Comparison of Four New General Classes of Search Designs

A factor screening experiment identifies a few important factors from a large list of factors that potentially influence the response. If a list consists of m factors each at three levels, a design is a subset of all possible 3 ^m runs. This paper considers the problem of finding designs with small numbers of runs, using the search linear model introduced in Srivastava (1975). The paper presents four new general classes of these 'search designs', each with 2 m −1 runs, which permit, at most, two important factors out of m factors to be searched for and identified. The paper compares the designs for 4 ≤ m ≤ 10, using arithmetic and geometric means of the determinants, traces and maximum characteristic roots of particular matrices. Two of the designs are found to be superior in all six criteria studied. The four designs are identical for m = 3 and this design is an optimal design in the class of all search designs under the six criteria. The four designs are also identical for m = 4 under some row and column permutations.     

Stories of Wreck Bay

This is the first plenary address by an Aboriginal woman at an Australian Family Therapy Conference. The author reminisces about her early life and highlights changes in her community, giving many vignettes of her own work with Aboriginal people. A recurrent theme is the Aboriginal experience of Government control, and the impact of the dreaded Aboriginal Protection Board, which for decades by deliberate policy removed Aboriginal children to institutions and non-Aboriginal foster families. (Editor)     

Strategic planning for public relations

Public relations is a key activity for most chairmen of public companies and nationalized industries. It is somewhat suprising therefore how few large companies consider developing an explicit public relations strategy as part of their overall business plan. The reason for this may be partly due to the relatively low regard which senior line managers have for public relations managers and partly because there is a lack of understanding of the nature and use of public relations as a tool of strategic management. The purpose of this article is to discuss why and how business planners should pay more attention to developing explicit public relations strategies for their organizations.     

An Adaptive Regional Input-Output Model and its Application to the Assessment of the Economic Cost of Katrina

This article proposes a new modeling framework to investigate the consequences of natural disasters and the following reconstruction phase. Based on input-output tables, its originalities are (1) the taking into account of sector production capacities and of both forward and backward propagations within the economic system; and (2) the introduction of adaptive behaviors. The model is used to simulate the response of the economy of Louisiana to the landfall of Katrina. The model is found consistent with available data, and provides two important insights. First, economic processes exacerbate direct losses, and total costs are estimated at $149 billion, for direct losses equal to $107 billion. When exploring the impacts of other possible disasters, it is found that total losses due to a disaster affecting Louisiana increase nonlinearly with respect to direct losses when the latter exceed $50 billion. When direct losses exceed $200 billion, for instance, total losses are twice as large as direct losses. For risk management, therefore, direct losses are insufficient measures of disaster consequences. Second, positive and negative backward propagation mechanisms are essential for the assessment of disaster consequences, and the taking into account of production capacities is necessary to avoid overestimating the positive effects of reconstruction. A systematic sensitivity analysis shows that, among all parameters, the overproduction capacity in the construction sector and the adaptation characteristic time are the most important.     

"You are weeping for that which has been your delight": to experience and recover from grief

To explore how people experience grief and what factors are perceived as facilitating successful grief work, a survey was distributed to people who had completed a grief recovery course. The results showed that emotions, cognitions, physical expressions, and behaviors all characterize grief, but that emotions are the most central component. The course brought relief and was regarded most favorably by those having at least 1 year between the grief trigger event and participation in the course. Writing a letter in which course participants express their feelings to the loss object was perceived as the most successful aspect of the course. The letter might help with grief recovery by bringing aspects that have not been dealt with into conscious awareness.     

A Scale of Risk

This article proposes a conceptual framework for ranking the relative gravity of diverse risks. This framework identifies the moral considerations that should inform the evaluation and comparison of diverse risks. A common definition of risk includes two dimensions: the probability of occurrence and the associated consequences of a set of hazardous scenarios. This article first expands this definition to include a third dimension: the source of a risk. The source of a risk refers to the agents involved in the creation or maintenance of a risk and captures a central moral concern about risks. Then, a scale of risk is proposed to categorize risks along a multidimensional ranking, based on a comparative evaluation of the consequences, probability, and source of a given risk. A risk is ranked higher on the scale the larger the consequences, the greater the probability, and the more morally culpable the source. The information from the proposed comparative evaluation of risks can inform the selection of priorities for risk mitigation.     

Strengthening migration governance: the UN as ‘wingman’*

ABSTRACT

The plight of desperate migrants crossing the Mediterranean reached an inflection point in 2015 when an estimated 800 migrants drowned in a single day, painfully exposing dysfunctions in how States, regions, and the international community as a whole seek to govern a world with increased mobility of persons. By examining the response to the migration and refugee crises of recent years through the lens of the United Nations (UN), this article describes how States and the UN system are challenged to reconsider traditional hierarchies of power and influence since unilateral State action will not solve the migration problem. Migration solutions, particularly those providing greater protections for migrants in vulnerable situations, will require ‘coalitions of the willing’ between States, inter-governmental organisations, local governments and non-state actors. Still emerging, such coalitions are interdependent; and their objectives will be the result of negotiating and bargaining amongst their members. They reflect multi-level governance in the collective handling of migration, revealing a more complex interaction, one in which local authorities and non-state actors are in some instances bypassing State-led interventions. For its part, the UN – armed with recent institutional changes that provide it with more centralised ‘orchestration’ capacities – is best suited to serve in a ‘wingman’ function, buttressing rather than leading such coalitions.