Estimating the error variance in nonparametric regression by a covariate-matched u-statistic

For nonparametric regression models with fixed and random design, two classes of estimators for the error variance have been introduced: second sample moments based on residuals from a nonparametric fit, and difference-based estimators. The former are asymptotically optimal but require estimating the regression function; the latter are simple but have larger asymptotic variance. For nonparametric regression models with random covariates, we introduce a class of estimators for the error variance that are related to difference-based estimators: covariate-matched U-statistics. We give conditions on the random weights involved that lead to asymptotically optimal estimators of the error variance. Our explicit construction of the weights uses a kernel estimator for the covariate density.     

Variations in the pace of old-age mortality decline in seven European countries, 1950–1999: the role of smoking and other factors earlier in life

We examine the variations in the pace of old-age (80+) mortality decline in seven European countries, from 1950 to 1999. Marked variations were found between countries, periods and sexes. While mortality declines were strong in France and England and Wales, modest or no mortality declines were seen in the 1950s and 1960s in the Nordic countries, and since the 1980s in Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway (men only). For non-smoking-related mortality, a high and consistent pace of mortality decline was observed. Mortality decline stagnated among men born between 1890 and 1899, but persisted among women born between 1847 and 1937. The pace of old-age mortality decline correlated with the pace of mortality decline at ages 60–69 among the same cohorts, but only among men and not for non-smoking-related mortality. Smoking, thus, seems more important than other factors originating earlier in life. Our results furthermore indicate substantial future declines in old-age mortality.     

Racial differences in physician usage among the elderly poor in the United States

Despite the rapidly growing ranks of the elderly in America, the increasing racial and ethnic diversity of this population, and the large number of seniors who are poor, there are relatively few systematic investigations that examine the causes of racial differences in health care use specifically among elders living in poverty. This article addresses this issue by examining differences in patterns of having and using a physician among the elderly poor, the role that race plays and what might explain it. We demonstrate that even within this disadvantaged and medically engaged population there are persistent and significant racial differences in having and using a doctor. Specifically, we show: (1) Whites and women are more likely to have a regular doctor than men and African Americans; (2) Among those who have a doctor, whites and women also visit the doctor with greater frequency than other groups even at the same levels of health or illness; (3) After accounting for the varying levels and effects of social connectedness, racial differences in having a doctor essentially disappear; and (4) While differences in having a regular doctor can be accounted for using measures of social connectedness, substantial and robust racial and gender differences in doctor use remain. In the end, we provide an analysis that examines typical factors known to influence health care use, and find that while need, structural factors, perceptions of care, and social connectedness have a powerful effect on doctor visits, the racial variation in using a doctor cannot be explained away with the available measures.     

An inconvenient vote: Hillary Clinton's Iraq war image repair debate strategies and their implications for representative democracy

Hillary Rodham Clinton was one of four 2007–2008 Democratic presidential candidates who had voted to authorize U.S. military use in Iraq. Given her status as the front-runner, Clinton's vote, in particular, presented a public relations problem for her among primary voters who strongly opposed the war and favored its prompt end. This study analyzes Clinton's attempts in debate performances to repair her image among voters. Clinton attempted to reduce offensiveness through differentiation, attempted to evade responsibility through defeasibility, and employed qualified mortification. Clinton's strategies were rated as inconsistent and their effectiveness is questionable.     

Mass Protests in the Context of the Russian Power Regime

The mass protests in Russia in late 2011 and early 2012 can be seen as a reaction to the prevalence of a special model of power relationships—the Russian power regime. This article discusses scenarios in which the mass protests are a first step toward the transition from the equilibrium of the Russian power regime to the equilibrium of a democratic regime, with an emphasis on the reform of municipal and regional governance and of university life.     

Running on age in a 15-km road run: minor influence of age on performance

The importance of exercise in the elderly is widely recognized, but data on performances and drop-out in short running contests are lacking. This hinders stimulation and coaching of elderly persons in active aging. The aim of the study was to determine age-related changes in running performance in the most popular Dutch road run, and how this is influenced by gender, training, and increased participation rate over the last decade. This is a retrospective analysis of 194,560 participants of a 15-km run from 1995 to 2007. Multiple regression analysis of running time by age, gender, and training was performed. Trends in participation were examined by chi-square tests and ANOVA. Trends in running time and speed were examined by t tests. With aging, running time increased with 0.20% per year (P < 0.001). Running time was on average 13% (P < 0.001) shorter in men than in women and was 15.7% (P < 0.001) shorter in participants who trained on a regular basis. Decline in performance with age was 5.9% larger for men than women (P < 0.01) and 4.5% larger for trained than untrained participants (P < 0.01). Over the last decade, participation numbers increased most for elderly (≥60 years) and female participants, mean running performance declined with 9.9% (P < 0.001). Drop-out number was low at all ages (0.13–0.29%). It appears that aging has only minor negative influences on running performance, which can even be attenuated by training. Our data suggest that exercise by means of running is a safe and rewarding option for improvement of healthy and active aging.     

Changing family patterns in Europe: A case of divergence?

Over the past decades, European countries have witnessed rather uniform trends in basic demographic indicators of fertility and of family formation and dissolution. These trends have been summarized under the label of the second demographic transition, and bear an implication of between-nation convergence. Quite contrary to the ideas of the general public and the expectations of some experts, whatever the degree of convergence that is really there, the effect has not been a trend towards convergence of household and, especially, family patterns. Pluralization of household and family patterns can indeed be observed everywhere, but in each case this pluralization has another face, as it is influenced by cultural and policy differences. This will be demonstrated with the help of a presentation of preliminary results of an international comparative research project in ten European countries that was recently carried out.     

“It's Complicated”: Collective Memories of Transgender,Queer, and Questioning Youth in High School

Using the qualitative participatory action methodology, collective memory work, this study explored how transgender, queer, and questioning (TQQ) youth make meaning of their sexual orientation and gender identity through high school experiences. Researchers identified three major conceptual but overlapping themes from the data generated in the transgender, queer, and questioning youth focus group: a need for resilience, you should be able to be safe, and this is what action looks like! The researchers discuss how as a research product, a documentary can effectively “capture voices” of participants, making research accessible and attractive to parents, practitioners, policy makers, and participants.