Stochastic Counterfactual Risk Analysis for the Vulnerability Assessment of Cyber‐Physical Attacks on Electricity Distribution Infrastructure Networks

In December 2015, a cyber‐physical attack took place on the Ukrainian electricity distribution network. This is regarded as one of the first cyber‐physical attacks on electricity infrastructure to have led to a substantial power outage and is illustrative of the increasing vulnerability of Critical National Infrastructure to this type of malicious activity. Few data points, coupled with the rapid emergence of cyber phenomena, has held back the development of resilience analytics of cyber‐physical attacks, relative to many other threats. We propose to overcome data limitations by applying stochastic counterfactual risk analysis as part of a new vulnerability assessment framework. The method is developed in the context of the direct and indirect socioeconomic impacts of a Ukrainian‐style cyber‐physical attack taking place on the electricity distribution network serving London and its surrounding regions. A key finding is that if decision‐makers wish to mitigate major population disruptions, then they must invest resources more‐or‐less equally across all substations, to prevent the scaling of a cyber‐physical attack. However, there are some substations associated with higher economic value due to their support of other Critical National Infrastructures assets, which justifies the allocation of additional cyber security investment to reduce the chance of cascading failure. Further cyber‐physical vulnerability research must address the tradeoffs inherent in a system made up of multiple institutions with different strategic risk mitigation objectives and metrics of value, such as governments, infrastructure operators, and commercial consumers of infrastructure services.     

Improving fire risk communication between authorities and micro-entrepreneurs: A mental models study of Ghanaian central market fires

This study conceptualizes how fire management authorities can empower nonexpert public to participate in fire risk communication processes and increase their own responsibilities for managing fire preventive, protective and recovery processes effectively. Drawing narratives from 10 disaster management experts working at government institutions and nine micro-entrepreneurs operating self-sustaining businesses in different merchandized lines in Ghana, we analyzed the data thematically and explored new insights on mental models to generate a two-way fire risk communication model. The findings suggest that fire management authorities planned fire disasters at the strategic level, collaborated with multiple stakeholders, disseminated information through many risk communication methods, and utilized their capabilities to manage fire at the various stages of fire risk communication, but the outcomes were poor. The micro-entrepreneurs sought to improve fire management outcomes through attitude change, law enforcement actions, strengthened security and better public trust building. The study has implications for policymakers, governments, and risk communication authorities of developing countries to strengthen their fire disaster policies to minimize commercial fire incidents and address the damaging effects of fire on people's livelihoods, businesses, properties, and environments. Our proposed two-way fire risk communication model is a new theoretical lens for experts and the nonexpert public to assess each other's beliefs about risk information and manage fire risk communication effectively at all stages.     

Accumulation of deicing salts in soils in an urban environment

Examining rates of deicing salt accumulation and leaching in urban soils is important for understanding the distribution and movement of salt in the environment. We examined autumn concentrations of deicing salts in soils in a moderately dense urban landscape in eastern New York State. The study area contrasted to the isolated, rural highways examined in previous studies. While NaCl was the most abundantly applied salt, Mg²⁺ (apparently from MgCl₂, a secondary deicing salt) was the most abundant salt cation in soils. Moderate Na⁺ levels, and equivalent concentrations at depth and in surface samples, indicate that leaching of Na⁺ is rapid in this system. Leaching may ameliorate toxicity for land plants but accelerate inputs to aquatic systems. In contrast to rural highway studies, where salt levels declined rapidly with distance to pavement, Na⁺ remained elevated at the maximum distance measured. Airborne salt dispersal and dense networks of pavement likely contribute to widespread elevated salt levels. This semi-urban setting had salt levels high enough to be toxic to terrestrial plants and soil protozoa. Even moderate levels of development can have dramatic effects on salt inputs into soils and aquatic systems.

Rural Depopulation: Growth and Decline Processes over the Past Century

This article highlights the rise and geographic spread of depopulation in rural America over the past century. “Depopulation” refers to chronic population losses that prevent counties from returning to an earlier period of peak population size. In this article, we identify 746 depopulating counties—mostly nonmetropolitan—representing 24 percent of all U.S. counties. More than 46 percent of remote rural counties are depopulating compared to 24 percent of the adjacent nonmetropolitan counties and just 6 percent of metropolitan counties. Rural county populations often peaked in size during the 1940s and 1950s, especially in the agricultural heartland. Depopulation today reflects a complex interplay of chronic net out‐migration and natural decrease that is rooted in the past. Depopulation not only is a direct result of persistent out‐migration but also reflects large second‐order effects expressed in declining fertility and rising mortality (usually associated with population aging). Depopulation has become a signature demographic phenomenon in broad regions of rural America.     

Contextualizing Migrants' Strategies of Seeking Medical Care in Russia*

Russia is an important destination for labour migrants from the former Soviet Union republics especially Central Asian low‐income countries: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The life of migrants from Central Asia is characterized in Russia by scarce resources and social exclusion. Limited access to healthcare is aggravated by the negative attitudes and discrimination that migrants face when visiting state hospitals and clinics. In our study, we aim to describe the medical infrastructure available to migrants in Moscow. We investigate how migrants use formal and informal strategies to overcome the barriers to their receiving medical care in the urban environment. The study is based on the analysis of qualitative interviews with 60 labour migrants from Central Asian countries and 23 caregivers working in Moscow‐based medical facilities such as state hospitals, outpatient clinics, ambulance stations, and private medical centres including the so‐called Kyrgyz clinics.     

An examination of ecological predictors of health literacy in black college students

Objective: Health literacy is a determinant of health, but disparities in health literacy persist. This study examined the influence of ecological factors on college students’ health literacy. Participants: During January 2016 a nonrandom sample of black undergraduate students (n = 298) aged 18–24 were recruited from enrollment lists at two urban universities in the Southeastern United States. Methods: Information on health literacy as well as numerous intrapersonal, social, and cultural-environment factors was obtained using an electronic questionnaire and then statistically modeled. Results: Ecological factors accounted for 28.7% of the variance in health literacy. In particular, reappraisal (B = 0.323, p < .001), suppression (B = ?0.289, p < .001), campus health education (B = 0.192, p < .05), campus tobacco culture (B = ?0.174, p < .05), and perceived norms (B = ?0.153, p < .05) directly predicted health literacy. Conclusions: Although intrapersonal factors influence health literacy, the sociocultural environment of college can also foster or hinder college students’ health literacy.     

Adoption Issues: Preparation of Psychologists and an Evaluation of the Need for Continuing Education

This study is an investigation ofthe level ofpreparation psychologists have in dealing with adoption issues and an assessment of the need for further education in treating triad members. A questionnaire was mailed to 497psychologists randomly selectedfrom the National Register of Health Service Providers in Psychology who received doctoral degrees between the years of 1990 and 1996. Two hundred and ten psychologists, all ofwhom were currently treating clients, participated in the study. Psychologists completed a Likert rating of their sense of preparation to treat triad members. The largest group (51%) rated themselves as “Somewhat prepared,” with the second largest group (23%) rating themselves as “Not very prepared.” Ninety percent reported they needed more education in adoption, and 81% reported interest in taking a continuing education course in adoption. Of the 210 participants, only 67 reported taking courses that dealt with adoption as part oftheirformal education. Of those psychologists who reported taking courses that involved adoption, they averaged only 1.3 courses during their undergraduate education, and 1.5 courses during graduate education, while the remaining 143 psychologists received no education in this area. When one considers the proportion oftriad members seen clinically, this study suggests psychologists need more education and background information about the effects ofthe adoption process.     

Remain,Return, or Re-migrate? The (Im)mobility Trajectory of Mainland Chinese Students after Completing Their Education in the UK

The migration of Chinese students to the UK has long been the focus of academic and policy-making attention. However, what happens to their transnational mobility after their education remains understudied. This article unpacks the migration decision-making process behind graduates' study-to-employment transition. We focus on individuals' on-going reinterpretation of capital convertibility between China and the UK and examine how the meaning of mobility changes in time and in the transnational socio-economic environment. In so doing, we draw on in-depth interviews with graduates who have remained in the UK, as well as with returnees. Our findings reveal our participants' periodic uncertainty about professional opportunities and attendant mobility choices in the context of fast-paced socio-economic change in China and in the UK. The article thus calls for a more supportive post-study work policy environment for international students in the UK, especially in the context of uncertainty about Brexit.