Futures research—Working with management teams

This paper discusses ways of looking at the future, with particular emphasis on the future as a ‘conscious dream’, and discusses an approach by which conscious dreams can be represented as explicit models. A case study is given of the use of this method with three housing managers who were enabled by it to articulate their own images of the future and understand each others' images. The benefits to be gained from such a procedure are discussed.     

Optimal voting rules for two-member tenure committees

A tenure committee first votes on whether to hire a candidate; if it does, it receives an informative performance signal, and then votes on whether to tenure the candidate; rejection at either stage returns the committee to a candidate pool, endogenising the value of the outside option. A candidate’s fate depends only on the behaviour of two ‘weather-vane’ committee members. Committee members may vote against favoured candidates if the weather-vane is opposed; enthusiastic assessments by one of these weather-vanes may harm a candidate’s chances by increasing others’ thresholds for hiring him; sunk time costs may lead voters who voted against hiring to vote for tenuring him, even after a poor probationary performance. For two member committees that are patient and perceptive, the optimal voting rule is a (weak) majority at the hiring stage and unanimity at the tenure stage; when such committees are impatient or imperceptive, the double (weak) majority rule is optimal. Perversely, the performance of a patient, imperceptive committee improves as its perceptiveness further declines. Consistent with practice, falling threshold rules are not optimal. Results on optimal voting rules are also presented in limit cases as committee members’ beliefs become more correlated. Finally, we compare the model to a discrete-time European options model.     

Depression and coping mechanisms in prisoners

In an attempt to identify the number, nature, and effectiveness of coping mechanisms used by long-term prisoners to cope with stress, a sample of inmates was administered scales measuring depression, coping strategies, and sensation-seeking. It was found that the prisoners' depression scores were very high, placing several inmates into the category of severe clinical depression. However, the number of coping mechanisms used by prisoners to deal with a stressful situation was not reflected by the depression scores. Extensive use of coping mechanisms was, if anything, associated with an increased level of depression. The expected relationship between sensation-seeking and proneness to depression in prison failed to emerge.     

Worth a Third Read: Six ANZJFT Readers Remember

If we do not sometimes look back over our shoulders to remind ourselves of the ANZJFT's past achievements, we may forget, and newcomers may never be stimulated to explore earlier contributions for themselves. For this reason, six subscribers were asked to write five hundred words in answer to the question ‘Over the time you have been reading the Journal, what article sticks in your memory the most?’ The one restriction that was placed upon their choice was that if they found themselves unable to choose between two articles, they were to discuss the older of the two, to help assure a wider spread.     

‘Violent’ deaths of children in England and Wales and the major developed countries 1974–2002: possible evidence of improving child protection?

Child protection services are criticised for failing to prevent abuse but demonstrating successful prevention is impossible as it is trying to prove a ‘negative’. The alternative is to examine ‘failures’, i.e. the ‘violent’ deaths of children (0–14 years) to indicate whether matters are improving or deteriorating. This paper uses the latest World Health Organisation data to compare children's ‘violent’ deaths in England and Wales with those in other major developed countries. To account for possible ‘hidden’ under‐reported abuse deaths, undetermined, i.e. ‘other external causes of death’ (OECD) and fatal accidents and adverse events (AAE), deaths are also analysed along with homicides, to compare all ‘violence‐related’ deaths between 1974–76 and 2000–02. England and Wales infant (<1 year) homicide rates were annually 57 per million but fell to 17 per million, a 74% fall. Infant AAE deaths fell in every country with England and Wales falling from 341 per million to 71 per million, a 76% reduction. Both these results were significantly better than those of eight other major developed countries, although England and Wales infant OECD at 26 per million, were high compared to the major developed countries. In the 1970s, combined ‘violent’ deaths of all children (0–14 years) (homicide, OECD and AAE) in England and Wales were 203 per million, they are now 61 per million, a 70% decline with only Italy having lower rates. The worst rates were in the USA which had the highest combined ‘violent’ death rate. These overall results in the major reductions of ‘violence‐related’ deaths in England and Wales can be a boost to the morale of front‐line staff and provide the public with an indication of the progress being made. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Effects of Financial Incentives in Experiments: A Review and Capital-Labor-Production Framework

We review 74 experiments with no, low, or high performance-based financial incentives. The modal result has no effect on mean performance (though variance is usually reduced by higher payment). Higher incentive does improve performance often, typically judgment tasks that are responsive to better effort. Incentives also reduce “presentation” effects (e.g., generosity and risk-seeking). Incentive effects are comparable to effects of other variables, particularly “cognitive capital” and task “production” demands, and interact with those variables, so a narrow-minded focus on incentives alone is misguided. We also note that no replicated study has made rationality violations disappear purely by raising incentives.     

A critical evaluation of competing representations of the relationship between formal and informal work

Analysing the extensive literature on informal work reveals multiple, often contradictory, views regarding its relationship with formal work. The aim of this paper is to evaluate critically these competing claims. Evaluating in turn the predominant views of informal work as a residue, by-product, complement and/or alternative to formal work, reveals that universal generalizations are not possible and that all of these articulations only apply in specific contexts. However, rather than simply conclude that these contrasting readings of the relationship between informal and formal work are therefore context-bound generalizations, two features common to all these perspectives are identified that necessitate a more fundamental rethinking of the relationship between formal and informal work. These relate to the way in which all firstly, simplistically attribute one form of work with positive features (e.g. modernization, virtue and progress) and the other with negative attributes (e.g. tradition, backwardness, exploitation) and, secondly, delineate formal and informal work as discrete and separate entities. The paper concludes by setting out a research agenda to not only highlight the political values underpinning each of these representations but also achieve a fuller and finer-grained understanding of the relations between informal and formal work.     

Variable Selection in Linear Mixed Models Using an Extended Class of Penalties

There is an emerging need to advance linear mixed model technology to include variable selection methods that can simultaneously choose and estimate important effects from a potentially large number of covariates. However, the complex nature of variable selection has made it difficult for it to be incorporated into mixed models. In this paper we extend the well known class of penalties and show that they can be integrated succinctly into a linear mixed model setting. Under mild conditions, the estimator obtained from this mixed model penalised likelihood is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. A simulation study reveals that the extended family of penalties achieves varying degrees of estimator shrinkage depending on the value of one of its parameters. The simulation study also shows there is a link between the number of false positives detected and the number of true coefficients when using the same penalty. This new mixed model variable selection (MMVS) technology was applied to a complex wheat quality data set to determine significant quantitative trait loci (QTL).