Improving Weight of Evidence Approaches to Chemical Evaluations

Federal and other regulatory agencies often use or claim to use a weight of evidence (WoE) approach in chemical evaluation. Their approaches to the use of WoE, however, differ significantly, rely heavily on subjective professional judgment, and merit improvement. We review uses of WoE approaches in key articles in the peer‐reviewed scientific literature, and find significant variations. We find that a hypothesis‐based WoE approach, developed by Lorenz Rhomberg et al., can provide a stronger scientific basis for chemical assessment while improving transparency and preserving the appropriate scope of professional judgment. Their approach, while still evolving, relies on the explicit specification of the hypothesized basis for using the information at hand to infer the ability of an agent to cause human health impacts or, more broadly, affect other endpoints of concern. We describe and endorse such a hypothesis‐based WoE approach to chemical evaluation.     

企业技术能力对技术联盟状态影响的实证研究

论文对参与技术联盟企业的技术能力与技术联盟三个重要状态变量(合作实力、相互依赖性、冲突)的关系提出了一系列假设.针对提出的假设,运用相关分析和回归分析等方法,对国内226家企业数据进行了实证研究,并运用联立方程对模型进行了检验.在分析讨论的基础上,得出了有实践指导意义的结论,并提出了有针对性的建议.     

基于copula函数的贷款组合期限结构优化模型

本文运用copula 函数方法拟合短期贷款与中长期贷款的收益率的联合分布函数,运用风险价值确定风险最小的贷款组合,建立基于copula函数的贷款组舍期限结构优化模型.通过确定合理的各期限贷款的结构.解决银行的流动性风险及资产匹配效率问题.本研究的特点一是建立基于copula函数的贷款组合期限结构优化模型.通过确定短期贷款及中长期贷款的合理比例来控制资产的组合风险,降低商业银行的流动性危机,提高商业银行的资金运营效率.二是运用copula函数拟合短期贷款与中长期贷款的联合分布函数.解决了现有研究假设贷款组舍的联合分布是多元正态分布、进而低估了贷款组合风险的问题.三是通过度量贷款组合联合分布的风险价值.来确定贷款组合的最优期限结构.     

评杨东莼的《本国文化史大纲》

杨东莼的《本国文化史大纲》是我国一部较早的唯物的文化史著作。本文着重分析了杨著唯物的文化及文化史观 ,并对其运用马克思主义“五社会形态论”进行文化史分期加以探讨 ,同时指出杨著在文化史研究上的意义及其理论构架上的缺陷     

国有企业社会成本的演变——关于武汉J厂的个案调查

在国有企业的社会成本问题日益威胁到企业的生存时，无论从国家还是企业的角度，都开始在社会成本方面寻求某些突破。本文拟以武汉J厂为个案，从单位体制、企业制度的角度分析国有企业社会成本的演变。对于社会成本的分离必须区别对待，而且是一个长期的过程。     

陀思妥耶夫斯基:社会危机的预言家--陀思妥耶夫斯基的创作主题与现代派文学

19世纪中后期的俄国作家陀思妥耶夫斯基创作中所表现的人与外部环境、人与自我、人与人的关系,反映出他对当时人类生存状态和命运的忧虑.这一主题和20世纪西方社会危机的衍生物--现代派文学有着千丝万缕的联系,但是两者也有本质的区别.     

Combining Occurrence and Toxicity Information to Identify Priorities for Drinking-Water Mixture Research

Characterizing all possible chemical mixtures in drinking water is a potentially overwhelming project, and the task of assessing each mixture's net toxicity even more daunting. We propose that analyzing occurrence information on mixtures in drinking water may help to narrow the priorities and inform the approaches taken by researchers in mixture toxicology. To illustrate the utility of environmental data for refining the mixtures problem, we use a recent compilation of national ground-water-quality data to examine proposed U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR) models of noncancer mixture toxicity. We use data on the occurrence of binary and ternary mixtures of arsenic, cadmium, and manganese to parameterize an additive model and compute hazard index scores for each drinking-water source in the data set. We also use partially parameterized interaction models to perform a bounding analysis estimating the interaction potential of several binary and ternary mixtures for which the toxicological literature is limited. From these results, we estimate a relative value of additional toxicological information for each mixture. For example, we find that according to the U.S. EPA's interaction model, the levels of arsenic and cadmium found in U.S. drinking water are unlikely to have synergistic cardiovascular effects, but the same mixture's potential for synergistic neurological effects merits further study. Similar analysis could in future be used to prioritize toxicological studies based on their potential to reduce scientific and regulatory uncertainty. Environmental data may also provide a means to explore the implications of alternative risk models for the toxicity and interaction of complex mixtures.     

地质条件下的农业土地利用分区研究——以清镇市为例

基于地质条件的清镇市农业土地利用分区是依据农业资源优势,以充分发挥土地适宜用途为基础划分的,它着重体现土地利用结构、利用布局与发展方向,更好地发挥土地资源的生产潜力。文章主要根据清镇市地质条件等的分异规律,选取了11个评价指标,并运用聚类分析方法将清镇市划分为5个农业土地利用区。从而根据各区土地利用结构和社会经济状况,初步提出土地利用发展方向和实施对策,希望能为其他同类地区的农业土地利用提供参考意见。     

死刑的成本与废除死刑的发展趋势

死刑的成本表现在死刑的程序成本、执行成本、随付成本三个方面。世界上大多数国家巳废酴或中止了死刑，我国应该逐步限制、废除死刑。