Estimating Health Risks from Natural Hazards Using Risk Assessment and Epidemiology

Risk assessment is the process of estimating the likelihood that an adverse effect may result from exposure to a specific health hazard. The process traditionally involves hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization to answer “How many excess cases of disease A will occur in a population of size B due to exposure to agent C at dose level D?” For natural hazards, however, we modify the risk assessment paradigm to answer “How many excess cases of outcome Y will occur in a population of size B due to natural hazard event E of severity D?” Using a modified version involving hazard identification, risk factor characterization, exposure characterization, and risk characterization, we demonstrate that epidemiologic modeling and measures of risk can quantify the risks from natural hazard events. We further extend the paradigm to address mitigation, the equivalent of risk management, to answer “What is the risk for outcome Y in the presence of prevention intervention X relative to the risk for Y in the absence of X?” We use the preventable fraction to estimate the efficacy of mitigation, or reduction in adverse health outcomes as a result of a prevention strategy under ideal circumstances, and further estimate the effectiveness of mitigation, or reduction in adverse health outcomes under typical community-based settings. By relating socioeconomic costs of mitigation to measures of risk, we illustrate that prevention effectiveness is useful for developing cost-effective risk management options.     

RESIDENTIAL MOBILITY AND ATTEMPTED SUICIDE AMONG ADOLESCENTS: An Individual-Level Analysis

Building on the Durkheimian legacy's emphasis on social integration as a determinant of suicidal behavior, many macrolevel studies have observed an association between aggregate rates of geographical mobility and suicide, but little research has explored this connection at the individual level. We use data from 9,594 respondents who participated in two waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health to examine the effect of recent residential mobility on attempted suicide one year later and to explore the mechanisms that potentially transmit this effect. We find that among adolescent girls, recent movers are about 60 percent more likely than nonmovers to report having attempted suicide during the following year and that this difference cannot be readily explained by mover versus nonmover differences in preexisting demographic and family background characteristics. Some of the apparent effect of residential mobility on females' risk of attempting suicide operates through higher rates of victimization and delinquency, lower levels of school attachment, higher rates of social isolation, and a tendency for movers to associate with peers who exhibit delinquent behaviors and who themselves have attempted suicide. In contrast, we find no evidence that mobile female adolescents' deficit of parental social capital or lower levels of school engagement can account for the difference in attempted suicide risk between movers and nonmovers. We also find that residential mobility is not significantly associated with suicide attempts among adolescent males.     

Parenting Practices and Adolescents’ Friendship Networks

Using data on 11,044 adolescents from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, we examine the relationship between parenting practices and the composition of an adolescent’s friendship network. In general, parent‐child relationship quality, selecting a neighborhood because of its schools, and parents’ supervision are negatively associated with having a more delinquent friendship network but positively associated with having a more prosocial network. These results suggest that parents have the capacity to shape the characteristics of their child’s friendship networks, even after taking into account the likelihood that adolescents have friends who are similar to themselves.     

Self‐Perceived Competence in Mainland China: A Multiwave Longitudinal Examination of Internalizing Symptoms in Chinese Adolescents

The present 9‐wave, 2‐year study examined whether Cole's (1991) theory of self‐perceived competence could help explain vulnerability to depressive and anxiety symptoms in a sample of adolescents from mainland China. Participants included 624 adolescents (319 females and 305 males) from an urban school in Changsha (n = 308) and from a rural school in Liuyang (n = 316). Findings showed that self‐perceived academic competence was negatively associated with prospective depressive and anxiety symptoms. Meanwhile, adolescents with low levels of self‐perceived social competence were at heightened risk for depressive symptoms during times of increased stressors (supporting a vulnerability‐stress model). These findings advance past research by highlighting new developmental pathways for depressive and anxiety symptoms in Chinese adolescents.     

Reaching for Integrity: An Eriksonian Life-Cycle Perspective on the Experience of Adolescents Being Raised by Grandparents

Increasing numbers of children are being raised by their grandparents because their own parents are unable or unwilling to care for them. A case is presented illustrating how an Eriksonian life-cycle perspective clarifies the developmental demands on adolescents in these situations and provides a theoretical framework for organizing therapeutic work with them.     

Resource Dependency and Rural Poverty: Rural Areas in the United States and Japan*

Abstract Although rural residents often expect resource extraction to lead to local prosperity, much of the recent research finds that resource extraction is associated with poverty. This paper tests these results by examining whether the findings may be due to methodological factors such as the tendency to focus on extreme cases, particular extracting sectors, and certain periods of time. By comparing two localities that have followed very different developmental trajectories—the state of Wisconsin and Hokkaido Prefecture in Japan—during the period from 1970 to 1990, this paper addresses these issues. The results do not clearly support either the expectation that resource extraction will lead to poverty or that it will lead to economic prosperity. Instead, like a handful of studies on resource dependency, the results indicate that the relationship between extraction and poverty is unique to location. Despite the many differences between the United States and Japan, the strongest correlates of poverty in each country involve the proportion of land in an area that is forested. Particularly because these results mirror the findings from the one previous study that included this variable, future research must give greater attention to this explicitly environmental variable, as well as examining some of the possible reasons for the relationship.     

Young Infants' Performance in the Object‐Variation Version of the Above‐Below Categorization Task: A Result of Perceptual Distraction or Conceptual Limitation?

Five experiments were conducted to examine the performance of young infants on above versus below categorization tasks. Experiments 1 and 2 showed that infants did not form abstract categorical representations for above and below when familiarized with different objects depicted in a constant spatial relation relative to a horizontal bar and tested on a novel object depicted in the familiar and novel spatial relation. Experiments 3 through 5 examined perceptual‐attentional distraction versus conceptually based generalization explanations for young infant performance in the object‐variation version of the above‐below categorization task. Experiments 3 and 4 demonstrated that infants still did not form abstract categorical representations for above and below when object variation was removed from the familiarization trials or when object novelty was reduced during the preference test trials. However, Experiment 5 showed that 3‐ and 4‐month‐olds succeeded on the above versus below categorization task when familiarized with object variation and preference tested with a familiar versus novel object‐bar relation. These results indicate that young infants can form categorical representations for above and below in the object‐variation version of the above‐below categorization task, but that such representations are specific to the particular objects presented. Young infant performance in the object‐variation version of the above‐below categorization task thus reflects a conceptually based generalization limit rather than a problem of perceptual‐attentional distraction.     

Methods of Engagement in Family-Based Preventive Intervention

Family-based prevention programs have shown promise in preventing drug use and antisocial behavior in high-risk youth. Multidimensional family prevention (MDFP) is an intensive, family-based counseling program in which a family-specific prevention agenda is crafted with each family. This collaborative, individualized approach to intervention requires a high degree of engagement on the part of families. The main challenges of engagement are discussed, and the main features of an engagement strategy are described: capturing the interest of the family and assessing risk and protective factors within the specific ecological context of the family in order to create a working agenda for preventive intervention.     

Assortative mating among unmarried parents: Implications for ability to pay child support

Assortative mating is of interest to both theoretical and applied social scientists. Previous research is based almost entirely on married couples and parents. In this paper we use data from the NSFG to examine assortative mating among unmarried parents in the US and to examine the robustness of estimates of nonresident fathers' income based on assortative mating assumptions. We find that never married parents are similar, though not identical, to married parents in their choice of partners. White unmarried women are much more likely to have a child with a non-white male than white married women. On the other hand, unmarried women are more likely than married women to have a child with a more educated male. Received: 31 May 2000/Accepted: 2 January 2001