Variable Selection in Linear Mixed Models Using an Extended Class of Penalties

There is an emerging need to advance linear mixed model technology to include variable selection methods that can simultaneously choose and estimate important effects from a potentially large number of covariates. However, the complex nature of variable selection has made it difficult for it to be incorporated into mixed models. In this paper we extend the well known class of penalties and show that they can be integrated succinctly into a linear mixed model setting. Under mild conditions, the estimator obtained from this mixed model penalised likelihood is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. A simulation study reveals that the extended family of penalties achieves varying degrees of estimator shrinkage depending on the value of one of its parameters. The simulation study also shows there is a link between the number of false positives detected and the number of true coefficients when using the same penalty. This new mixed model variable selection (MMVS) technology was applied to a complex wheat quality data set to determine significant quantitative trait loci (QTL).     

Inter‐agency Cooperation and New Approaches to Employability

This article examines the role of inter‐agency cooperation, which is one form of ‘partnership’, in new approaches to employability in the UK. The article articulates a ‘model for effective partnership working’ on employability. This model is applied first in a general review of employability policy and then to discuss case study research on the recent ‘Pathways to Work’ and ‘Working Neighbourhoods’ pilots. It is argued that successful partnerships need a clear strategic focus based on a necessity for inter‐agency cooperation and institutional arrangements that allow for shared ownership, trust and mutualism, and flexibility in resource‐sharing. While some of these factors are apparent in UK employability services, an over‐reliance on contractualism and centralized organizational structures may undermine partnership‐based approaches. Many of the success factors associated with effective partnership working appeared to be in place, even though the role of the Public Employment Service was fundamentally different in each case (as a key actor in implementing the first pilot, but largely withdrawing from the implementation role in the second). The article concludes by outlining the relevance of this model and the case study findings to discussions of the future development of employability policies and related partnership working.     

The Irish macroeconomic response to an external shock with an application to stress testing

The Irish economy has recently endured a period of turbulence as a result of the collapse of the domestic property market bubble and the onset of the global financial crisis. There are two critical vulnerabilities in the Irish economy at present. The first is the potential for sluggish economic growth due to a slowdown in external demand, which impacts on the government's ability to meet budgetary targets. The second concern relates to the financial stability of the banking system given the escalating mortgage crisis. Our results show that Irish economic growth is highly sensitive to the performance of its trading partners and any international slowdown will hinder Ireland's growth prospects. The model used suggests that the appropriate policy response is to pursue further gains in competitiveness. We estimate the impact of an external slowdown on mortgage delinquency using a new dataset on the loan books of the commercial banking sector. The results suggest that a negative one standard deviation shock to US GDP growth leads to an increase of 1600 in the number of mortgages in arrears for at least 90 days. Arrears are driven by unemployment and negative equity in the model. We discuss policies to contain the mortgage crisis by improving these intermediate target variables.     

政治的再国家化与国家的再政治化——新自由主义、经济需要与竞争国家的兴起

切尼和雅索普分别把20世纪70年代以来发达资本主义经济体中的民族-国家的当代发展,描述为竞争国家的兴起和熊彼特式的工作福利国家的凸显.虽然这两种说明使用了部分相同术语,但它们却是根本不同的,需要对它们很好地描述但没有充分解释的国家转型过程进行再政治化思考.     

What Can We Afford For the National Health Service?

The annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is here used as a standard measure against which to compare expenditure on Health & Welfare and Defence budgets, between Conservative and Labour governments and the four largest EC countries 1973/4-1993/4. An analysis of Mrs Thatcher's governments’ expenditure shows that proportionately less GDP went to General Government Expenditure (GGE) than all the other European Community countries. Mrs Thatcher's first government maintained the unprecedented level of GDP devoted to Health reached in 1978/79, but successive administrations began to reduce, and, plan further reductions of GDP for the NHS. Relative decreases of GDP were also found in relation to expenditure on Social Security, Housing, and Personal Social Services and Defence. The governments of France, Germany and Italy provided more of their GDP to health than Britain, whilst at the same time we spent more on Defence and Law & Order & Public Safety. This raises the question: what can we afford for the NHS? A review of demographic changes shows that the British infant and elderly population, who are associated with demands for health, were proportionately more numerous than in France, Germany and Italy. This suggests the need for more UK health expenditure if Britain is to meet current and future needs.     

The anatomy of a deception: Fraud and finesse in the Mock Auction sales ‘con’

In this paper we analyze recordings of the Mock Auction sales con and describe the various rhetorical and performative strategies employed by the seller/deceiver to accomplish sales success. Two features that distinguish this con from others are that sales are obtained from a crowd of shoppers and that the victims rarely complain after they have been deceived. We outline the principal skills that are brought into play by these salespeople to obtain sales and to manage the audiences' quietude. We show that the Mock Auction is, fundamentally, a social and interactional accomplishment.     

Ruling Classes and Agents of the State: Formal and Informal Networks of Power

This article examines the power–sharing in England in the later Middle Ages considering definitions of where public authority and private power begin and end. It is argued that the English polity resembled more a multiple corporation than a joint-stock company; private and public interest were as inextricably confused as were public and private authority. The essay answers questions provoked by this observation. Who serve whom? Who managed whom? Was the government of England rendered less effectual by the disputes among kings, nobles and gentlemen as to what share of power each was to have? Was ‘England’ damaged by the strife and the striving of individuals, whether royal, noble, or gentle, which the untidy meshing of private and landed power with public and governmental authority made if not inevitable then certainly commonplace?     

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