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361.
Recent developments in modeling preferences: Uncertainty and ambiguity 总被引:11,自引:2,他引:11
In subjective expected utility (SEU), the decision weights people attach to events are their beliefs about the likelihood of events. Much empirical evidence, inspired by Ellsberg (1961) and others, shows that people prefer to bet on events they know more about, even when their beliefs are held constant. (They are averse to ambiguity, or uncertainty about probability.) We review evidence, recent theoretical explanations, and applications of research on ambiguity and SEU.Thanks to Jonathan Baron, James Dow, Peter Fishburn, Itzhak Gilboa, Gordon Hazen, Howard Kunreuther, Tomas Phillipson, David Schmeidler, Amos Tversky, the editor, and several anonymous referees for corrections and helpful comments. Camerer's contribution to this work was supported by the National Science Foundation, grant no. SES 88-09299. Weber's contribution was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsge-meinschaft, grant no. WE 993/5-1. 相似文献
362.
Anna Ziersch Christine Putland Catherine Palmer Colin MacDougall Fran Baum 《The Australian journal of social issues》2007,42(4):549-562
In this paper we report on a South Australian study of perceptions of safety and aspects of neighbourhood life including social capital which involved the analysis of 2400 self‐completed questionnaires. A path analysis found that perceptions of safety were directly associated with gender, age, perceptions of neighbourhood pollution and neighbourhood trust, and indirectly associated with age, neighbourhood pollution and neighbourhood connections. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of the findings for public policy. 相似文献
363.
L'économie informelle fournit l'essentiel de l'emploi dans nombre de pays émergents. Selon la théorie de la régulation, l'activité économique est régie par un ensemble complexe de règles formelles et informelles. Les auteurs examinent, à partir du cas du Mozambique, les éléments qui favorisent ou entravent la transition vers l'économie formelle, ainsi que les diverses formes de régulation, en s'appuyant sur une enquěte qualitative conjuguant observation directe et entretiens avec des personnalités locales. Les données recueillies font apparaître un rôle ambivalent de l'Etat, qui se montre parfois volontariste et soucieux de réformer la réglementation et les institutions et parfois partisan du statu quo. 相似文献
364.
Richard J. Boys Holly F. Ainsworth Colin S. Gillespie 《Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics》2018,60(2):157-173
Stochastic kinetic models are often used to describe complex biological processes. Typically these models are analytically intractable and have unknown parameters which need to be estimated from observed data. Ideally we would have measurements on all interacting chemical species in the process, observed continuously in time. However, in practice, measurements are taken only at a relatively few time‐points. In some situations, only very limited observation of the process is available, for example settings in which experimenters can only observe noisy observations on the proportion of cells that are alive. This makes the inference task even more problematic. We consider a range of data‐poor scenarios and investigate the performance of various computationally intensive Bayesian algorithms in determining the posterior distribution using data on proportions from a simple birth‐death process. 相似文献
365.
Colin Dyer 《The Australian journal of social issues》1971,6(2):145-155
An overview is given of some salient demographic characteristics in the dramatically changing socio-economic environment of France. Examination of social security and medical insurance provision shows how social welfare benefits have become more or less vital in the French family's maintenance of improved living standards. It is concluded that French social security services now compare favourably with provisions in other countries, but that birth-rate problems and other social effects of rapid developmental change remain to be overcome. 相似文献
366.
This paper addresses the question of how the informal learning processes of angel investors shape the way in which they assess new investment opportunities. Previous research has suggested that angels learn from their previous investment activity. However, the measurement of investment experience as a function of years of investing and number of investments made does not take into account how, and to what extent, learning occurs and how it impacts investors’ decision-making. To address this deficiency, we suggest a dynamic model of informal learning which incorporates the informal learning typology developed by Schugurensky and extended by Bennett, as a conceptual framework to understand how learning experiences impact angel investment decisions. Based on interviews and verbal protocol analysis with 30 investors, we demonstrate how learning impacts learning processes and outcomes as angels assess an investment opportunity. The findings highlight the importance of supporting angel learning with support for angel groups and angel training programmes. 相似文献