The future from the top: Presidential perspectives on planning—Part one

This is the first part of an article which will appear in three sections in one in this copy and one each in the June and August editions. The three parts make up a long article which is a distillation of a series of conversations between the author and Chief Executives of a variety of well-known U.S. films. The findings of Dr. Rosen's survey are important in that they provide an informed view of Presidential perspectives on planning.     

Conceptual model and map of financial exploitation of older adults

This article describes the processes and outcomes of three-dimensional concept mapping to conceptualize financial exploitation of older adults. Statements were generated from a literature review and by local and national panels consisting of 16 experts in the field of financial exploitation. These statements were sorted and rated using Concept Systems software, which grouped the statements into clusters and depicted them as a map. Statements were grouped into six clusters, and ranked by the experts as follows in descending severity: (a) theft and scams, (b) financial victimization, (c) financial entitlement, (d) coercion, (e) signs of possible financial exploitation, and (f) money management difficulties. The hierarchical model can be used to identify elder financial exploitation and differentiate it from related but distinct areas of victimization. The severity hierarchy may be used to develop measures that will enable more precise screening for triage of clients into appropriate interventions.     

数学方法足以研究经济生活吗？——对数理经济学的逻辑批判

经济学是社会科学而不是自然科学,我们研究的是经济生活而不是无生气的事物。从形式上看,数学本身是由一些无意义的公式组成,只有把实体的东西加进去,数学才有意义。数理经济学重视经济变量之间的相互作用,而忽略了其因果关系。新古典理论通过构建高度简化的数理模型来研究复杂的现实世界,这犯了黑格尔式的错误。实际上,数理分析在自然科学中可以说是非常有效的,但在社会科学中必须加以限制,因为其前提假设如最优化、理性人及效率标准都是错误的。     

Industrialization,family and fertility: A structural-psychological analysis of the Brazilian case

This paper addresses itself to some linkages between macro-social structure (industrialization, social class), social psychological variables (husband-wife decision making), psychological variables (attitudes), and fertility. A total of 726 currently mated women with proven fertility in five Brazilian communities were interviewed to determine various attitudes, their work experience, their participation in family decisions, their fertility ideals, and actual fertility. The five communities were selected along a rural-urban-industrialization continuum to include a village, two non-industrial cities, and two industrial cities (one of which was Sao Paulo). Family size in the industrial cities was small in all social strata, while in the non-industrial cities family size was large in the lower strata and declined in the upper strata. Further analysis revealed that smaller family size is associated with generally higher levels of status among women—higher educational levels, greater social contacts and more skilled employment, and equality in family decision making. Our analysis supports the hypotheses that industrialization influences fertility through shifts in the social status of women, both in their work and at home. New education and work opportunities facilitate the emergence of modern conceptions of the role of women in society and egalitarian decision making in the family. These attitudes and patterns of husband-wife interaction are related to smaller family size ideals and lower fertility.     

Self-concept and contraception: Pre-conception decision-making

This paper deals with the extent to which two dimensions of self-concept, perceived competence and attitudes toward the female role, are a factor in pre-conception decision-making on contraceptive usage among women who have unwanted conceptions. The study was done throughout Michigan in 1974–75. The sample was 1746 women with unwanted conceptions, selected by means of a two-stage stratified sampling design. A standardized questionnaire included items on demographics, birth control use, and pregnancy resolution, as well as a feminism scale and a scale to measure perceived competence. Several multiple regression analyses were carried out. A hypothesis that contraceptive usage would be positively associated with perceived competence and negatively associated with traditional attitudes toward the female role was strongly supported. In an analysis of various subgroups, differing in age, race, and marital status, self-concept variables were significant predictors only among unmarried adults, regardless of race. Other important predictors of contraceptive usage among the subgroups were father's educational level, number of children raised by respondent, having a regular physician, and frequency of church attendance. For this sample, self-concept variables generally were better predictors of the pre-conception decision-making than of the post-conception decision.This research was supported by Grant #HD07739, NICHD. The authors are affiliated with Wayne State University.     

The Effect of State Transfers on Poverty in Post-Socialist Eastern Europe

During the market transition in Eastern Europe, social support mechanisms shifted from employment-based measures to means-tested ones. This restructuring, along with an overall decrease in social support and economic productivity and an increase in unemployment, meant that these payments were often inadequate to address the large rise in poverty during this period of time. Little research, however, considers whether individual-level payments were effective in reducing poverty. This paper considers the efficacy of these individual-level payments in Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania, using two-wave panel data. It shows that state transfers to individuals reduced their poverty in all these countries. Thus, while the level of payments may have been inadequate to eliminate the adverse effects of the market transition, the payments themselves were beneficial to individuals and reduced their poverty.