Muslims in Great Britain: the impact of mosque attendance on political behaviour and civic engagement

Is mosque attendance associated with withdrawal from civic and political life and the endorsement of politically motivated violence (PMV)? We draw from a large multi-ethnic survey in the U.K. to answer this research question. Our analysis is unique in that we compare Muslims to Christians to show that mosques, just like churches, can enhance the civic and political participation of their adherents. Drawing from scholarship on religious institutions, social capital, and social identity, we claim and empirically show that mosque attendance is associated with increased electoral and non-electoral political participation, higher levels of civic engagement, and the rejection of PMV. Our findings not only advance the current scholarly understanding of the attitudes and behaviours of Muslims in the West, but also have important policy implications in that they help dispel stereotypical and sensationalist accounts of Mosques and their adherents in the post-Brexit U.K.     

Statistical Modeling of Fire Occurrence Using Data from the Tōhoku,Japan Earthquake and Tsunami

In this article, we develop statistical models to predict the number and geographic distribution of fires caused by earthquake ground motion and tsunami inundation in Japan. Using new, uniquely large, and consistent data sets from the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, we fitted three types of models—generalized linear models (GLMs), generalized additive models (GAMs), and boosted regression trees (BRTs). This is the first time the latter two have been used in this application. A simple conceptual framework guided identification of candidate covariates. Models were then compared based on their out‐of‐sample predictive power, goodness of fit to the data, ease of implementation, and relative importance of the framework concepts. For the ground motion data set, we recommend a Poisson GAM; for the tsunami data set, a negative binomial (NB) GLM or NB GAM. The best models generate out‐of‐sample predictions of the total number of ignitions in the region within one or two. Prefecture‐level prediction errors average approximately three. All models demonstrate predictive power far superior to four from the literature that were also tested. A nonlinear relationship is apparent between ignitions and ground motion, so for GLMs, which assume a linear response‐covariate relationship, instrumental intensity was the preferred ground motion covariate because it captures part of that nonlinearity. Measures of commercial exposure were preferred over measures of residential exposure for both ground motion and tsunami ignition models. This may vary in other regions, but nevertheless highlights the value of testing alternative measures for each concept. Models with the best predictive power included two or three covariates.     

Virtuelle Teams — Geringe Kosten,geringer Nutzen? Zur Leistungsverbesserung von Kleingruppen beim Problemlösen durch elektronische Moderation

Problem solving and strategic decision-making is frequently delegated to groups of experts because there is a hope that their performance will bring more advantages compared to single working individuals as a result of their cooperation. It is however a fact that process loss is a characteristic of naturally interacting groups. Facilitation-techniques like PROMOD (PROzedurale MODeration or procedural facilitation) have been developed to reduce these difficulties (Lecher, &; Witte, 2003). The goal of this study was to investigate whether PROMOD can also improve performance of teams and individuals in a virtual setting (N = 180). Subjects had to solve an interpolation-problem (see Dörner, 1976) under facilitated and non-facilitated conditions while using a chat-program and electronic forms. Improvements were found to be significant in one of two performance-measures (p =.0245).     

Bayesian analysis of screening data: Application to AIDS in blood donors

The rapid increase in the number of AIDS cases during the 1980s and the spread of the disease from the high-risk groups into the general population has created widespread concern. In particular, assessing the accuracy of the screening tests used to detect antibodies to the HIV (AIDS) virus in donated blood and determining the prevalance of the disease in the population are fundamental statistical problems. Because the prevalence of AIDS varies widely by geographic region and data on the number of infected blood donors are published regularly, Bayesian methods, which utilize prior results and update them as new data become available, are quite useful. In this paper we develop a Bayesian procedure for estimating the prevalence of a rare disease, the sensitivity and specificity of the screening tests, and the predictive value of a positive or negative screening test. We apply the procedure to data on blood donors in the United States and in Canada. Our results augment those described in Gastwirth (1987) using classical methods. Indeed, we show that the inclusion of sound prior knowledge into the statistical analysis does not yield sufficiently precise estimates of the predictive value of a positive test. Hence confirmatory testing is needed to obtain reliable estimates. The emphasis of the Bayesian predictive paradigm on prediction intervals for future data yields a valuable insight. We demonstrate that using them might have detected a decline in the specificity of the most frequently used screening test earlier than it apparently was.     

The Impact of the Within My Reach Relationship Training on Relationship Skills and Outcomes for Low‐Income Individuals

A federal grant was awarded to provide the Within My Reach healthy relationships curriculum to low‐income, at‐risk individuals involved with various social service agencies. The effectiveness of this curriculum was evaluated for 202 participants through measures of training and relationship outcomes pre‐, immediately post‐ and 6 months posttraining. Participants experienced high levels of training satisfaction; significant increases in knowledge, communication/conflict resolution skills, and relationship quality; as well as a trend in the reduction of relationship violence. An important implication of this research is that MFTs may broaden their service delivery to at‐risk individuals by collaborating with community agencies to adapt established relationship enhancement programs, evidence‐based tools, and principles that complement traditional couples therapy.     

A note on the distribution of the resistance of rank tests

Measurement of the effect of extreme observations on test statistics has been discussed by many authors. Test resistance to rejection (acceptance) is one of the most appealing methods. Using the distribution of the test statistic, the exact and asymptotic distributions of the test resistance to rejection (acceptance) are introduced. The usage of the distribution is emphasized in the case of the sign test and Spearman’s rho.     

Racial and Ethnic Diversity in Senior Centers: Comparing Participant Characteristics in More and Less Multicultural Settings

The 2008 Health Indicators Project surveyed a probability sample (N = 1,870) of New York City senior center participants. Attendees of racially and ethnically diverse and nondiverse senior centers were compared across 5 domains: demographics; health and quality of life; social support networks; neighborhood perceptions and engagement; health service access/utilization. Although homogeneous and diverse center participants demonstrate similar health and quality-of-life outcomes, those from diverse centers demonstrate greater risk of social isolation, receive less family support, and more likely seek medical care from hospitals or community clinics. Implications and future directions for research, practice and policy are discussed.     

Washington State's adoption of a child welfare practice model: An illustration of the Getting To Outcomes implementation framework

Despite a great need for evidence-informed practices in child welfare, very few child welfare systems have implemented evidence-based case management models state-wide. While the literature on implementation from the perspective of model developers and researchers is steadily increasing, there has been little attention to the process of implementation originating from the reverse direction, by community organizations themselves, or with regard to going-to-scale implementation in child welfare. The Getting to Outcomes (GTO) model, which was originally created to help organizations choose and implement prevention programs, is a promising guide for child welfare systems seeking to initiate system-wide implementation of evidence-based practices. The GTO framework provides a step-by-step guide for surveying a system, building motivation, training, and evaluation. This article will illustrate the state-wide implementation of Solution-Based Casework (SBC), an evidence-based model of case management, by Washington State's Children's Administration, following the GTO framework. Despite some barriers and obstacles, the GTO model proved to be feasible and to aide in the implementation of SBC. Implications for the GTO model as a framework for empowering community organizations to choose and implement relevant evidence-based practices will be discussed.