Forecasting Performance of Information Criteria with Many Macro Series

Stock & Watson (1999) consider the relative quality of different univariate forecasting techniques. This paper extends their study on forecasting practice, comparing the forecasting performance of two popular model selection procedures, the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). This paper considers several topics: how AIC and BIC choose lags in autoregressive models on actual series, how models so selected forecast relative to an AR(4) model, the effect of using a maximum lag on model selection, and the forecasting performance of combining AR(4), AIC, and BIC models with an equal weight.     

A model for extreme wind gusts

Estimates of the largest wind gust that will occur at a given location over a specified period are required by civil engineers. Estimation is usually based on models which are derived from the limiting distributions of maxima of stationary time series and which are fitted to data on extreme gusts. In this paper we develop a model for maximum gusts which also incorporates data on hourly mean speeds through a distributional relationship between maxima and means. This joint model is closely linked to the physical processes which generate the most extreme values and thus provides a mechanism by which data on means can augment those on gusts. It is argued that this increases the credibility of extrapolation in estimates of long period return gusts. The model is shown to provide a good fit to data obtained at a location in northern England and is compared with a more traditional modelling approach, which also performs well for this site.     

Special Forum on the Millennium Development Goals: Introduction

Abstract

The United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), eight time-bound targets aiming, amongst other issues, to reduce extreme poverty, address school enrollment and the prevalence of HIV/AIDS, expire in September 2015. World leaders, civil society organisations, philanthropists, and the private sector are all frantically negotiating and consulting over what will follow them. This special forum in Globalizations is dedicated to questions which explore the politics of the MDGs, and the subsequent discussions which are framing their successor development framework, the Sustainable Development Goals. Most research into the MDGs tends to be technocratic, addressing issues of how we might achieve the goals better, faster, and more efficiently. Questions of what kinds of societies might be created by the achievement of the goals, and what alternative societies people living in poverty might wish to build for themselves tend to get left aside, as do questions which address the fundamentally capitalocentric logics which underpin the MDGs. This special forum introduction briefly explores some of these issues before introducing the contributors, who include leading scholars on the critical politics and international political economy of international development, such as Suzan Ilcan, Philip McMichael, Kathleen Sexsmith, Carl Death, Japhy Wilson, Anita Lacey, Maia Green, and Heloise Weber.     

Envisioning upland futures: Stakeholder responses to scenarios for Europe's mountain landscapes

In a period of agricultural decline in the uplands of Europe, agriculture is ceasing to provide the primary rationale for the organisation, utilisation and functioning of rural space. Policy reform, market trends and changes to the way citizens and consumers think about the countryside all suggest a need for thinking strategically about the future development of these areas. However, without a broad involvement of stakeholders, land use conflicts, and social and cultural conflicts in general, may increase. Involving stakeholders in upland areas can be facilitated by using scenario technique and by discussing alternative futures in local stakeholder panels. In this paper we present four scenarios of land-use change for the year 2030, and their assessments by stakeholder panels in Scotland, France, Norway, Switzerland, Slovakia and Greece. The aim of the paper is to explore the ways in which stakeholders in these locations advocate and assess these scenarios. We also explore how stakeholders in different countries weight the visual landscape impacts, the livelihood and biodiversity aspects of the scenarios in their assessment, and the reasons for their prioritising. The cross-country analysis shows that stakeholders across the study areas are united in their overall rejection of agricultural liberalisation, advocating a production-oriented, but multifunctional and environmentally-friendly agriculture that maintains landscapes and biodiversity.     

The effect of aggregation on nonlinearity

This paper investigates the interaction between aggregation and nonlinearity through a monte carlo study. Various tests for neglected nonlinearity are used to compare the power of the tests for different nonlinear models to different levels of aggregation. Three types of aggregation, namely, cross-sectional aggregation, temporal aggregation and systematic sampling are considered. Aggregation is inclined to simplify nonlinearity. The degree to which nonlinearity is reduced depends on the importance of common factor and extent of the aggregation. The effect is larger when the size of common factor is smaller and when the extent of the aggregation is larger.     

GENDER-RELATED THERAPIST ATTRIBUTIONS IN COUPLES THERAPY: A PRELIMINARY MULTIPLE CASE STUDY INVESTIGATION

Differential treatment by gender has been an ongoing area of concern and uncertainty both in society at large and in clinical research. In this investigation, therapist attributions over the course of therapy for three different couples were coded and analyzed to determine if cause for positive and negative events was assigned differentially to females and males. Additionally, the stability and globality dimensions of the therapist's attributions about the couples were examined for stereotypical gender-related patterns. Results indicate no gender differences in locus of causal attributions but some gender-related patterns in stability and globality dimensions. Implications for both couples therapy and gender bias in couples research are discussed.     

A Description and Analysis of Multi-Sectoral Fostering Practice in the United Kingdom

Correspondence to Clive Sellick, School of Social Work and Psychosocial Sciences, Elizabeth Fry Building, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK. E-mail: c.sellick{at}uea.ac.uk Summary Foster care is the preferred placement option for children andyoung people in the public care system in Britain. In recentyears, fostering has been the subject of extensive policy andresearch review and its practice and services have been widelyexamined. Although still provided principally within the public,local authority sector, there has been a significant growthin the use of independent fostering agencies and a steady useof the fostering services of established voluntary child-careorganizations. This paper reports a recent review of innovativefostering practice in all sectors across the four countriesof the UK, which was commissioned by the Social Care Institutefor Excellence. All British fostering agencies were invitedto submit examples of what they considered to be innovativeor effective in respect of six main categories: foster carerrecruitment and training; retention and job satisfaction; placementprovision; fostering children with complex needs; service provision;and user evaluation. These were examined in the light of relevantresearch knowledge to determine the extent of ‘research-mindedness’amongst fostering agencies. The authors conclude with a critiqueof four key factors which are impacting upon contemporary fosteringpractice in Britain.     

Opportunities and Risks: Models of Good Practice in Commissioning Foster-Care

Local authorities in Britain have been purchasing foster placementsand related services from independent fostering agencies orproviders (IFPs) for many years. These are often made on anunplanned or ‘spot purchased’ basis and many localauthorities have incurred significant budgetary overspends orbeen criticized for poor child-care practice. In parts of theUSA and Australia, governments have required public authoritiesto ‘outsource’ all or most of their foster-careresponsibilities to private or voluntary agencies. Where thesehave been independently evaluated, a number of deficits havebeen identified. A middle position of local authorities andIFPs entering into service level or contractual agreements hasemerged in Britain where each sector attempts to plan and matchits respective needs and services and to predict and controlcosts. This paper explores how some local authority and IFPmanagers have developed working arrangements with one anotherin order to achieve this position. At a time when the Britishgovernment is providing a strong policy steer towards inter-sectorcommissioning in foster-care, this paper suggests a frameworkfor collaboration.     

Looking west

My contribution is based on a reading of the research papers in this project from the viewpoint of architecture and urban history. From these studies, looking beyond the banal architectural forms and the planning, we enter the terrain of Body Corporate Johannesburg. I summarise not only alternative geographies, but also the strange evolution of building types that have entered the market economy. I reference the continental context of rapid, urbanisation on the West Rand.