全文获取类型
收费全文 | 3975篇 |
免费 | 157篇 |
专业分类
管理学 | 539篇 |
民族学 | 26篇 |
人才学 | 1篇 |
人口学 | 380篇 |
丛书文集 | 23篇 |
理论方法论 | 490篇 |
综合类 | 76篇 |
社会学 | 1824篇 |
统计学 | 773篇 |
出版年
2023年 | 35篇 |
2022年 | 21篇 |
2021年 | 49篇 |
2020年 | 97篇 |
2019年 | 139篇 |
2018年 | 135篇 |
2017年 | 176篇 |
2016年 | 150篇 |
2015年 | 110篇 |
2014年 | 121篇 |
2013年 | 661篇 |
2012年 | 181篇 |
2011年 | 156篇 |
2010年 | 124篇 |
2009年 | 116篇 |
2008年 | 104篇 |
2007年 | 111篇 |
2006年 | 105篇 |
2005年 | 77篇 |
2004年 | 92篇 |
2003年 | 77篇 |
2002年 | 70篇 |
2001年 | 66篇 |
2000年 | 73篇 |
1999年 | 86篇 |
1998年 | 68篇 |
1997年 | 55篇 |
1996年 | 45篇 |
1995年 | 55篇 |
1994年 | 63篇 |
1993年 | 51篇 |
1992年 | 54篇 |
1991年 | 40篇 |
1990年 | 38篇 |
1989年 | 31篇 |
1988年 | 37篇 |
1987年 | 37篇 |
1986年 | 31篇 |
1985年 | 41篇 |
1984年 | 40篇 |
1983年 | 31篇 |
1982年 | 29篇 |
1981年 | 24篇 |
1980年 | 27篇 |
1979年 | 25篇 |
1978年 | 22篇 |
1977年 | 18篇 |
1976年 | 22篇 |
1974年 | 16篇 |
1973年 | 16篇 |
排序方式: 共有4132条查询结果,搜索用时 156 毫秒
111.
The paper analyzes the systematic risk which is inherent in a portfolio of deferred life annuities. We take into account stochastic mortality as well as stochastic interest rates. For the specification of the mortality rate dynamics, we consider a pure diffusion model as well as a compound Poisson jump model. The interest rate dynamics are given by a one-factor Hull–White model. All models, interest rate and mortality rate, are calibrated to financial market as well as demographic data. We use Monte Carlo simulations to approximate the variance of the discounted cash flow and its decomposition into a pooling and a non-pooling risk part. We also consider pricing effects using the principle of zero expected utility and the quantile principle. The estimated risk premiums are benchmarked to the equivalence premium. Finally, we focus on solvency requirements which are based on the investment decisions and the associated shortfall probability of the annuity provider. 相似文献
112.
R.I. Woods 《Population studies》2013,67(2):283-311
The secular decline of marital fertility which took place in late nineteenth and early twentieth-century England and Wales is considered by using a number of approaches. Among the theoretical approaches considered are those of transition models, and social diffusion. The former overemphasises the role of industrialization and urbanization; the latter is inappropriate when dealing with the development of a small-family ideal in Victorian society. Explanations of fertility decline using ecological and time-series analysis are considered. The registration districts of England and Wales provide the framework for analyses of spatial variations in marital fertility and its correlates in 1861, 1891 and 1911. A time-series analysis attempts to establish the sequential nature of social, economic and demographic changes during the sixty years preceding the First World War. The following points are emphasised in conclusion. The Victorian fertility transition was not directly related to the development of an urban-industrial society, the social diffusion of family ideals or the use of appliance methods of contraception. But its immediate cause was probably linked to the substantial increase in family planning literature available from the 1870s, and the challenge that this posed to the tradition of unlimited marital fertility. This critical change in social attitudes to family planning was facilitated both by developments in mass education and, ultimately by the decline of infant mortality. 相似文献
113.
114.
We describe a first experiment on whether product complexity affects competition and consumers in retail markets. We are unable
to detect a significant effect of product complexity on prices, except insofar as the demand elasticity for complex products
is higher. However, there is qualified evidence that complex products have the potential to induce consumers to buy more than
they would otherwise. In this sense, consumer exploitability in quantities cannot be ruled out. We also find evidence for
shaping effects: consumers’ preferences are shaped by past experience with prices, and firms may in principle exploit this
to sell more. 相似文献
115.
ABSTRACTThis article analyzes the role of STEM initiatives designed by city and corporate elites in a large urban district and outlines an alternative, grassroots vision for (STEM) education and city schools. Within a neoliberal context of gentrification, displacement, disinvestment, and privatization, STEM schools have become strategic components of Chicago’s ‘portfolio district’ that serve the interests of racial capitalism in three ways. First, STEM schools provide a claim to fairness in the midst of racist school closures. Second, STEM high schools are a corporate strategy for racially stratified labor force preparation that restricts curriculum and reifies tracking. Third, curriculum restriction prioritizes corporate interests over students’ capacity to shape their communities and the world. The authors draw on the wisdom of Chicago communities who have led resistance against corporate education reform to critique Chicago STEM policy and point to critical mathematics and science education as part of a model for sustainable community schools. 相似文献
116.
Daniel A. Ackerberg Kevin Caves Garth Frazer 《Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society》2015,83(6):2411-2451
This paper examines some of the recent literature on the estimation of production functions. We focus on techniques suggested in two recent papers, Olley and Pakes (1996) and Levinsohn and Petrin (2003). While there are some solid and intuitive identification ideas in these papers, we argue that the techniques can suffer from functional dependence problems. We suggest an alternative approach that is based on the ideas in these papers, but does not suffer from the functional dependence problems and produces consistent estimates under alternative data generating processes for which the original procedures do not. 相似文献
117.
118.
Statistics and Computing - Variable clustering is important for explanatory analysis. However, only few dedicated methods for variable clustering with the Gaussian graphical model have been... 相似文献
119.
Shaun R. Seaman Daniel Farewell Ian R. White 《Scandinavian Journal of Statistics》2016,43(4):996-1018
Linear increments (LI) are used to analyse repeated outcome data with missing values. Previously, two LI methods have been proposed, one allowing non‐monotone missingness but not independent measurement error and one allowing independent measurement error but only monotone missingness. In both, it was suggested that the expected increment could depend on current outcome. We show that LI can allow non‐monotone missingness and either independent measurement error of unknown variance or dependence of expected increment on current outcome but not both. A popular alternative to LI is a multivariate normal model ignoring the missingness pattern. This gives consistent estimation when data are normally distributed and missing at random (MAR). We clarify the relation between MAR and the assumptions of LI and show that for continuous outcomes multivariate normal estimators are also consistent under (non‐MAR and non‐normal) assumptions not much stronger than those of LI. Moreover, when missingness is non‐monotone, they are typically more efficient. 相似文献
120.
One particular recurrent events data scenario involves patients experiencing events according to a common intensity rate, and then a treatment may be applied. The treatment might be effective for a limited amount of time, so that the intensity rate would be expected to change abruptly when the effect of the treatment wears out. In particular, we allow models for the intensity rate, post-treatment, to be at first decreasing and then change to increasing (and vice versa). Two estimators of the location of this change are proposed. 相似文献