Exact tests for two-way symmetriccontingency tables

A two-way contingency table in which both variables have the same categories is termed a symmetric table. In many applications, because of the social processes involved, most of the observations lie on the main diagonal and the off-diagonal counts are small. For these tables, the model of independence is implausible and interest is then focussed on the off-diagonal cells and the models of quasi-independence and quasi-symmetry. For ordinal variables, a linear-by-linear association model can be used to model the interaction structure. For sparse tables, large-sample goodness-of-fit tests are often unreliable and one should use an exact test. In this paper, we review exact tests and the computing problems involved. We propose new recursive algorithms for exact goodness-of-fit tests of quasi-independence, quasi-symmetry, linear-by-linear association and some related models. We propose that all computations be carried out using symbolic computation and rational arithmetic in order to calculate the exact p-values accurately and describe how we implemented our proposals. Two examples are presented.     

Takacs–Fiksel Method for Stationary Marked Gibbs Point Processes

Abstract. This article studies a method to estimate the parameters governing the distribution of a stationary marked Gibbs point process. This procedure, known as the Takacs–Fiksel method, is based on the estimation of the left and right hand sides of the Georgii–Nguyen–Zessin formula and leads to a family of estimators due to the possible choices of test functions. We propose several examples illustrating the interest and flexibility of this procedure. We also provide sufficient conditions based on the model and the test functions to derive asymptotic properties (consistency and asymptotic normality) of the resulting estimator. The different assumptions are discussed for exponential family models and for a large class of test functions. A short simulation study is proposed to assess the correctness of the methodology and the asymptotic results.     

Varieties of Social Cognition

Recent work within psychology demonstrates that unconscious cognition plays a central role in the judgments and actions of individuals. We distinguish between two basic types unconscious social cognition: unconsciousness of the influences on judgments and actions, and unconscious of the mental states (i.e., attitudes and feelings) that give rise to judgments and actions. Influence unconsciousness is corroborated by strong empirical evidence, but unconscious states are difficult to verify. We discuss procedures aimed at providing conclusive evidence of state unconsciousness, and apply them to recent empirical findings.     

Bayesian Inference for Contact Networks Given Epidemic Data

Abstract. In this article, we estimate the parameters of a simple random network and a stochastic epidemic on that network using data consisting of recovery times of infected hosts. The SEIR epidemic model we fit has exponentially distributed transmission times with Gamma distributed exposed and infectious periods on a network where every edge exists with the same probability, independent of other edges. We employ a Bayesian framework and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) integration to make estimates of the joint posterior distribution of the model parameters. We discuss the accuracy of the parameter estimates under various prior assumptions and show that it is possible in many scientifically interesting cases to accurately recover the parameters. We demonstrate our approach by studying a measles outbreak in Hagelloch, Germany, in 1861 consisting of 188 affected individuals. We provide an R package to carry out these analyses, which is available publicly on the Comprehensive R Archive Network.     

Maritime labour,transnational political trajectories and decolonization from below: the opposition to the 1935 British Shipping Assistance Act

This article uses a discussion of struggles over attempts by the National Union of Seamen to exclude seafarers from the maritime labour market in the inter‐war period to contribute to debates at the intersection of maritime spaces and transnational labour geographies (cf. Balachandran 2012; Høgsbjerg 2013). By focusing on struggles engendered by the British Shipping (Assistance) Act of 1935, I explore some of the transnational dynamics through which racialized forms of trade unionism were contested. I argue that the political trajectories, solidarities and organizing spaces constructed by the alliances formed to oppose the effects of the act shaped articulations of ‘decolonization from below’ (James 2015). In this way, engaging with the political trajectories and activities of activists from organizations like the Colonial Seamen's Association can reveal new ways of understanding the spatial politics of decolonization and new accounts of who or how such processes were articulated and contested. I conclude the article by arguing that engagement with these struggles can help assert the importance of forms of subaltern agency in shaping processes of decolonization.     

CAN MONETARY POLICY INFLUENCE LONG‐TERM INTEREST RATES? IT DEPENDS

Can monetary policy influence long‐term interest rates? Studies that have tackled this question using vector autoregressions (VARs) generally find that monetary policy's influence on long‐term interest rates is small and often statistically insignificant. Other studies, however, using a single‐equation approach, have found a robust relationship. Our study sheds new light on this question by estimating the effect of monetary policy shocks on long‐term interest rates in a VAR with long‐run monetary neutrality restrictions. We find that U.S. monetary policy can strongly influence long‐term interest rates, but only when the Federal Reserve has inflation‐fighting credibility and is able to firmly anchor inflationary expectations. (JEL E43, E51, E52)     

Assessing Adoptions in Difficulty

Correspondence to Dr David Howe, Lecturer in Social Work, University of East Anglia, School of Economic and Social Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ. Summary Although most adoptions are judged a success, a small numberof families and their adopted children run into behaviouraland relationship difficulties. The Post-adoption Centre, London,is a specialist agency which works with a number of client groups,including adopters and their families. The assessments madeby the Centre's counsellors of adoptive families were analysed.Two dimensions defined the counsellors' assessments. One recognizeda strong developmental perspective and owed much to the recentwork of David Brodzinsky. The other emphasized the complex emotionalinteractions that can take place between parents and child.Because of its originality and ability to refine the qualityof assessments, the analysis concentrates on the second dimension.When the developmental and interactional perspectives are combined,five assessment themes emerge. These are described and illustratedwith case examples.     

Social Work Influence on Juvenile Court Disposals

Summary A study was made of the contents of 120 social enquiry reportswritten by social workers in relation to a sample of 50 juvenileoffenders. The criterion for inclusion in the sample was thatthe offender was subject to a supervision order made during1977, in one social services department. The analysis of the contents of the reports indicated that thesocial workers, with their own individual differences of emphasis,adhered closely to the intended welfare values of the 1969 Act;they worked for, with and on behalf of the offenders and theirfamilies; their recommendations, particularly when argued withconviction, were listened to and acted upon by the magistrates. It appeared that there might be significant decision pointsin the career of a juvenile offender: the first court appearance,when either a welfare measure or deterrent measure might beused; and the later stage where a boy of 14+ years faced thecourt following a number of convictions and the failure of previousmeasures. At both points it seemed to be the social worker recommendationwhich was influential, and which could therefore have a significanteffect on the direction of a child's future.