恢复启蒙的探究

自然界因果系列从比较一般的现象出发,一步一步地走向那些从它们之中产生出来的逐渐复杂和特殊的现象。这就是在自然科学中一直进化发展的、发挥统一作用和非常富有成效的对世界的理解。人类关于自然界以及人类自身的知识越来越表现出知识统一的趋势。这种同一性根源于包括智力活动在内的一切活动在本质上都是物质的这一事实,这一事实必然导致文化相对主义的破产和自然科学、社会科学以及人文科学的最终整合。     

Women's Status,Fertility Decline,and Women's Health in Developing Countries: Direct and Indirect Influences of Social Status on Health

Abstract In the present three‐wave study of 72 developing countries, we use growth curves to examine how changes in fertility and level of fertility mediate the effect of women's social status on women's health as measured by infant mortality, maternal mortality, and female life expectancy. We find that level of female education, average age at marriage, and the percentage of married women using contraceptives influence attained level of fertility, with controls for economic growth and dependency status. Change in fertility, however, is predicted only by average age at marriage and by level of education. Change in fertility, in turn, predicts improvement in all three women's health indicators, while the level of fertility predicts improvement in maternal mortality and infant mortality. In addition to the mediating effects of fertility, both age at marriage and education contribute directly to reduced level of infant mortality; level of primary education contributes directly to reduced levels of maternal mortality; and use of contraceptives contributes directly to improvement in female life expectancy. These findings provide strong evidence that women's social status makes direct contributions to women's health which cannot be attributed to economic growth, dependency status, and/or the mediating effects of level and change in fertility. The policy implication for developing countries is that greater gains can be made in women's health, particularly maternal health, by improving women's social status, especially in rural areas.     

An Estimate of Neonatal Tetanus Mortality in Iceland, 1790-1839

Neonatal tetanus mortality is estimated in 21 clusters of Icelandicparishes, beginning as early as 1790, mostly ending in 1839, using a methodwhich Boerma and Stroh (1993) developed with contemporary data. Icelandicrates averaged about 60 per thousand, ranging from less than 10 to more than250. Analysis and historical evidence suggest farming and especially fowlingcontributed to exposure to infection at birth. The need to obtain ages atdeath in selected intervals by days posed several methodological problems,but similar work on other historic European populations is invited.     

Economic Conditions,Spouse Support,and Psychological Distress of Rural Husbands and Wives1

Abstract Previous studies of the relation between economic conditions and psychological stress among farm operators are extended by comparing farming and nonfarming husbands' and wives' depressive symptoms and by including spouse support as both a mediating and a moderating variable. Using three waves of data from the Iowa Youth and Families Project, the analyses found few differences between farmers and nonfarmers, but the relation between economic pressure and distress operates differently for husbands and wives. For husbands, wives' support buffers the relation between economic pressure and husbands' sense of control over events in their lives, which in turn reduces depression. For wives, husbands' support both directly reduces their depression and buffers the effects of economic pressure on depression by weakening the relation between sense of control and feelings of depression.     

HOW THE SCOPE AND METHOD OF PUBLIC FUNDING AFFECT WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR PUBLIC GOODS

This article examines the sensitivity of survey measures ofwillingness to pay for public goods. Visitors to a science museumin San Francisco were asked to provide estimates of their willingnessto pay for saving seabirds from oil spills and for teachingEnglish to immigrants under various experimental conditions.Willingness to pay was substantially reduced by a seeminglyinnocuous reminder about how many individuals would be affectedby a tax or would be asked to contribute to a given cause. Thisfinding, which cannot be explained by standard economic interpretationsof willingness to pay, is consistent with previous studies showingthat subtle changes in question order and wording can affectthe nature of the responses.     

Correlation-adjusted estimation of sensitivity and specificity of two diagnostic tests

Summary. Models for multiple-test screening data generally require the assumption that the tests are independent conditional on disease state. This assumption may be unreasonable, especially when the biological basis of the tests is the same. We propose a model that allows for correlation between two diagnostic test results. Since models that incorporate test correlation involve more parameters than can be estimated with the available data, posterior inferences will depend more heavily on prior distributions, even with large sample sizes. If we have reasonably accurate information about one of the two screening tests (perhaps the standard currently used test) or the prevalences of the populations tested, accurate inferences about all the parameters, including the test correlation, are possible. We present a model for evaluating dependent diagnostic tests and analyse real and simulated data sets. Our analysis shows that, when the tests are correlated, a model that assumes conditional independence can perform very poorly. We recommend that, if the tests are only moderately accurate and measure the same biological responses, researchers use the dependence model for their analyses.     

Multivariate distributions with generalized inverse gaussian marginals,and associated poisson mixtures

Several types of multivariate extensions of the inverse Gaussian (IG) distribution and the reciprocal inverse Gaussian (RIG) distribution are proposed. Some of these types are obtained as random-additive-effect models by means of well-known convolution properties of the IG and RIG distributions, and they have one-dimensional IG or RIG marginals. They are used to define a flexible class of multivariate Poisson mixtures.