Demography and ageing -- a truism highlighted

Since the aging of populations, with its extensive consequences, requires ample planning, demography is the soothsayer of gerontology. The realization that aging is the main demographic event of this century has generated an interdependence among demography, gerontology, and geriatrics, and created a base from which to extrapolate socio-political consequences from population changes. Demography transforms the personal unidimensional experience of aging to a dynamic one which traverses time and geography. Chronological age is not an exclusive criterion; this presents an opportunity to explore avenues grounded in the realms of economics, politics, policy, and culture. The inclusion of demography in international training courses of the International Institute on Aging (United Nations-Malta) has made possible an easier progression toward discussing policy, planning, funding, and social services within a broader context. The dependency of aging upon demography established the collaborative development between the Committee for International Cooperation in National Research in Demography (CICRED) and INIA and the joint hosting of a synthesis meeting on Population Ageing Research Project. In this collection of papers, Don Rowland creates the concept of the Gerontological Transition which interprets aging as a process of cohort flow; Raul Hernandez, through an evaluation of regional data, provides a classic analysis of changing age ratios within the population as a whole; Anthony Warnes, through use of mortality rates, provides a demographic analysis to expose the age-dependent variability in health and welfare payments; Paul Paillat transposes demographic numbers into social consequences; Miroslav Macura focuses on the youth in these population shifts; and the emerging elderly in the never ending cycle of events are viewed. Planning beyond the individual lifetime will become a necessity for mankind.     

Federalism and aging policy in the 1980s: implications for changing interest group roles in the 1990s

Shifts in the American political landscape during the 1980s had impacts on aging policy and on the behavior of aging interest groups through that decade. But perhaps even more important are the likely effects of those changes on aging policy and on the roles of age-related groups in the 1990s--and probably beyond. First, some of the major policy trends of the 1980s are sketched out, especially the renewed emphasis on federalism. Then, an assessment of their effects on aging policy and aging interest groups is provided. Next, a rationale for focusing on state-level policy and a discussion of current aging interest-group mobilization at the state level are presented. Last, the prospects for aging interest-group influence in the 1990s--a period in which the prior decade's emphasis on dual federalism is likely to continue--is addressed.     

Sucker bet or sure thing: A critical analysis of sports lotteries

A paradox currently exists regarding legal sports gambling in North America: various forms are flourishing in Nevada, Oregon, and several Canadian provinces, while at the same time the United States Congress is conducting hearings on two bills that would prohibit any new state-sponsored sports gambling initiatives. This study examines the issue of why some jurisdictions are enthusiastic about legal sports gambling while others strongly resist the concept. In reviewing these divergent viewpoints, a case study of the newfledged Canadian Sport Select gambling format is presented. This example is used to highly the perils and payoffs of a typical state-sponsored sports gambling scheme, with a view toward broadening our understanding of how they work and how they might be fairer to the public.     

Multistate life-tables and regression models

"A survey is given of the use of modern statistical techniques in event history analysis, and in particular in the study of multi-state life-tables in demography. Emphasis is placed on the interplay between partial likelihood and nonparametric maximum likelihood based methods, a) when analysing semi-Markov models or models with repeated spells, and b) in frailty models for unobservable heterogeneity."     

Data collection: are social workers reliable?

Social workers are required to collect a considerable amount of personal information about clients and their families which may be unrelated to direct clinical work. Administrators often use this for the purpose of payment, service documentation, agency planning, and accountability. The worker's concern about the appropriateness of collecting this data may result in poor compliance or even falsification of information. In a survey of Minnesota social workers, noncompliance with data collection requirements was substantial. The authors also found a significant degree of conflict about privacy and confidentiality issues. These findings suggest a basis of concern for those who must rely on accurate data for administrative planning.     

Bulgarian Turkish emigration and return

The main factors which determined the 1989 migration of Turks in Bulgaria back to Turkey are discussed. Background history is provided. After World War I, Turks in bulgaria comprised 10% of the total population. Bulgarian policy had been, up to the 1980s to send Rumelian Turks back, but the policy after 1980 was one of a national revival process to integrate Turks into the developed socialist society. Muslim traditions, customs, and Turkish language were interfered with. International disfavor resulted. In May 1989, the Communist Party declared, in an effort to show democratic ideals, open borders. Thus began the new emigration wave. 369,839 people fled to the Turkish border. 43% of the 9.47 ethnic Turks in bulgaria went to Turkey within 4 months. The numbers decreased in November, and soon after the communist regime ended. New laws were adopted allowing Turks to assume their original Turkish names. The huge migration was clearly political, and as such, the emigrant Turks should be determined as refugees and asylum seekers. The provocation of ethnic Turks was used by the communist regime to solve potential social conflicts. Not only did Turks flee to escape from violence or for religious, cultural, and moral reasons but also due to free market initiatives begun in Turkey in the early 1980s which improved Turkish quality of life. Food and consumer goods were cheaper and economic advantages were perceived. Emigrants were primarily peasants with lower levels of education, professional qualifications, and labor skills. 154,937 (42%) returned to bulgaria and 58% stayed in Turkey to comprise 25% of the former Turkish population. During this period, tensions between countries was high.l Bulgarians actively encouraged emigration and Turkey welcomed it. The emigrants to Turkey were seen as foreigners (muhacir or gocmen) but were received with good will and were readily accepted into menial positions. Emigrants were confronted with political, linguistic, and cultural differences. The unifying factor was the Islamic religion. For those returning to Bulgaria, the change in regime meant the government worked to solve the emigrants' housing problems and teaching Turkish in primary and secondary schools. The result of this massive migration has been a change in the demographics and social structure of Bulgaria, and the realization that forceful migration is inefficient in solving problems.     

The Australian model of immigration and multiculturalism: is it applicable to Europe?

"The aim of this article is to examine the experience of Australia with regard to immigration and ethnic diversity since 1945, and to discuss the relevance of this experience for Western Europe." The author finds that "since 1945, over 5 million settlers have come from many different countries, leading to a situation of great cultural diversity.... Over the last twenty years, a policy of multiculturalism has emerged, giving rise to several special institutions. This has had profound effects both on social policy and on concepts of national identity. The relevance of the Australian model for Western Europe is discussed."