiving new attention in the literature. In this paper the “functional” nature of supervision is analyzed through exploration of the emphasis in practice on the administrative and teaching aspects of supervision, and how these concepts appear to have become measures of exercising authority and control rather than promoting independence, while independence is epitomized as the essence of practice. Merton's views on the sociological perspective of functionalism are applied to the debate on authority in supervision versus autonomy in practice.  相似文献   
167.
Affiliation matrices are used to analyze ranking patterns in the 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 USA Today College Football Coaches’ Polls. Results evidence that votes received disproportionately stem from within conference. As a whole, coaches that share a conference give their own teams between 10.61% and 27.83% more of their votes than other coaches. Also, conferences that receive automatic bids to BCS bowls appear to band together in hopes of minimizing the BCS chances of teams from non-automatic-bid conferences. Non-automatic-bid conferences, however, do not band together to rally around non-automatic-bid teams vying for a BCS bid. Lastly, ranking discrepancies are greatest when teams are only marginally qualified for BCS bids. Implications for revisions to the BCS selection system are discussed.  相似文献   
168.
This paper presents findings from a study of the effectiveness of family support services provided through two family centres run by a voluntary agency in partnership with a South Wales local authority. It evaluates the effectiveness of family support services by looking at both the family views and a number of measurable outcomes in terms of reported changes in family functioning and the well‐being of children and parents. Interventions were monitored over 6 months using a pre‐test post‐test non‐equivalent groups design, incorporating quantitative and qualitative methods. Child well‐being, family functioning and some aspects of parental well‐being (related directly to the child) did improve over the intervention period for family support service users. This improvement resulted in the family support service users ‘closing the gap’ with non‐service users (comparison group), to such an extent on some measures, as to be statistically significant. The qualitative evidence confirmed these improvements. The only area that did not improve, according to the quantitative findings, was that of parental well‐being (not related directly to the child). This includes important factors around social support networks, such as parental confidence, social interaction and social contact. The reasons for lack of improvement in these areas are discussed, emphasizing the importance of monitoring the impact of using the service and incorporating a focus on the quality of the nature of the relationship between the worker and the service user.  相似文献   
169.
In this article we report on the findings of a two-part project investigating contemporary issues in sexuality researchers' interaction with journalists. The goal of the project was to explore best practices and suggest curricular and training initiatives for sexuality researchers and journalists that would enhance the accurate dissemination of sexuality research results in the media. We present the results of a survey of a convenience sample of 94 sexuality researchers about their experiences and concerns regarding media coverage and a summary of the main themes that emerged from an invitational conference of sexuality researchers and journalists. In addition, we present some preliminary recommendations for training and best practices. Topics assessed include reporting accuracy; sex researchers' comfort with various topics, media, and journalists; researchers' perceptions of the purpose and content of articles; concern about the impact of media coverage; and training for sexuality researchers.  相似文献   
170.
Moshe Lang was one of the pioneers of family therapy in Australia. Before establishing Williams Road Family Therapy Centre — which offers a range of therapeutic, teaching and consulting services — he worked for many years at Bouverie Clinic. Moshe has been President of the Victorian Association of Family Therapists, a founder of our national conferences (he also gave the very first Opening Address) and a founder of this journal, later becoming Foundation Chairperson of the Editorial Board. He has taught in most centres in Australia and New Zealand and has published several papers characterised by thoughtfulness, humour and lucid, direct expression. For many years he has espoused the value of story telling as a medium for learning, and the importance of exposing one's work for critical appraisal. These concerns are reflected directly in two sections of this journal — Story Comer and Audio-Video Review. More recently he has co-authored with his wife Tesse a book of stories about his experiences as a therapist, entitled Corrupting The Young and Other Stories of a Family Therapist.  相似文献   
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