A framework of decision making for technological change

The first article in this series2 drew a distinction between the costs of line operations- or current outputs—and those costs devoted to investment, or future outputs. As investment encompasses technological change—in practice it is dominated by it—this article examines some of the broader issues underlying decisions to invest and describes in outline a study being made of the economic criteria that are relevant to such decisions. In the longer term the objective is to develop a procedure or framework of criteria to assist the process of decision making; and this would include a frame of reference—a set of statistical time-series and analyses designed for the purpose.     

An Exposure‐Response Threshold for Lung Diseases and Lung Cancer Caused by Crystalline Silica

Whether crystalline silica (CS) exposure increases risk of lung cancer in humans without silicosis, and, if so, whether the exposure‐response relation has a threshold, have been much debated. Epidemiological evidence is ambiguous and conflicting. Experimental data show that high levels of CS cause lung cancer in rats, although not in other species, including mice, guinea pigs, or hamsters; but the relevance of such animal data to humans has been uncertain. This article applies recent insights into the toxicology of lung diseases caused by poorly soluble particles (PSPs), and by CS in particular, to model the exposure‐response relation between CS and risk of lung pathologies such as chronic inflammation, silicosis, fibrosis, and lung cancer. An inflammatory mode of action is described, having substantial empirical support, in which exposure increases alveolar macrophages and neutrophils in the alveolar epithelium, leading to increased reactive oxygen species (ROS) and nitrogen species (RNS), pro‐inflammatory mediators such as TNF‐alpha, and eventual damage to lung tissue and epithelial hyperplasia, resulting in fibrosis and increased lung cancer risk among silicotics. This mode of action involves several positive feedback loops. Exposures that increase the gain factors around such loops can create a disease state with elevated levels of ROS, TNF‐alpha, TGF‐beta, alveolar macrophages, and neutrophils. This mechanism implies a “tipping point” threshold for the exposure‐response relation. Applying this new model to epidemiological data, we conclude that current permissible exposure levels, on the order of 0.1 mg/m³, are probably below the threshold for triggering lung diseases in humans.     

Editorial: Women and work

Abstract

When compared to day workers, night-shift workers report that they eat fewer meals, have poorer appetites, are less satisfied with their eating habits, and eat at different times of the day. When demographic variables are held constant, there do not appear to be any significant differences between experienced day and night-shift workers in caffeine or alcohol consumption. Exceptions to and variations in these findings are probably due to the background influences of social and cultural variables. Eating and drinking behaviours do effect human performance and mood, but little relevant data have been gathered from experienced night-shift workers. There are no shiftworker data evaluating the effectiveness of the special diets or dietary recommendations that have been proposed for use by night-shift workers. Thus, attempts to manipulate night-shift worker eating and drinking habits require experimental test.     

Social Work Education

The authors assess the current state of social work education and make suggestions for its improvement, which include distinguishing between specialized and professional knowledge courses, teaching interpersonal skills for working with organizations and communities, differentiating subventionary and instrumental interventions, reformulating course content on policy and administration, dealing with the problems of social work’s expanding curriculum, broadening the range of activities and methods taught in social work research courses, providing incentives for collective faculty participation in curriculum development, and acknowledging the persistent anti-intellectual undercurrent in social work.     

Pseudo maximum likelihood estimation for the dirichlet-multinomial distribution

Pseudo maximum likelihood estimation (PML) for the Dirich-let-multinomial distribution is proposed and examined in this pa-per. The procedure is compared to that based on moments (MM) for its asymptotic relative efficiency (ARE) relative to the maximum likelihood estimate (ML). It is found that PML, requiring much less computational effort than ML and possessing considerably higher ARE than MM, constitutes a good compromise between ML and MM. PML is also found to have very high ARE when an estimate for the scale parameter in the Dirichlet-multinomial distribution is all that is needed.     

Limits of quantitation for laboratory assays

Summary.  A common problem with laboratory assays is that a measurement of a substance in a test sample becomes relatively imprecise as the concentration decreases. A standard solution is to establish lower limits for reliable measurement. A quantitation limit is a level above which a measurement has sufficient precision to be reliably reported. The paper proposes a new approach to defining the limit of quantitation for the case where a linear calibration curve is used to estimate actual concentrations from measured values. The approach is based on the relative precision of the estimated concentration, using the delta method to approximate the precision. A graphical display is proposed for the assessment of estimated concentrations, as well as the overall reliability of the calibration curve. Our research is motivated by a clinical inhalation experiment. Comparisons are made between the approach proposed and two standard methods, using both real and simulated data.     

Evaluating the Efficacy of a Mental Models Approach for Improving Occupational Chemical Risk Protection

Chemical risk protection in the workplace relies partly on informing workers about possible risks using material safety data sheets (MSDS). This article reports on phase 2 of a project (phase 1 reported in Cox et al.), which employed a mental models approach to improve on data sheets as communicative interventions for perchloroethylene in dry cleaning and rosin-based solder flux in the electronics industry within small businesses in the United Kingdom (small enterprises (SEs) < 25 employees in the workplace). It focuses on the efficacy of a multimethod evaluation strategy to assess (1) the capacity of a mental models approach to yield contextually relevant data for intervention design and (2) the effectiveness of the strategy itself in validating the mental models data. The evaluation was conducted using postal questionnaires and semi-structured verbal protocols to provide responses to the alternative intervention content and to prioritize risk messages. User discussion groups were then employed, particularly as a means of establishing whether contextual information could be obtained that would differ qualitatively from the kind elicited through individual (semi) structured methods. We conclude that the mental models approach as part of an iterative process including systematic multimethod evaluation is successful in supporting the design of relevant communications to the users of chemicals. The overall viability of communicative interventions in the context of health and safety in small businesses remains in question. Future research might aim to develop a more holistic approach to interventions in complex occupational contexts.     

Stories in Decisions: How At-Risk Individuals Decide to Request Predictive Testing for Huntington Disease

Huntington Disease (HD) is a hereditary neurological disease that typically occurs in mid-life. There is no prevention or cure, but persons at risk may request predictive genetic testing to learn whether or not they will develop the disease later in life. Many studies describe why such persons request this knowledge. Few consider how people actually make this novel decision. Drawing on in-depth interviews with sixteen test candidates, this article differentiates three types of stories about—as well as embedded in—the experience of deciding. Each type of story sheds a different light on the meaning and experience of making this decision. Stories of having to know reveal that decision-making may be experienced as a self-evident act while stories of evolving toward it feature an incremental process of weighing up the implications. Stories of taking the decision feature a pivotal point which involves the narrator in seeing anew the opportunity to make a choice. Emphasizing previously neglected temporal, biographical and phenomenological dimensions of decision-making, this typology underscores the relevance of narrative in complex processes of decision-making. It also illustrates the inadequacy of understanding decision-making purely through the lens of rational choice.