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Randall Collins 《Sociological Theory》2004,22(1):53-87
Conflict produces group solidarity in four phases: (1) an initial few days of shock and idiosyncratic individual reactions to attack; (2) one to two weeks of establishing standardized displays of solidarity symbols; (3) two to three months of high solidarity plateau; and (4) gradual decline toward normalcy in six to nine months. Solidarity is not uniform but is clustered in local groups supporting each other's symbolic behavior. Actual solidarity behaviors are performed by minorities of the population, while vague verbal claims to performance are made by large majorities. Commemorative rituals intermittently revive high emotional peaks; participants become ranked according to their closeness to a center of ritual attention. Events, places, and organizations claim importance by associating themselves with national solidarity rituals and especially by surrounding themselves with pragmatically ineffective security ritual. Conflicts arise over access to centers of ritual attention; clashes occur between pragmatists deritualizing security and security zealots attempting to keep up the level of emotional intensity. The solidarity plateau is also a hysteria zone; as a center of emotional attention, it attracts ancillary attacks unrelated to the original terrorists as well as alarms and hoaxes. In particular historical circumstances, it becomes a period of atrocities . 相似文献
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The aim of this study was to examine the interaction between aging and 10 years of racing in endurance runners. Race-time data from 194 runners who had completed 10 consecutive 56-km ultramarathons were obtained. The runners were either 20.5 +/- 0.7, 30.0 +/- 1.0, 39.9 +/- 0.9, or 49.4 +/- 1.0 years old at their first race. Each runner's race speed was determined for each race over the 10 years. Data were analyzed using repeated-measures ANOVA, one-way ANOVA, and independent t tests and showed that performance improved and declined at greater rates for younger runners; younger runners had a greater capacity for improvement than older runners; approximately 4 years were required to reach peak racing speed, regardless of age; it was not possible to compete at peak speed for more than a few years; and the combined effects of 10 years of aging and racing neither improve nor worsen net performance. In conclusion, these data suggest that although these runners showed similar patterns of change in race speed over a 10-year period, the extent of change in performance was greater in younger than in older runners. 相似文献
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Sean Collins 《商业与经济统计学杂志》2013,31(3):267-277
This article reviews several techniques useful for forming point and interval predictions in regression models with Box-Cox transformed variables. The techniques reviewed—plug-in, mean squared error analysis, predictive likelihood, and stochastic simulation—take account of nonnormality and parameter uncertainty in varying degrees. A Monte Carlo study examining their small-sample accuracy indicates that uncertainty about the Box–Cox transformation parameter may be relatively unimportant. For certain parameters, deterministic point predictions are biased, and plug-in prediction intervals are also biased. Stochastic simulation, as usually carried out, leads to badly biased predictions. A modification of the usual approach renders stochastic simulation predictions largely unbiased. 相似文献
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