Judgments about the capabilities of city councillors and support for female representation on city council

Building on an earlier analysis of this data set, this study investigates the association between respondents' gender-stereotyping of city councillors with respect to work-related capabilities and their support for female representation on city council under conditions of low information. The earlier research found substantial gender-stereotypic bias in respondents' judgments about the office-related capabilities of male and female city council members. This analysis finds that the more positively women's capabilities to perform in office are evaluated, the more support there is for increased female representation on city council. In general, being “qualified” gets a candidate support but being female, for the most part, does not garner additional support. The double bind of this situation, however, is that female candidates are at a disadvantage because voters (in the sample) see men generically as being more able to meet the demands of serving on city council and increased female representation on city council can not occur unless individual female candidates are elected.     

Styles of Intellectualism in Weber's Historical Sociology

The prevailing concept of the intellectual in contemporary sociology is an ideal type derived from Weber. Intellectuals are understood as politically disinterested, socially unattached individuals, who in their subjective intentions pursue knowledge for its own sake. Weber's ideal type thus provides the action framework for a sociology of knowledge that has been used as a direct counterclaim to Marxist theories of ideology. The author challenges this position, arguing that Weber's sociology of religion embraces important elements of a Marxist theory of ideology and thus presents an ambivalent concept of the intellectual that points toward a historicist sociology of knowledge.     

Assessing risk for rare events

This paper develops a method for assessing the risk for rare events based on the following scenario. There exists a large population with an unknown percentage p of defects. A sample of size N is drawn from the population and, in the sample, 0 defects are drawn. Given these data, we want to determine the probability that no more than n defects will be found in another random sample of N drawn from the population. Estimates on the range of p and n are calculated from a derived joint distribution which depends on p, n and N. Asymptotic risk results based on an infinite sample are then developed. It is shown that these results are applicable even with relatively small sample spaces.     

SIMULATION FOR FIRE DEPARTMENT DEPLOYMENT POLICY ANALYSIS

This paper discusses the use of simulation in the determination and analysis of alternative deployment strategies for urban fire supression systems. The simulation model utilizes the New York City-Rand Institute simulator of fire department operations tailored for use with the Denver Fire department. A distinction is made between static deployment (where mathematical programming methods are used) and dynamic analysis (which employs the simulation model). The simulation model is described, as are its extensive data requirements. The results discuss measures of validation of the simulation and outline the recommendations resulting from this research.     

COMPUTER-BASED SUPPORT OF ORGANIZATIONAL DECISION MAKING*

The central issue of this research is the extent to which computer facilities can be used to support organizational decision-making processes beyond mere performance of information retrieval. This depends upon the extent to which computers can be made to emulate human perceptual and judgmental processes. We present a framework for understanding these cognitive processes and examine how it applies to organizational decisions. Moreover, the framework furnishes a basis for the design of a generalized, intelligent problem processor. This processor is general in the sense of its ability to support a decision maker's activities, regardless of the decision maker's application area (e.g., urban planning, water-quality planning, etc.). It is intelligent in the sense of its ability to comprehend English-like queries and subsequently formulate models, interface appropriate data with those models, and execute the models to produce some facts or expectations about the problem under consideration.     

Gender comparisons of injection drug use practices in shooting galleries

Previous research studies and anecdotal evidence portray shooting galleries as locales that place injection drug users at great risk for HIV infection, drug use and violence. Collectively, these studies highlight the need to intervene with injectors who frequent shooting galleries. However, few researchers have studied an often-forgotten risk group – women injecting drug users who frequent shooting galleries – and compared their risk behaviors to their male counterparts. To address this gap in the research literature and to evaluate the functionality of the shooting gallery as a setting for HIV prevention, we collected data on risk practices from 201 injectors (101 men and 100 women) who were recruited from eight shooting galleries in Miami, Florida. Results indicate that, compared with men, women injectors engaged in a similar variety and frequency of injection risk behaviors and had more shooting companions. While only minor gender differences were apparent, relatively few injectors – male or female – adhered to current recommendations for needle hygiene practices. Needle hygiene practices existed equally among injectors of both sexes, however very few adhered to current recommendations. Furthermore, contrary to common images of shooting galleries, use of other drugs was infrequently reported, episodes of violence or victimization were uncommon, and sexual contact almost never occurred. Operators of shooting galleries, both men and women, indicated their willingness to participate in HIV prevention efforts. Implications of these findings for HIV intervention indicate that (1) there is a great need to intervene with both men and women IDUs who frequent shooting galleries and that (2) shooting galleries can be an optimal setting for HIV prevention.     

Household Telephone Service and Usage Patterns in the United states in 2004: Implications for Telephone Samples

Changes in the U.S. telephone system, especially the rapid growthin the prevalence and use of cell phones, raise concerns aboutundercoverage error in random digit dial (RDD) telephone samples.A supplement to the Current Population Survey (CPS) was conductedin 2004 to examine telephone service and usage in U.S. households.This article explores the potential for biases in RDD surveysresulting from the increases in cell phones by presenting estimatesof the percentage of households with different types of telephoneservice, including the percentage of cell-only households, andgiving demographic profiles of households by type of telephoneservice. Logistic regression models examine variables that predictwhether households are without a telephone or only have cellphones. These predictors may be used for weighting adjustmentsto reduce undercoverage biases. We address some additional issues,including the wording of questions for measuring telephone service,that are relevant if telephone-sampling methods are revisedto include cell phones. The estimates from the CPS supplementare also used to help understand some of the new sampling andweighting problems associated with selecting samples from cellphone numbers.     

AIDING DECISION MAKERS WITH A GENERALIZED DATA BASE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM: AN APPLICATION TO INVENTORY MANAGEMENT *

This paper examines the attributes of a generalized data base management system with respect to its impact on managerial decision making. The discussion focuses upon two primary considerations: 1) the organization of data within a data base such that all intricate relationships are represented; and 2) the utilization of a facile method for non-programming users to interrogate the data base. Examples drawn from the field of material requirements planning are used to illustrate the concepts and potential of the generalized data base management system.     

Sequential importance sampling for nonparametric Bayes models: The next generation

There are two generations of Gibbs sampling methods for semiparametric models involving the Dirichlet process. The first generation suffered from a severe drawback: the locations of the clusters, or groups of parameters, could essentially become fixed, moving only rarely. Two strategies that have been proposed to create the second generation of Gibbs samplers are integration and appending a second stage to the Gibbs sampler wherein the cluster locations are moved. We show that these same strategies are easily implemented for the sequential importance sampler, and that the first strategy dramatically improves results. As in the case of Gibbs sampling, these strategies are applicable to a much wider class of models. They are shown to provide more uniform importance sampling weights and lead to additional Rao-Blackwellization of estimators.