A List Sequential Sampling Method Suitable for Real-Time Sampling

Abstract.  A flexible list sequential π ps sampling method is introduced and studied. It can reproduce any given sampling design without replacement, of fixed or random sample size. The method is a splitting method and uses successive updating of inclusion probabilities. The main advantage of the method is in real-time sampling situations where it can be used as a powerful alternative to Bernoulli and Poisson sampling and can give any desired second-order inclusion probabilities and thus considerably reduce the variability of the sample size.     

Does Premarital Cohabitation Predict Subsequent Marital Stability and Marital Quality? A Meta‐Analysis

Cohabitation with a romantic partner has become common in recent decades. This meta‐analysis examined the link between premarital cohabitation and marital stability ( k = 16) and marital quality ( k = 12). Cohabitation had a significant negative association with both marital stability and marital quality. The negative predictive effect on marital stability, however, did not remain when only cohabitation with the eventual marital partner was analyzed, suggesting that these cohabitors may attach more long‐term meaning to living together. Moderator analyses demonstrated that effects of cohabitation have remained consistent over time, despite the fact that cohabitation has become more normative.     

‘Do you really want me to tell ya!’ critical learning in engaging young people in contact with the justice system as peer educators with social work students

ABSTRACT

This paper outlines and evaluates an active and experiential learning project, which gave young people involved with the justice system, a voice as peer educators engaging with social work students outside of the traditional educational institution. The project had two key interconnecting elements. Firstly, by engaging a hidden population of young people in a realistic and meaningful way, it enabled them to share their experiences, and allowed students to understand the complexity of what it means to be socially excluded. Secondly, through this active participation process the young people began to see education as a desirable goal.

The project took place over three months and included 10 social work students and 13 young people involved with the justice system. Creative use of multimedia facilitated production of a learning resource to capture the young people’s lived experiences with statutory social work and justice systems. Young people were fundamentally challenged in their beliefs about themselves being involved in education to achieve a qualification. Students were challenged in their creativity and versatility responding to the task, when collaborating with ‘hard to reach’ young people. They were furthermore challenged in terms of their attitudes and assumptions in relation to offending and social justice.     

Perspective‐taking and gift‐giving in Chinese preschool children

This study explored Chinese preschool children's perspective‐taking via a gift‐giving paradigm. Unlike findings with North American children (Atance et al. in, Dev Psychol 46:1505–1513, 2010), the results from two experiments (N_{Exp. 1} = 329; N_{Exp. 2} = 112) showed that allowing Chinese children to first choose a desired object for themselves did not enhance their subsequent perspective‐taking performance in gift selection or gift justifications. This was true regardless of gift type (consumable or recreational items) or of recipient (mom, teacher, experimenter, or friend). In addition, children's perspective‐taking did not correlate with their performances in behavioral inhibition and delay of gratification tasks. These results suggest the possibility that the prior desire fulfillment effect varies with children's socio‐cultural experiences. Finally, Chinese children showed better perspective‐taking in choosing consumable gifts (e.g., drinks, snacks) than recreational gifts (e.g., toys, magazines), although this effect was not found for gift selection in Experiment 2. One interpretation of these results is that children's capacity for prosocial perspective‐taking is influenced by socio‐cultural experiences and social knowledge about individuals' preferences for different kinds of objects.     

Bat ecology and public health surveillance for rabies in an urbanizing region of Colorado

We describe use of Fort Collins, Colorado, and nearby areas by bats in 2001–2005, and link patterns in bat ecology with concurrent public health surveillance for rabies. Our analyses are based on evaluation of summary statistics, and information-theoretic support for results of simple logistic regression. Based on captures in mist nets, the city bat fauna differed from that of the adjacent mountains, and was dominated by big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus). Species, age, and sex composition of bats submitted for rabies testing locally and along the urbanizing Front Range Corridor were similar to those of the mist-net captures and reflected the annual cycle of reproduction and activity of big brown bats. Few submissions occurred November- March, when these bats hibernated elsewhere. In summer females roosted in buildings in colonies and dominated health samples; fledging of young corresponded to a summer peak in health submissions with no increase in rabies prevalence. Roosting ecology of big brown bats in buildings was similar to that reported for natural sites, including colony size, roost-switching behavior, fidelity to roosts in a small area, and attributes important for roost selection. Attrition in roosts occurred from structural modifications of buildings to exclude colonies by citizens, but without major effects on long-term bat reproduction or survival. Bats foraged in areas set aside for nature conservation. A pattern of lower diversity in urban bat communities with dominance by big brown bats may occur widely in the USA, and is consistent with national public health records for rabies surveillance.     

Egyptian Farmers' Attitudes and Behaviors Regarding Agricultural Pesticides: Implications for Pesticide Risk Communication

The need to boost pre- and postharvest agricultural productivity serves as a powerful driving force for developing countries to promote the use of agricultural pesticides. Pesticides are, however, "poisons by design" and poisonings resulting from unsafe use of these chemicals are the most prevalent and serious occupational hazards faced by agricultural workers in developing countries. This article provides the results of a study designed to investigate the extent of unsafe use of pesticides by farmers in one of the largest agricultural areas in Egypt, the farmers' knowledge about pesticides, and their preferred sources of receiving risk information on pesticides. The results of this study show a high level of unsafe use of pesticides and inappropriate methods of disposal of empty pesticide containers. Also, knowledge about pesticides is scant. Notwithstanding that more than half of the farmers obtain regular drinking water from wells, most of the respondents were "not sure" as to whether or not pesticides may contaminate groundwater. The low level of knowledge about pesticides can be attributed to relatively low levels of education and that almost all the respondents have never participated in a pesticide education program. This article concludes with a recommendation for pesticide and pesticide use education programs, especially through "ministry officials" who most of the respondents seem to trust regarding receiving pesticide information.     

Lessons from the American federal-state unemployment insurance system for a European unemployment benefits system

This article reviews practices in the United States (US) federal-state unemployment insurance (UI) system regarding applicant eligibility, benefit generosity, benefit financing and emergency measures with the aim of revealing lessons for a possible European unemployment benefit system (EUBS) for European Union (EU) Member States. We overview the US system for UI and examine important areas of federal leadership. While the US system offers some good ideas for setting up an EUBS, there are also lessons in some shortcomings of the US experience. We overview existing national UI systems in the EU and review the debate on an EUBS in the EU. We identify areas of risk for individual and institutional moral hazard in a multi-tiered UI system and give examples of monitoring methods and incentives to ameliorate such risks. We suggest approaches for gradual system development, encouraging lower-tier behaviour, benefit financing, and responses to regional and system-wide labour market crises.     

Evaluation of the bias of the isotonic regression

The systematic error (bias) of the isotonic regression analysis of temporal spacings between failure events is investigated by means of numerical simulation. Spacings that are sampled from an exponential distribution with a constant failure rate (CFR) arc subjected to an isotonic regression search for a declining failure rate (DFR). The results indicate a considerable declining trend (bias) that is imposed upon these CFR-data by isotonic regression analysis. The corresponding results for an increasing trend can be readily obtained through transformation. For practical applications, the results of 100,000 simulations have been approximated by simple analytical expressions. For the evaluation of a trend in a specific set of isotonized spacings (or rates) the results of the latter analysis can be compared with the isotonic bias of a set of CFR data for the same number of events. Alternatively, the specific set of isotonized spacings can be suitably related to the corresponding isotonized CFR data to reduce the bias by largely eliminating the CFR contribution.     

Cautionary Note about R 2

The coefficient of determination (R ²) is perhaps the single most extensively used measure of goodness of fit for regression models. It is also widely misused. The primary source of the problem is that except for linear models with an intercept term, the several alternative R ² statistics are not generally equivalent. This article discusses various considerations and potential pitfalls in using the R ²'s. Specific points are exemplified by means of empirical data. A new resistant statistic is also introduced.