Testing for space-time clusters of unknown size

The Knox test is widely used in epidemiology to test for infection or contagion, which is indicated by an excess of cases that are close both in space and time. Often, however, the values of the space and time critical parameters that define 'closeness' are unknown. An exact test is proposed for this situation, its computer implementation is described and examples of its use on published data sets are given. Other possible applications of the method adopted here are discussed. This is an example of a test where nuisance parameters are absent under H0, and where the distribution of the test statistic can be found numerically.     

History of sexual abuse and parental alcohol misuse: Risk,outcomes and protective factors in adolescents

This study examined the school performance, suicidal involvement, disordered eating behaviors, pregnancy risk and chemical use of teenagers with a history of sexual abuse or parental alcohol misuse and found that they had higher rates of these adverse outcomes than among a comparison group of teenagers without such background risk factors. Adolescents with dual-risk background reported higher levels of suicide risk, disordered eating, sexual behaviors and chemical abuse than teenagers with only one background risk factor. Among index group members, protective factors against these adverse outcomes included a high degree of religiosity and the ability to discuss problems with family or friends. Risk factors that increased the likelihood of adverse outcomes included depression, perceived substance use in school and worries about family financial security.The first author was supported in the preparation of this article by a grant from the Lois and Samuel Silberman Fund of New York.     

Testing a theoretical model of adolescent sexual behavior among rural families in poverty

This was a study of 357 adolescents, aged 13 to 17 years, who resided in a family receiving AFDC in 10 rural counties in Arkansas. The study had a twofold purpose: 1) to examine what elements of social control, social learning, and strain theories predicted 3 measures of sexual behavior; and 2) to test an integrated theoretical model with 2-stage least squares regression to see if it fit the data on the 3 measures of sex. The measures of sexual behavior were frequency of sexual intercourse in the past year, number of sexual partners in the past year, and number of sexual partners in lifetime. Bivariate analyses revealed that the consistent predictors of the 3 measures of sex were age, gender, attachment to mother, beliefs, parental supervision and punishment, family and friend support, frustration, and use of rationalizations. The theoretical model that fit all measures of sex showed that bonding influences sexual behavior through frustration, and that age, gender and rationalizations directly impact behavior.     

The effects of immigration on children in the Mexican-American community

Effects of immigration on Mexican-American immigrant children and families can be lifelong. This article describes conditions contributing to immigration and its effects on poor families, describing and illustrating developmental disruptions, and emphasizing effects on school participation and family dynamics.He is a graduate of the Illinois School of Professional Psychology, and has clinical and supervisory experience in child welfare.     

The use of resighting data to estimate the rate of population growth of the snail kite in Florida

The rate of population growth ( u ) is an important demographic parameter used to assess the viability of a population and to develop management and conservation agendas. We examined the use of resighting data to estimate u for the snail kite population in Florida from 1997-2000. The analyses consisted of (1) a robust design approach that derives an estimate of u from estimates of population size and (2) the Pradel (1996) temporal symmetry (TSM) approach that directly estimates u using an open-population capture-recapture model. Besides resighting data, both approaches required information on the number of unmarked individuals that were sighted during the sampling periods. The point estimates of u differed between the robust design and TSM approaches, but the 95% confidence intervals overlapped substantially. We believe the differences may be the result of sparse data and do not indicate the inappropriateness of either modelling technique. We focused on the results of the robust design because this approach provided estimates for all study years. Variation among these estimates was smaller than levels of variation among ad hoc estimates based on previously reported index statistics. We recommend that u of snail kites be estimated using capture-resighting methods rather than ad hoc counts.     

Continuity and change in contemporary Ulster Protestantism*

This paper explores current trends in religious practice, observance and belief in Ulster Protestantism for elements of continuity and change. Using historical and survey data it is clear that there are strong elements of both. However, Protestant religiosity is not changing to the point that it constitutes secularisation, as sociologists of religion understand it. Nor are new trends in religiosity weakening ethno‐national identities in Northern Ireland. This is because political identities are socially reproduced in ways that are independent of their religious roots and are thus unaffected by patterns of religiosity. Likely changes in Protestant religiosity in the future therefore offer no immediate panacea for altering the dynamics of Northern Irish politics.     

Making Sense of New Orleans Flood Trauma Recovery: Ethics, Research Design, and Policy Considerations for Future Disasters

This article details the justification and plans of a research team for studying and helping evacuees of Hurricane Katrina from New Orleans to recover by encouraging experimental participants to disclose information about their related experiences in guided interview sessions. Team members' consideration and practice of ethical principles as researchers dealing with the potentially traumatized victims of a disaster are portrayed. Finally, related recommendations for researchers and policy makers are offered.     

MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION FOR A POISSON RATE PARAMETER WITH MISCLASSIFIED COUNTS

This paper proposes a Poisson‐based model that uses both error‐free data and error‐prone data subject to misclassification in the form of false‐negative and false‐positive counts. It derives maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) for the Poisson rate parameter and the two misclassification parameters — the false‐negative parameter and the false‐positive parameter. It also derives expressions for the information matrix and the asymptotic variances of the MLE for the rate parameter, the MLE for the false‐positive parameter, and the MLE for the false‐negative parameter. Using these expressions the paper analyses the value of the fallible data. It studies characteristics of the new double‐sampling rate estimator via a simulation experiment and applies the new MLE estimators and confidence intervals to a real dataset.     

"Sustainability" as a Dialogue of Values: Challenges to the Sociology of Development

Even in an increasingly polarized climate of global policy-making, the ideal of "sustainable development" retains currency across a remarkably broad swath of the political spectrum in debating alternative scenarios for the future. By adapting Weber's classic categories of value spheres and collective rationality, I distinguish contemporary approaches to operationalizing the concept of sustainability and elucidate the practical implications of each. For some, the social, ecological, and economic dimensions of sustainability are synergistic components of a single meaningful goal, pursued by either an overarching technique or a unifying ethic. In contrast to these unifying models, one may conclude that the dimensions of sustainable development invoke values that inevitably conflict in any complex social interaction to derive strategies for collective action. Framing the concept in such terms, as a dialogue of values , highlights the need to adapt social institutions to mediate value conflict at different scales, and points to opportunities for engaging development debates through applied research on comparative governance.