Estimating fecundability from data on waiting times to first conception

"This article tests assumptions invoked in the demographic literature to estimate the population distribution of fecundability from data on waiting times to first conception. In continuous time, the key assumption is that waiting times are realizations from a mixture of exponentials distribution. In discrete time, the key assumption is that waiting times are realizations from a mixture of geometrics distribution. The [U.S.] Hutterite data analyzed by Sheps (1965) are consistent with this assumption. Various models, however, have one representation in mixture of exponentials form. A fundamental identification problem plagues the conventional estimation procedure. Our analysis calls into question the conventional practice of checking model specification by using goodness-of-fit tests. The practical importance of the identification problem in duration models is demonstrated."     

Medicine and the question of suffering

Doctors are not health care providers, and medicine is not a commodity. To practice medicine well, the doctor must attend to each patient as a whole person and be faithful in giving care when cure is not possible.     

New information from the State Committee on Statistics of the USSR

Selected data concerning the USSR are presented. They concern vital statistics by republic for 1989 for rural and urban areas, birth order, life expectancy by sex, and population change and vital statistics for cities with a population over one million.     

Effects of fixed costs in two-person sequential bargaining

Rubinstein (1982) considered the problem of dividing a given surplus between two players sequentially, and then proposed a model in which the two players alternately make and respond to each other's offers through time. He further characterized the perfect equilibrium outcomes, which depend on the players time preferences and order of moves. Using both equal and unequal bargaining cost conditions and an unlimited number of rounds, two experiments were designed to compare the perfect equilibrium model to alternative models based on norms of fairness. We report analyses of final agreements, first offers, and number of bargaining rounds, which provide limited support to the perfect equilibrium model, and then conclude by recommending a shift in focus from model testing to specification of the conditions favoring one model over another.     

THE EFFECTS OF PRESTIGE NAMES IN QUESTION WORDING

Although survey researchers are often warned against using prestigenames in questions (e.g., identifying Contra aid as "PresidentReagan's policy"), prestige names are still commonly used. Tolearn more about the effects of using prestige names, we analyzetwo sets of experiments—on judicial confirmation electionsand on an initiative on tax indexing. The results indicate thatprestige names do more than shift responses in one direction—they eliminate the effect of education on DKs and provide moreof a political basis for the responses.     

Assimilation vs. multiculturalism: Views from a community in France

A recent American survey of attitudes toward societal multiculturalism vs. assimilation has found surprisingly widespread support for maintaining heritage cultures not only among immigrant minority groups but also among most subsamples of majority host groups, black and white. Working-class whites are the one exception. This pilot study explores the same attitude domain in a contrasting European setting. Randomly selected samples of middle- and working-class families (a mother, father, and teenage son or daughter) from a small city in France were interviewed. As a group, they were neutral to slightly favorable to immigrants maintaining heritage cultures and languages rather than losing them through assimilation. On measures of attitudes toward specific immigrant groups, there were marked intergroup dyfferunces with Maghrebian Arabs rated leist favorably and Southeast Asians, the model immigrants, most favorably. Comparisons of subgroups of respondents who varied in terms of (a) political left-right orientation, (b) social class standing, (c) degree of religiosity, and (d) generational level provide the base for a more general discussion of cultural assimilation and multiculturalism.