The office of scientific integrity investigations: The importance of data analysis

Certified Public Accountants serve as independent auditors of financial statements. They perform information‐integrity testing for the economy and society, adding creditability to financial statements prepared by organizations’ management. Investors, creditors, and others rely on these financial statements and the audit report to make business decisions. Auditing work involves gathering evidence (research) and forming an opinion (reporting results) about the “fairness”; of financial statements according to regulatory, legal, and professional rules. As researchers, auditors are subject to a complex network of mechanisms to promote accountability in their work. These mechanisms exist at environmental, professional, and audit‐firm levels. They combine to influence the judgments of individual auditors.     

A Bayesian Time Series Model of Multiple Structural Changes in Level,Trend, and Variance

We investigate whether seasonal-adjustment procedures are, at least approximately, linear data transformations. This question was initially addressed by Young and is important with respect to many issues including estimation of regression models with seasonally adjusted data. We focus on the X-11 program and rely on simulation evidence, involving linear unobserved component autoregressive integrated moving average models. We define a set of properties for the adequacy of a linear approximation to a seasonal-adjustment filter. These properties are examined through statistical tests. Next, we study the effect of X-11 seasonal adjustment on regression statistics assessing the statistical significance of the relationship between economic variables. Several empirical results involving economic data are also reported.     

Probability computations for an extension of the geometric distribution

An extension of the stochastic process associated with the geometric distribution is presented. Combinatorial arguments are used to derive probabilities for various events of interest. Probabilities are approximated by evaluating truncated series. Bounds on the errors of approximation are developed. An example is presented and some additional applications are noted.     

A note on estimation in bernoulli trials with dependence

Finite sample properties of estimators for the parameters of a dependent Bernoulli process are investigated using Monte Carlo techniques. A ratio estimator is proposed for the dependence parameter of the model and is compared to the approximate maximum likelihood estimator given by Klotz. It is shown that both estimators have a downward bias that is extreme in certain cases and that samples well in excess of 200 may be necessary before the asymptotic theory can be applied.     

2008 North American Serials Interest Group Conference: Taking the Sting out of Serials!

Abstract

The twelfth annual MOBIUS Conference was held June 7–9, 2011, at the Holiday Inn Executive Center in Columbia, Missouri. The MOBIUS consortium of Missouri is currently composed of fifty-nine academic libraries, two public libraries, and the Missouri State Library. The conference offered various opportunities, including a keynote address by Meredith Farkas and a networking dessert session on the first night. The second day featured six concurrent sessions, each having six different presentations, along with delicious food, generous door prizes, and the chance to meet with vendors. The third day consisted of four different four-hour post-conference training sessions. Presentations are available for download from the conference Web site.¹     

The relationship between conflict events and commodity prices in Sudan

Though recent literature uncovers linkages between commodity prices and conflict, the causal direction of the relationship remains ambiguous. We attempt to contribute to this strand of research by studying the dynamic relationship of commodity prices and the onsets of conflict events in Sudan. Using monthly data ranging from January 2001 through December 2012, we identify a structural breakpoint in the multivariate time series model of prices of the three staple foods (sorghum, millet, and wheat) and conflict measure (number of conflict events) in September of 2011. Applying structural vector autoregression (SVAR) and linear non-Gaussian acyclic model (LiNGAM), we find that wheat price fluctuation is a root cause of conflict events in Sudan. We recommend several policy and programmatic suggestions structured toward production, subsidy, price regulation and support for rural farmers and consumers to stabilize commodity prices.     

University Presidents’ Perceptions and Practice Regarding the Carrying of Concealed Handguns on College Campuses

Abstract

Objective: To assess the perceptions and practices of a national sample of college and university presidents regarding their support for concealed handguns being carried on college campuses. Participants: The sample for this study consisted of a national random sample of 900 college or university presidents. Methods: In the spring of 2013, a 3-wave mailing procedure was used to ensure an adequate response rate to a valid and reliable questionnaire. Results: The response rate was 46%, more than what was needed based on the power analysis. The vast majority (95%) of respondents were not supportive of carrying concealed handguns on campuses. They perceived there to be more disadvantages than advantages to handguns on campus. However, college administrators were not focused enough on the primary prevention of campus firearm trauma. Conclusions: The findings of this study suggest a number of activities that could be implemented to enhance safety on college and university campuses.