THE EFFECTS OF DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY RATES ON THE PROGRESSIVITY OF SOCIAL SECURITY

Does the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance portion of Social Security become regressive once we allow for the shorter lifespan of poor people? This paper compares the net returns of poor households to the net returns of other households after taking into account differential longevity. Earnings and Social Security tax and benefit histories are simulated for families of various income levels in the 1925 birth cohort. These tax and benefit profiles are then weighted by the agents' probabilities of survival. For some plausible values of key mortality parameters, differences in mortality eliminate the progressive spread in returns across income categories.     

THE VOLUNTARY PROVISION OF PUBLIC GOODS? THE TURNPIKE COMPANIES OF EARLY AMERICA

The turnpike companies of early America (roughly 1795–1840) were very unprofitable but conferred vast benefits to communities served. Purchasing stock was like paying for the road since such purchases were necessary to complete the road and unprofitability was foreseen. Thus the turnpikes would appear to have been public goods. Yet hundreds of turnpikes were provided through voluntary association. The free rider problem was overcome by an almost vigilant impulse to participate and to see that your neighbor did likewise.     

Choice of Estimators Based on Different Observations: Modified AIC and LCV Criteria

Abstract. It is quite common in epidemiology that we wish to assess the quality of estimators on a particular set of information, whereas the estimators may use a larger set of information. Two examples are studied: the first occurs when we construct a model for an event which happens if a continuous variable is above a certain threshold. We can compare estimators based on the observation of only the event or on the whole continuous variable. The other example is that of predicting the survival based only on survival information or using in addition information on a disease. We develop modified Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Likelihood cross‐validation (LCV) criteria to compare estimators in this non‐standard situation. We show that a normalized difference of AIC has a bias equal to o ( n ^{? 1} ) if the estimators are based on well‐specified models; a normalized difference of LCV always has a bias equal to o ( n ^{? 1} ). A simulation study shows that both criteria work well, although the normalized difference of LCV tends to be better and is more robust. Moreover in the case of well‐specified models the difference of risks boils down to the difference of statistical risks which can be rather precisely estimated. For ‘compatible’ models the difference of risks is often the main term but there can also be a difference of mis‐specification risks.     

Les facteurs sociaux liés au degré d'information de la population du Saguenay‐Lac‐Saint‐Jean à propos des maladies héréditaires et des services disponibles*

The past few years have seen significant advances in medical genetics. These advances have in turn given rise to several important clinical applications that have targeted populations with specific historical and demogenetic characteristics. One such population lives in the Saguenay‐Lac‐Saint‐Jean region of Quebec. One might think that this population is reasonably well informed of the situation. But their knowledge of population‐specific genetic pathologies and of the services available to them happens to vary considerably from one social group to another. This article presents the results of a quantitative study aimed at determining the factors that contribute to the acquisition of such knowledge in this population. Depuis quelques années, nous assistons à d'importantes avancées en génétique médicale. Celles‐ci induisent un développement sans précèdent de nouvelles applications cliniques qui interpellent certaines populations dont les caractéristiques historiques et démogénétiques font qu'elles sont davantage concernées. C'est le cas, notamment de la population du Saguenay‐Lac‐Saint‐Jean (Québec). On pourrait penser que cette population s'avère, dans l'ensemble, largement sensibilisée mais il appert que le niveau d'information sur les génopathies régionales et les services offerts varie considérablement d'un groupe social à l'autre. Le présent article livre les résultats d'une enquête quantitative visant à connaître les facteurs qui favorisent l'acquisition de telles connaissances dans cette population.     

EXCELLENCE AT ROHM AND HAAS KENTUCKY: A CASE STUDY OF WORK-TEAM INTRODUCTION IN MANUFACTURING

Over the past few years we have witnessed a sharp decline in the domestic and international market share of U.S. manufacturing organizations. The decline in U.S. manufacturing has provided an avalanche of criticism and attention in the literature and popular press. Recently, however, several organizations have implemented new work-force management policies to reverse the decline. We describe the case of Rohm and Haas Kentucky, Incorporated, a plant that has implemented work teams. The outcomes of these innovations include a decline in worker grievances and turnover, an improvement in the safety record of the plant, as well as an increase in productivity.     

RACE AND CHARITABLE CHURCH ACTIVITY

The availability of public funding for charitable church activity has increased dramatically in recent years. A key dispute over this increase is whether congregations’ propensity to provide charitable services depends upon the local community’s racial composition. Using three congregation‐level data sets, this article investigates how race affects charitable church activity. Each data set indicates that all‐white congregations become less charitably active as the share of black residents in the community grows. This response is found only for charitable activities and not for other activities. Additionally, all‐white congregations favorably disposed toward receiving government funding respond no differently to black residents than do not‐all‐white congregations. (JEL H41, J15, Z12)     

The Effects of Branching on Item Nonresponse

The analysis of responses to a large sample survey instrumentindicates that branching instructions significantly increasethe rate of item nonresponse for items immediately followingthe branch. While older respondents did have a higher incidenceof item nonresponse, none of six other factors (education, gender,distance to next question, number of previous branches, futurebehavior, or nature of response) hypothesized to affect itemnonresponse were significantly related to the rate of nonresponse.     

DO DEVALUATIONS IMPROVE THE TRADE BALANCE? THE EVIDENCE REVISITED

This paper reexamines the effectiveness of devaluation in trade balance adjustment. The question is addressed in a framework which improves the previous empirical literature in several respects. The evidence indicates that devaluations have been a successful tool in inducing trade balance adjustment. In particular, nominal devaluations are found to result in significant real devaluations that last for at least three years, and the real devaluation induces significant trade flows that are distributed over a two-to three-year period. The evidence comes from two different samples, 1953-73 and 1975-84, involving twenty-seven countries and sixty devaluation episodes.