Functional Autoregression for Sparsely Sampled Data

We develop a hierarchical Gaussian process model for forecasting and inference of functional time series data. Unlike existing methods, our approach is especially suited for sparsely or irregularly sampled curves and for curves sampled with nonnegligible measurement error. The latent process is dynamically modeled as a functional autoregression (FAR) with Gaussian process innovations. We propose a fully nonparametric dynamic functional factor model for the dynamic innovation process, with broader applicability and improved computational efficiency over standard Gaussian process models. We prove finite-sample forecasting and interpolation optimality properties of the proposed model, which remain valid with the Gaussian assumption relaxed. An efficient Gibbs sampling algorithm is developed for estimation, inference, and forecasting, with extensions for FAR(p) models with model averaging over the lag p. Extensive simulations demonstrate substantial improvements in forecasting performance and recovery of the autoregressive surface over competing methods, especially under sparse designs. We apply the proposed methods to forecast nominal and real yield curves using daily U.S. data. Real yields are observed more sparsely than nominal yields, yet the proposed methods are highly competitive in both settings. Supplementary materials, including R code and the yield curve data, are available online.     

Reducing unemployment? Examining the interplay between active labour market policies

Active labour market policies (ALMP) are important tools that welfare states utilize to influence the labour market. This study analyses the macroeconomic effects of different types of ALMP spending on aggregate unemployment rates, and especially if there is evidence of interdependencies between policies. The types of policies scrutinized are public employment services (PES), training programs, public job creation and subsidized employment, where the PES is singled out as a crucial factor that moderates the effects of other types of labour market programs. The study examines 19 welfare states between 1985 and 2013, using error correction modelling to separate between short‐ and long‐term effects. The results indicate that PES, training and subsidized employment reduce unemployment in the short‐run, whereas PES and wage subsidies are associated with reduced unemployment when considering long‐term effects. However, PES is found to have indirect effects on other policy types and increased spending on PES is shown to reinforce long‐term effects of training programs.     

Selection,Optimization, and Compensation: Strategies to Maintain,Maximize, and Generate Resources in Later Life in the Face of Chronic Illnesses

This qualitative study of 45 older adults examines how they allocate their resources in the face of chronic health conditions. Participants were recruited from 2 senior centers and interviewed about their repertoire of activities, any changes in those activities in later life, and meanings they ascribed to those changes. The Selection, Optimization, and Compensation model guided our analysis and interpretation of participants' responses. The findings demonstrate the complexity of participants' responses to age-related changes, particularly in how they adapted and negotiated both their perception and life goals when faced with changing social landscapes. We discuss some implications and nuances of our findings.     

Culture,Place of Origin,and Service Delivery for Latino Older Adult Immigrants: The Case of Puerto Rican Older Adults

ABSTRACT

A conceptual model for the design and implementation of effective social services for Latino older adult immigrants in the United States is proposed in this article. Built on the stage-of-migration framework (Drachman, 1992 Drachman, D. 1992. A stage-of-migration framework for service to immigrant populations. Social Work, 37: 68–72. [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), the model presented shows how the premigration service experience of Latino older adults can be used as a basis for service design and implementation in the country of immigration. The case of Puerto Rican older adult immigrants is used to illustrate how the model can be applied to understand present service utilization and develop future programs that are useful and culturally sensitive for Latino older adult immigrants.     

The Intergenerational Transmission of Financial Stress and Relationship Outcomes

Numerous studies have focused on the intergenerational transmission of poverty, financial stress, and family functioning. Other research has shown how financial stressors can predict various family processes, including parent–child interactions, family conflict, and couple communication, and relationship outcomes, including marital stability and satisfaction. This study shows continued evidence that financial stress from the male and female partner's family of origin may predict marital dissatisfaction using dyadic data techniques. Also, an exploration of indirect paths also found that the presence of current financial stress partially mediates these associations.     

Evaluation of the What's Real: Myths & Facts about Marriage Curriculum: Differential Impacts of Gender*

ABSTRACT

What’s Real is a high school marriage education curriculum designed to teach students how to develop healthy relationships and marriages. This study evaluated the effectiveness of this curriculum with 206 high school students who were in either the What’s Real group or a control group. Findings suggest that the curriculum increases knowledge of healthy relationship concepts, positively impacts attitudes related to students’ willingness to be involved in pre- and postmarital counseling, and increases students’ attitudes toward cohabitation avoidance. Implications for further development of the curriculum and other implications for practitioners and policymakers are discussed.     

Lessons Learned: Pedagogical Tensions and Struggles with Instruction on Multiculturalism in Social Work Education Programs

While the importance of multiculturalism to social work education and practice has been extensively theorized in the social work literature, very little empirical attention has been paid to the concrete experiences of social work students within the classroom. The socializing influence of pedagogy is one aspect of the professionalization process that must be considered in addressing issues of diversity and inclusion in graduate education programs. This article addresses this gap by describing and analyzing the narratives of 15 minority graduate social work students. It examines their perception and experiences with instruction on multiculturalism with the graduate curriculum and the meaning they assign to these experiences. Their narratives illuminate the myriad ways that the curriculum excludes minority students and reproduces social inequality. Social work education has a responsibility to eliminate racism and inequality from the content of its courses and in its teaching methods. The identification of these negative socializing messages may assist educators in structuring curricular and pedagogical practices that can facilitate the academic success of all students.     

The Path to Social Work: Contextual Determinants of Career Choice among Racial/Ethnic Minority Students

While the importance of multiculturalism to social work education and practice have been extensively theorized in the social work literature, very little empirical attention has been paid to the concrete experiences of social work students with instruction on multiculturalism. The experience of students within the multicultural classroom is one aspect of the professionalization process that must be considered in addressing issues of diversity and inclusion in graduate education programs. This article addresses this gap by describing and analyzing the narratives of 15 minority graduate social work students. It examines their perception and experiences with the graduate multicultural curriculum and the meaning they assign to these experiences. Their narratives illuminate the myriad ways that the curriculum excludes minority students and reproduces social inequality. Social work education has a responsibility to eliminate racism and inequality from the content of its courses and in its teaching methodologies. The identification of these negative socializing messages may assist educators in structuring curricular and pedagogical practices that are compatible with the multiethnic groups that both serve and are served by the profession.     

Growing up is hard to do: Rock and roll performers as cultural heroes

This paper describes the changing nature of the rock and roll artist as a cultural symbol. The first rock stars (e.g., Elvis) were heroes for the young but decidedly antiheroic to adult society. Transitional ones (e.g., Beatles, Bob Dylan) contributed to the commercial viability of rock and more sharply defined their antiheroism in the 1960's. Contemporary artists are drawn from a wider variety of backgrounds (e.g., Tina Turner, Michael Jackson, Bruce Springsteen) and their cultural significance extends beyond their musical talents. The Live Aid, USA for Africa, and Farm Aid efforts illustrate the latter point. The contemporary heroic status of rock stars is due to two factors: 1) Over the years rock and roll has gradually become pop music; and 2) The antiheroic protests that rock was originally identified with have become more acceptable, even institutionalized. Rock stars are a kind of “new” hero. Their link to the mass media ensures visibility and discloses their antiheroism as well. In a complex process of social typing (also involving media and various audiences), they may reinforce cultural dreams and values, suggest deviant modes of expression, or aid in the development of new cultural forms.