Recent developments in modeling preferences: Uncertainty and ambiguity

In subjective expected utility (SEU), the decision weights people attach to events are their beliefs about the likelihood of events. Much empirical evidence, inspired by Ellsberg (1961) and others, shows that people prefer to bet on events they know more about, even when their beliefs are held constant. (They are averse to ambiguity, or uncertainty about probability.) We review evidence, recent theoretical explanations, and applications of research on ambiguity and SEU.Thanks to Jonathan Baron, James Dow, Peter Fishburn, Itzhak Gilboa, Gordon Hazen, Howard Kunreuther, Tomas Phillipson, David Schmeidler, Amos Tversky, the editor, and several anonymous referees for corrections and helpful comments. Camerer's contribution to this work was supported by the National Science Foundation, grant no. SES 88-09299. Weber's contribution was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsge-meinschaft, grant no. WE 993/5-1.     

Face à l'économie informelle au Mozambique: volontarisme ou maintien du statu quo?

L'économie informelle fournit l'essentiel de l'emploi dans nombre de pays émergents. Selon la théorie de la régulation, l'activité économique est régie par un ensemble complexe de règles formelles et informelles. Les auteurs examinent, à partir du cas du Mozambique, les éléments qui favorisent ou entravent la transition vers l'économie formelle, ainsi que les diverses formes de régulation, en s'appuyant sur une enquěte qualitative conjuguant observation directe et entretiens avec des personnalités locales. Les données recueillies font apparaître un rôle ambivalent de l'Etat, qui se montre parfois volontariste et soucieux de réformer la réglementation et les institutions et parfois partisan du statu quo.     

Thinking Beyond Generations: On the Future of Revolution Theory

A recent exchange between Allinson (2019) and Abrams (2019) on the current state of revolution theory rests on the assumption that the generational, backward-looking view of revolution studies is also a fruitful way of thinking of the field's present and future. We argue, in contrast, that while a generational approach has important benefits, it also contains shortcomings that may lead the future of revolution studies in less fruitful directions. We examine where an overreliance on generational thinking has led us, provide an exploratory sketch of how we can begin to move beyond generational thinking, and imagine a new future for the study of revolution.     

Business Angel Investment as an Informal Learning Process: Does Experience Matter?

This paper addresses the question of how the informal learning processes of angel investors shape the way in which they assess new investment opportunities. Previous research has suggested that angels learn from their previous investment activity. However, the measurement of investment experience as a function of years of investing and number of investments made does not take into account how, and to what extent, learning occurs and how it impacts investors’ decision-making. To address this deficiency, we suggest a dynamic model of informal learning which incorporates the informal learning typology developed by Schugurensky and extended by Bennett, as a conceptual framework to understand how learning experiences impact angel investment decisions. Based on interviews and verbal protocol analysis with 30 investors, we demonstrate how learning impacts learning processes and outcomes as angels assess an investment opportunity. The findings highlight the importance of supporting angel learning with support for angel groups and angel training programmes.     

Book review

Stewart, J., Econometrics. (Philip Man, London, 1991.) Pp. viii + 331. $27.95.     

Moment closure based parameter inference of stochastic kinetic models

Parameter inference for stochastic kinetic models is a topic that spans many disciplines. Although it is possible to carry out exact inference using partial observations of a stochastic process, it is often computationally impractical. In this paper we use the moment closure approximation of the underlying stochastic process as a fast approximation of the likelihood. We show that this approximation is fast and accurate, even when the population numbers are small.     

INDIVIDUALS WITH INTELLECTUAL DISABILITY AND MENTAL ILLNESS: A LITERATURE REVIEW

This review highlights the urgency for a seamless and co‐ordinated approach to service delivery for people with intellectual disability and mental illness. There is emerging evidence of the high prevalence of mental illness in persons with intellectual disability. The notion that people with intellectual disability can have mental illness has only been recently acknowledged. Furthermore, people with intellectual disability also experience a wide range of psychiatric disorders often seen in the general population. Despite of recent developments in treatment options for these people, many of them continue to experience barriers in accessing mental health services.     

Neighbourhood Life,Social Capital and Perceptions of Safety in the Western Suburbs of Adelaide

In this paper we report on a South Australian study of perceptions of safety and aspects of neighbourhood life including social capital which involved the analysis of 2400 self‐completed questionnaires. A path analysis found that perceptions of safety were directly associated with gender, age, perceptions of neighbourhood pollution and neighbourhood trust, and indirectly associated with age, neighbourhood pollution and neighbourhood connections. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of the findings for public policy.