Demographics: people and markets

The basics of demography are now basic to us business as well. Demographics combine demographic data with socioeconomic and geographic factors to help business and other managers know the market for their goods and services. This pamphlet explains market, product, and site analyses, discusses data sources and resources, and includes case studies involving major corporations. Post-war population trends have had an enormous impact on consumer and labor markets, bringing home to business the importance of taking advantage of demographic shifts. Advances in computerized access to data describing changes and increased consciousness of their economic significance has spurred the application of demographic knowledge by managers and the growth of the demographics information industry. The pamphlet describes the resources and methods of demographics including the creation and use of demographic data products.     

The effects of the age and structure of population on family change]

The age structure of a population is one basic factor of population research. It is not only affected by birth, death, immigration, and marriage, but it also reflected in changes of family size. The article analyzed it from two aspects: (1) the age structure of population acts on the size and structure of the family. The younger the age structure, the larger the family size. Otherwise, it is the opposite. According to the 1982 census, 35.4% of the population was 0-14 years in rural areas, and average family size was 4.6; but in urban areas 26.0% of the population was 0-14 years and family size was 3.9. The family was characterized as a nuclear family as industrialization in economic development increased and the population aged. In the 1982 census, 64.7% were nuclear family and 6% were aging population in China. Three- generation families (or more) have decreased dramatically. The change of family size and structure is affected by change of internal family age structure. The younger population (0-14 years) is dependent and 90% live with their parents. The adult population (15-59) years are more affected by marriage, birth and social economic action. Families are established in this age period and give much more effect to fertility. The aging population (over 60) years is facing changes. They appear to be a "Defect" family because the wife or husband has passed away. They change from independent to dependent. 78.3% population over 60 years were dependent on children or social welfare, only 21.7% were independent according to the survey in Beijing Changping County.     

An analytical paradigm for the analysis of national inmigration patterns

This study proposes and demonstrates an analytic paradigm based upon a substantive categorization of a set of inmigration correlates. It exemplifies the notion of categorizing, analyzing according to the categorization, and subsequently discussing the phenomenon in more depth. The paradigm has 2 steps: 1) the variables are categorized according to the cells resulting from the intersection of a preferably small number of nominal dimensions and 2) the data are analyzed, directly anchored in the prior categorization. The data used is Israel's 1983 census macro-data gathered from the Central Bureau of Statistics for the Israeli towns with populations of at least 5000. The authors defined 6 variables as push variables and 4 as pull variables. Results of the regression employing push variables show that 4 variables accounting for 72% of inmigration were found to significantly predict inmigration: 1) unemployment, 2) percentage of Asians-Africans, 3) town size, and 4) religiosity. Within the pull classification, the regression analysis reveals that 2 of the 4 variables explain 31% of the inmigration variance: 1) educational level (26%) and 2) income (5%). The 1st regression analysis on the 2nd dimension shows that the percentage of Asian-African origin and town population size account for 32% of the immigration variance. In the 2nd regression analysis, unemployment explains 48% of the inmigration variance and educational level explains 8%. In the 3rd regression, only home crowding explains a significant amount of the immigration variance (19%). Results of a multiple regression analysis show that unemployment level, percentage of Asian-Africans, population size, and level of religiosity account for 72% of the inmigration variance. Thus, the characteristics of a town inmigrating (push variables) are demographic, economic, and social. However, the attractive features of a town are only economic. Among all economic factors, unemployment is primary. In addition, not only are both percentage of Asians-Africans and population size significantly deflective of inmigration, but each also plays a separate and independent role.     

The developmental implications of migration from and between small island nations

This article discusses the role of migration in relieving population pressures, thus making continuing development possible, using small nations in the Caribbean and the South Pacific as examples. The Caribbean islands and many Pacific islands have used out-migration to ease population pressures in this century. Surplus labor has been emerging in various Caribbean nations, independent of the international marketing problems of plantation agriculture. Rural populations alienated from plantations have had to make do on questionable and/or remote land. Population surpluses appear to originate in rural areas, but little evidence exists to suggest that those surpluses are the basis for the emigration patterns of the Caribbean islands. Emigration does not solve population problems because when ambitious, skilled workers leave their country, their actions have little to do with the existence of domestic surplus labor and their leaving may do little to facilitate domestic labor absorption. Thus, if mini-states wish to sustain their hopes of economic expansion, they must find the means to employ their surplus labor. Since mainly skilled migrants leave, their going may actually slow development and retard opportunities for labor absorption. Population movements internal to the Caribbean region may further complicate surplus labor and/or population problems. If protective entry requirements impede normal inter-island relations, they may interfere with developmental processes. In general, migration is not a feasible strategy for population control for small island nations. While temporary migration has a more positive impact than other forms of migration, problems do exist. For example, temporary migration 1) can impose significant economic costs on the source-country, and 2) may result in the source country being unable to capitalize on its initial investment in training and education of temporary migrants. In conclusion, import substitution through cooperation between small island nations, production for export where feasible, and more attention to more sophisticated international service linkages hold a better prospect for material progress than relying on the export of surplus populations.     

Compulsive gambling and the medical model

The medical model as a conceptual and operative approach to compulsive gambling is discussed. The terms medical model and disease are defined and the practical implications of their application to compulsive gambling are explored. Special attention is given to the addictive disease concept. Finally, a variety of objections to the medical model are described, but it is concluded that the many individual and social advantages of the medical model make it the preferred conceptualization at our present state of knowledge.     

Evidence for a common dissociative-like reaction among addicts

A questionnaire was designed to test selected aspects of the author's General Theory of Addictions (Jacobs, 1982). Data were collected from groups of compulsive gamblers, alcoholics, and compulsive overeaters, and compared with the responses to the same questionnaire obtained from normative samples of adolescents and adults. The more inclusive term, compulsive gambler, has been used throughout, since the sample of gamblers in this study included an inpatient subgroup who had been diagnosed as pathological gamblers, as well as a subgroup of Gamblers Anonymous members who had not been clinically evaluated. Findings support the author's theoretical position that, when indulging, different kinds of addicts will tend to share a common set of dissociativelike experiences that differentiate them from nonaddicts. This has been termed a state of altered identity.     

Interpreting demographic effects in duration analyses of first birth intervals

Estimated demographic effects in proportional hazard models of first birth intervals could reflect time-invariant differences in the risk of a birth, or differences in the timing of a shift in the risk, or both. This paper attempts to distinguish between these possibilities. The procedure is to estimate a more general model than the proportional hazard specification, in which the evolution of the risk of a birth can differ with demographic characteristics. The proportional hazard specification is nested within this more general model. Consequently, the consistency of the data with the risk or the timing interpretation of demographic effects can be tested. The data studied do not lead to a rejection of the proportional hazard specification.Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. The initial stage of this research was supported by a National Science Foundation Graduate Fellowship. I have benefited from insightful comments from David Bloom, Andrew Foster, Zvi Griliches, V. Joseph Hotz, Duncan Thomas, anonymous referees, and participants in seminars at Harvard University and the University of Pennsylvania, and in the Economic Demography sessions of the 1988 Population Association of America annual meetings. Any remaining errors are my own.     

Elective single mothers and their children: The missing fathers

Elective single mothers are adult, unmarried women who intentionally become mothers. This study utilized longitudinal data about 17 Caucasian, elective single mothers and their children to identify fathers' roles in these families, and to understand children's views of their fathers. These single mothers and their children resided for the first six years of the children's lives in father-absent households. By age six, most of the children had ghost fathers, whom they had never met or knew little about. The data suggest that the father often becomes a family secret, and that children may blame themselves for their fathers' absence.