The future of refugee flows and policies

"The number of forced migrants...is estimated today to exceed 40 million [worldwide]. The changed international climate of the 1990s...has shifted the focus from the asylum and resettlement countries to the countries of origin: there is today a greater willingness to intervene in other countries' affairs either to avert the creation of new flows of focused migrants or to assist internally displaced populations, and there is the expectation of large-scale voluntary returns of refugees in asylum. This article discusses these and other policy issues concerning forced migration in this new international environment."     

Refugees in Papua New Guinea: government response and assistance, 1984-1988

The refugee situation after the 1984 movement from Indonesia is examined in terms of policy implications and assistance as well as the welfare and education of refugees. Information was collected from government sources and documents and from households in camps and communities over a 3-month period and was published in a government report in February, 1988. This article provides a review of the border issues, resistance and exodus, reactions within Papua New Guinea, 1984-85 border crossings, social and demographic refugee profiles, government response, UN involvement, border refugee camp conditions, repatriation and relocation, reasons for the exodus, and relocation to and conditions in East Awin and the implications. This exodus from West Papua New Guinea (a region now called Irian Jaya) after Indonesia's take over in 1962 represents a unique situation, which also has lessons for other asylum seekers looking for refuge status in friendly neighboring countries. International agreements, such as the Geneva Convention and Protocol, can disrupt social networks and households when the relocation they permit is implemented. Full economic and social participation is hampered by a low quality provision of education and social services. The gain is in removing "destabilizing threats to the host state and society," at the expense of the economic and residential security of the migrants. Humanitarianism hides inequalities; internationalism, in this case, confirmed Indonesian sovereignty and large scale economic exploitation. An estimated 300,000 Melanesians have died since the take over, which amounts to 30% of the total population in 1970. Persecution was the reason for migration to Papua New Guinea; migration numbers are not accurate and range from the official 2000-3000 to 12,000 in 1984. Reactions to the migration have been mixed, and fear of the military might of Indonesia is real. The government was not prepared to cope with the scale of migration and had no plans for food relief, shelter, or medical assistance; the consequence for the refugees was death by starvation. Refugee camps were located along the border; the populations varied by camp. Some were 56% male or female, and 43% of the entire population were 15 years of age. 75% were dependent on subsistence crop production before leaving. Development assistance was dependent on refugee movement away from border areas, in this case to East Awin.     

Bulgarian Turkish emigration and return

The main factors which determined the 1989 migration of Turks in Bulgaria back to Turkey are discussed. Background history is provided. After World War I, Turks in bulgaria comprised 10% of the total population. Bulgarian policy had been, up to the 1980s to send Rumelian Turks back, but the policy after 1980 was one of a national revival process to integrate Turks into the developed socialist society. Muslim traditions, customs, and Turkish language were interfered with. International disfavor resulted. In May 1989, the Communist Party declared, in an effort to show democratic ideals, open borders. Thus began the new emigration wave. 369,839 people fled to the Turkish border. 43% of the 9.47 ethnic Turks in bulgaria went to Turkey within 4 months. The numbers decreased in November, and soon after the communist regime ended. New laws were adopted allowing Turks to assume their original Turkish names. The huge migration was clearly political, and as such, the emigrant Turks should be determined as refugees and asylum seekers. The provocation of ethnic Turks was used by the communist regime to solve potential social conflicts. Not only did Turks flee to escape from violence or for religious, cultural, and moral reasons but also due to free market initiatives begun in Turkey in the early 1980s which improved Turkish quality of life. Food and consumer goods were cheaper and economic advantages were perceived. Emigrants were primarily peasants with lower levels of education, professional qualifications, and labor skills. 154,937 (42%) returned to bulgaria and 58% stayed in Turkey to comprise 25% of the former Turkish population. During this period, tensions between countries was high.l Bulgarians actively encouraged emigration and Turkey welcomed it. The emigrants to Turkey were seen as foreigners (muhacir or gocmen) but were received with good will and were readily accepted into menial positions. Emigrants were confronted with political, linguistic, and cultural differences. The unifying factor was the Islamic religion. For those returning to Bulgaria, the change in regime meant the government worked to solve the emigrants' housing problems and teaching Turkish in primary and secondary schools. The result of this massive migration has been a change in the demographics and social structure of Bulgaria, and the realization that forceful migration is inefficient in solving problems.     

Small populations of the north: their problems and how to solve them

The authors examine the present conditions of 26 small, isolated populations living in the north of Russia. The total size of the population under consideration is 181,600, according to the 1989 Soviet census. The conclusion is that these populations are under severe threat of extinction and that there is no consensus about how to resolve their present predicament.     

The use of metaphor in therapeutic communication with young adolescents

The ability to utilize metaphor is presented as the normal stage in the development of the capacity to symbolize that is characteristic of the young adolescent. Symbolization is considered to be the basic structure through which the individual constructs a knowledge of the reality and of the self. Therefore, staying within the framework of the metaphor in treatment with the young adolescent is beginning where the client is but equally as importantly it is assisting the youngster to further develop both his symbolic capacities and himself. A case illustration is utilized to demonstrate both healthy and pathological usage of metaphorical language.     

Theory and techniques of demographic forecasting

This paper focuses on theories and techniques for forecasting fertility and mortality. Period and cohort analyses of fertility and mortality in Germany over the past century are first discussed. Alternative techniques for forecasting future trends in these variables in the Federal Republic of Germany are then outlined. The economic and social policy consequences of different mortality and fertility assumptions are also briefly noted.     

Researching in the Victorian censuses: a note on a computerized,annotated bibliography of publications based substantially on the census enumerators' books

The authors describe a project, begun in 1981, to locate, list, and annotate all the published work based substantially on the census enumerators' books for nineteenth-century censuses for England and Wales. The results are currently available in a computerized file, enabling a variety of searches by topic, geographical area, and type of population. Information is provided on using the data and the computerized bibliography. The authors note that, subsequently, data for censuses of Scotland and Ireland have been added.     

The politics of health in the fourth world: a northern Canadian example

This paper describes the major structural and historical dimensions of health ideology and praxis in the Canadian Arctic. It examines the problems that occur when primary care services exclude their clients from meaningful involvement in planning and administration. It argues that the structure of health services in northern Canada reflects an internal colonial political economy which is characteristic of most Fourth World situations.     

Empirical findings on socioeconomic determinants of fertility differentials in Costa Rica

"This paper seeks to (1) identify socioeconomic variables that are expected to generate fertility differentials; (2) hypothesize the direction and magnitude of the effect of each variable by reference to a demand-for-children model; and (3) test empirically the model using evidence from Costa Rica. The estimates are obtained from a ten-percent systematic random sample of all Costa Rican individual-family households. There are 15,924 families in the sample...." The authors specifically seek "to capture the effects of changing relative prices and available income and time constraints on parental preferences for children. Least-squares estimates show statistically significant relationships between household fertility and opportunity cost of time, parental education, occurrence of an extended family, medical care, household sanitation, economic sector of employment, and household stock of nonhuman capital."     

American Indian migration and economic opportunities

This article examines interstate migration and labor force participation among White, American Indian, and intermarried Indian/White couples in the US. The results show that endogamous American Indian couples are much less likely to change states of residence than are the other 2 groups of couples. The effect of interstate migration on labor force participation does not vary across the 3 groups of couples. The implications of these results for the assimilation and internal colonial models of race relations and for federal Indian policy are discussed