Bias Reduction using Stochastic Approximation

The paper studies stochastic approximation as a technique for bias reduction. The proposed method does not require approximating the bias explicitly, nor does it rely on having independent identically distributed (i.i.d.) data. The method always removes the leading bias term, under very mild conditions, as long as auxiliary samples from distributions with given parameters are available. Expectation and variance of the bias-corrected estimate are given. Examples in sequential clinical trials (non-i.i.d. case), curved exponential models (i.i.d. case) and length-biased sampling (where the estimates are inconsistent) are used to illustrate the applications of the proposed method and its small sample properties.     

On the Exact and Near-Exact Distributions of the Product of Generalized Gamma Random Variables and the Generalized Variance

In this article, the authors first obtain the exact distribution of the logarithm of the product of independent generalized Gamma r.v.’s (random variables) in the form of a Generalized Integer Gamma distribution of infinite depth, where all the rate and shape parameters are well identified. Then, by a routine transformation, simple and manageable expressions for the exact distribution of the product of independent generalized Gamma r.v.’s are derived. The method used also enables us to obtain quite easily very accurate, manageable and simple near-exact distributions in the form of Generalized Near-Integer Gamma distributions. Numerical studies are carried out to assess the precision of different approximations to the exact distribution and they show the high accuracy of the approximations provided by the near-exact distributions. As particular cases of the exact distributions obtained we have the distribution of the product of independent Gamma, Weibull, Frechet, Maxwell-Boltzman, Half-Normal, Rayleigh, and Exponential distributions, as well as the exact distribution of the generalized variance, the exact distribution of discriminants or Vandermonde determinants and the exact distribution of any linear combination of generalized Gumbel distributions, as well as yet the distribution of the product of any power of the absolute value of independent Normal r.v.’s.     

Small area estimation of mean price of habitation transaction using time-series and cross-sectional area-level models

In this paper, a new small domain estimator for area-level data is proposed. The proposed estimator is driven by a real problem of estimating the mean price of habitation transaction at a regional level in a European country, using data collected from a longitudinal survey conducted by a national statistical office. At the desired level of inference, it is not possible to provide accurate direct estimates because the sample sizes in these domains are very small. An area-level model with a heterogeneous covariance structure of random effects assists the proposed combined estimator. This model is an extension of a model due to Fay and Herriot [5], but it integrates information across domains and over several periods of time. In addition, a modified method of estimation of variance components for time-series and cross-sectional area-level models is proposed by including the design weights. A Monte Carlo simulation, based on real data, is conducted to investigate the performance of the proposed estimators in comparison with other estimators frequently used in small area estimation problems. In particular, we compare the performance of these estimators with the estimator based on the Rao–Yu model [23]. The simulation study also accesses the performance of the modified variance component estimators in comparison with the traditional ANOVA method. Simulation results show that the estimators proposed perform better than the other estimators in terms of both precision and bias.     

A grounded theory research approach to building and testing TQM theory in operations management

Total quality management (TQM) has continued to develop as a strategic business improvement approach in organisations and within the Operations Management literature. Strategic TQM is a dynamic phenomenon, reflecting the complexity and technology development in the business environment. Therefore, this conception of TQM has led to significant challenges with regards to developing suitable models and research methodology where traditional, and normative research data, includes survey responses associated with deductive theory and testing. Such data, and its use, is often premised on cause and effect rationality and fails to supply deep rich data to address meanings, phenomena and complex socio-political events, which is a feature of strategic TQM.     

Capturing touch in parent–infant interaction: A comparison of methods

Naturally occurring high levels of caregiver touch promote offspring development in many animal species. Yet, caregiver touch remains a relatively understudied topic in human development, possibly due to challenges of measuring this means of interaction. While parental reports (e.g., questionnaires, diaries) are easy to collect, they may be subject to biases and memory limitations. In contrast, observing touch in a short session of parent–child interaction in the lab may not be representative of touch interaction in daily life. In the present study, we compared parent reports (one-off questionnaires and diary) and observation-based methods in a sample of German 6- to 13-month-olds and their primary caregivers (n = 71). In an attempt to characterize touching behaviors across a broad range of contexts, we measured touch both during play and while the parent was engaged in another activity. We found that context affected both the quantity and types of touch used in interaction. Parent-reported touch was moderately associated with touch observed in parent–child interactions and more strongly with touch used during play. We conclude that brief one-off questionnaires are a good indicator of touch in parent–child interaction, yet they may be biased toward representing particular daily activities and particular types of touch.     

Welfare analysis of a tax reform for Germany: a comparison of the unitary and collective models of household labour supply

We compare results of a tax reform analysis obtained with the collective and unitary models of household behaviour. We simulate real world micro-data by means of a collective approach, using a compound procedure of estimation and calibration based on the 1998 wave of the German socio-economic panel. We estimate a unitary model on this ‘collective’ data set. Investigating a move from joint to individual taxation on the basis of both models, we obtain important discrepancies between predicted adjustments to labour supply and distortions in the welfare analysis of the reform on the basis of unitary estimates.      

Consistent procedures for multiclass classification of discrete diffusion paths

The recent advent of modern technology has generated a large number of datasets which can be frequently modeled as functional data. This paper focuses on the problem of multiclass classification for stochastic diffusion paths. In this context we establish a closed formula for the optimal Bayes rule. We provide new statistical procedures which are built either on the plug-in principle or on the empirical risk minimization principle. We show the consistency of these procedures under mild conditions. We apply our methodologies to the parametric case and illustrate their accuracy with a simulation study through examples.     

Portuguese adopted adolescents' perception of attachment relationships to parents

The establishment of emotional bonds is one of the most important tasks of the adoptive family. Most research about attachment in adoption focuses on young adopted children, as opposed to adoptees in other stages of development. The present study aims at assessing the adopted adolescents' self‐perception of attachment relationships with their adoptive parents, by pairing them with a group of institutionalized adolescents and another one of adolescents in the community. One hundred sixty‐five adolescents (55 adopted, 55 in residential care, and 55 living with their birth family), aged 12 to 19, participated in this study. Data were collected using the Inventory of Parent and Peer Attachment to assess attachment relationships with parents on three dimensions: trust, communication, and alienation. The results showed that adoptees perceived their relationship with their parents in a similar way to peers in the community and presented higher results when compared to institutionalized adolescents in trust and communication and lower scores in alienation. The results highlighted the relevance of family context experiences and suggested that adoption can offer the possibility of building a secure attachment relationship, which is not the case in the context of collective care, as happens within institutionalized care.     

Stochastically Modeling Listeria Monocytogenes Growth in Farm Tank Milk

This article presents a Listeria monocytogenes growth model in milk at the farm bulk tank stage. The main objective was to judge the feasibility and value to risk assessors of introducing a complex model, including a complete thermal model, within a microbial quantitative risk assessment scheme. Predictive microbiology models are used under varying temperature conditions to predict bacterial growth. Input distributions are estimated based on data in the literature, when it is available. If not, reasonable assumptions are made for the considered context. Previously published results based on a Bayesian analysis of growth parameters are used. A Monte Carlo simulation that forecasts bacterial growth is the focus of this study. Three scenarios that take account of the variability and uncertainty of growth parameters are compared. The effect of a sophisticated thermal model taking account of continuous variations in milk temperature was tested by comparison with a simplified model where milk temperature was considered as constant. Limited multiplication of bacteria within the farm bulk tank was modeled. The two principal factors influencing bacterial growth were found to be tank thermostat regulation and bacterial population growth parameters. The dilution phenomenon due to the introduction of new milk was the main factor affecting the final bacterial concentration. The results show that a model that assumes constant environmental conditions at an average temperature should be acceptable for this process. This work may constitute a first step toward exposure assessment for L. monocytogenes in milk. In addition, this partly conceptual work provides guidelines for other risk assessments where continuous variation of a parameter needs to be taken into account.