Inference and rare event simulation for stopped Markov processes via reverse-time sequential Monte Carlo

We present a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for Markov chain trajectories with proposals constructed in reverse time, which is advantageous when paths are conditioned to end in a rare set. The reverse time proposal distribution is constructed by approximating the ratio of Green’s functions in Nagasawa’s formula. Conditioning arguments can be used to interpret these ratios as low-dimensional conditional sampling distributions of some coordinates of the process given the others. Hence, the difficulty in designing SMC proposals in high dimension is greatly reduced. Empirically, our method outperforms an adaptive multilevel splitting algorithm in three examples: estimating an overflow probability in a queueing model, the probability that a diffusion follows a narrowing corridor, and the initial location of an infection in an epidemic model on a network.     

A fiducial approach to multiple comparisons

Comparing treatment means from populations that follow independent normal distributions is a common statistical problem. Many frequentist solutions exist to test for significant differences amongst the treatment means. A different approach would be to determine how likely it is that particular means are grouped as equal. We developed a fiducial framework for this situation. Our method provides fiducial probabilities that any number of means are equal based on the data and the assumed normal distributions. This methodology was developed when there is constant and non-constant variance across populations. Simulations suggest that our method selects the correct grouping of means at a relatively high rate for small sample sizes and asymptotic calculations demonstrate good properties. Additionally, we have demonstrated the flexibility in the methods ability to calculate the fiducial probability for any number of equal means. This was done by analyzing a simulated data set and a data set measuring the nitrogen levels of red clover plants that were inoculated with different treatments.     

Differential parenting and children's social understanding

In the current study, a curvilinear association was examined between differential parenting and children's social understanding as measured using standardized assessments and behavioral observations. Social understanding was comprised of theory‐of‐mind and behavior indicating understanding of others’ minds (i.e., cognitive sensitivity and internal state talk and reasoning during sibling interactions). Data came from a community sample of 372 children (51.6% males; M age = 5.57, SD = 0.77), their younger siblings (M age = 3.14, SD = 0.27), and their mothers who were observed in their homes. We hypothesized that in families with higher levels of differential parenting, both favored and disfavored older siblings would display poorer social understanding, but that disfavored children would be more negatively impacted. Results from a hierarchical regression analysis indicated an inverse linear effect, rather than a curvilinear relationship, between being favored by mother and siblings’ social understanding. Specifically, disfavored older children showed higher levels of social understanding when interacting with their favored younger sibling. This relationship remained significant after controlling for variables such as age, SES, and language. Findings suggest that differential parenting plays a role in children's ability to understand others.     

Patterns of consent: evidence from a general household survey

Summary.  We analyse patterns of consent and consent bias in the context of a large general household survey, the 'Improving survey measurement of income and employment' survey, also addressing issues that arise when there are multiple consent questions. A multivariate probit regression model for four binary outcomes with two incidental truncations is used. We show that there are biases in consent to data linkage with benefit and tax credit administrative records that are held by the Department for Work and Pensions, and with wage and employment data held by employers. There are also biases in respondents' willingness and ability to supply their national insurance number. The biases differ according to the question that is considered. We also show that modelling questions on consent independently rather than jointly may lead to misleading inferences about consent bias. A positive correlation between unobservable individual factors affecting consent to Department for Work and Pensions record linkage and consent to employer record linkage is suggestive of a latent individual consent propensity.     

The U. S. Supreme Court and Value Legitimacy: An Experimental Approach With Older Americans

This study was designed to test the designed to test the legitimacy-conferring hypotheses as it relates to the United States Supreme Court. Conventional wisdom has long asscrted that the Court, in its role as interpreter of the Constitution, is a major force influencing the values and attitudes of Americans. However, little empirical research has been conducted on the issue, and that which has been conducted has been ambiguous. Using a split-ballot experimental technique, we found support for the legitimacy-conferring hypothesis among a sample of older Americans from twenty-two different states across the U. S. We found five of nine proposals to be more strongly endorsed when their attributed source was the Supreme Court rather than the U. S. Congress or when the source was unattributed. A factor analysis of the items was used to discover underlying value-orientations described by the nine items. An analysis to three derived factors added to our confidence in the legitimacy-conferring hypothesis.     

A Systems-Developmental Approach to Counselling Couples with Sexual Problems: Part II — Strategies for Intervention

We present a two-part model for the understanding and treatment of long-standing sexual problems, especially those involving desire discrepancy between partners. In Part I, we described a theoretical model for understanding the development of sexual problems in terms of the normal developmental patterns of relationships in current Western culture and the balances and imbalances that develop as a consequence of differences in styles of loving. In this Part II, we examine and describe the implications of the theoretical model for therapeutic intervention.     

Immigrants and their occupational absorption: the Israeli case

This paper examines immigrants' occupational absorption by using 1) immigrants' satisfaction with their work in Israel, 2) similarity between jobs held abroad and in Israel, and 3) degree of occupational status persistence. In 1982, 41.9% of the Israeli population was foreign-born, and 84.2% were either immigrants or immigrants' children. 1972-1982 showed 1) a decrease in full-time employed persons and an increase in women's labor force participation; 2) higher educational levels; 3) an increase in scientific, academic, professional, technical, administrative, managerial, and clerical workers; and 4) lower unemployment. These trends, with Israel's high rate of inflation, make the adsorption of immigrants difficult. 80% of immigrants find work within 1 year; and, within 3 years, 78.7% report satisfaction with their work. 1) Status persistence, 2) ascent, 3) selectivity, 4) descent, and 5) random models describe immigrants change in socio-occupational status, before and after immigration. Data from the Statistical Abstract of Israel 1983 show downward mobility for immigrants in their first year. More than 1/3 of scientific and academic professionals in 1975-78, 45.2% in 1978/79, and 56.2% in 1979/80 were not employed in their previous occupations. After 3-5 years, however, most immigrants find employment in their fields. Women have lower status persistence, and hence, higher job mobility, than men; immigrants from European USSR and Western countries have higher status maintenance.     

Divorce and immigration: the social integration of immigrant divorcees in Israel

This paper attempts to supply information on what motivated some 7000 Jewish divorcees to leave their countries of origin in the last decade and settle in Israel. The study also examines the differences in social integration of immigrant divorcees who came to Israel from different political systems--authoritarian or democratic regimes. Finally, the study examines the extent to which immigrant divorcees, who generally arrive in Israel with children, are to be considered as a "high risk" social group requiring special attention and particular aid. Of the 287,487 immigrants aged 15 years and over who arrived in Israel between 1970-1980, 53.7% were women (sex ratio: 860 males per 1000 females), and 3.6% were divorced. The findings indicate that there are significant differences between divorcees from Anglophone and Eastern European countries in their motivation for immigrating to Israel. The former decide to immigrate primarily for individual reasons--generally after divorce--expecting that immigration will increase chances of remarriage. In contrast, those who came from Eastern Europe are motivated by political, economic, and ideological reasons; the issue of immigration often sparks the divorce crisis. Divorcees from Anglophone countries are less socially isolated, more likely to meet veteran Israelis, and more satisfied with their life in Israel. Eastern European divorcees usually restrict their social contact to encounters with other immigrants from their country of origin, are less satisfied with their life in Israel, and feel themselves more isolated and frustrated. Despite the difficulties encountered by this group, it was found that there are no marked differences between divorcees and married immigrant women in social integration. In Israel, immigrant divorcees cannot be considered as a "high risk" social group.