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141.
Daniel E. O'Leary 《决策科学》1987,18(3):468-486
This paper proposes a set of definitions for the concepts “validation” and “assessment” applied to expert systems (ESs). It develops a framework for this validation and demonstrates the framework on existing accounting and auditing ESs to elicit some of the research issues involved in ES validation. Validation is critical to the design and implementation of decision-making ESs. In a setting where objectivity is sought and variance is avoided, validation ascertains what a system knows, knows incorrectly, or does not know. Validation ascertains the system's level of expertise and investigates the theoretical basis on which the system is based. It evaluates the reliability of decisions made by the system. The validation framework developed in this paper is research methods. It is designed to reflect the unique aspects of ESs (in contrast to other types of computer programs) and can be used by ES developers as a basis from which to perform validation and by researchers as a framework to elicit research issues in validation. 相似文献
142.
Decision analysis tools often are used in semistructured and ill-structured situations. While some researchers have argued that computerized decision analysis programs may improve decision quality in such situations, research support for this assertion is weak. In this laboratory study, business students used a computerized decision-analysis program with short strategic-management cases to prepare decision reports. Independent raters' perceptions of aided and unaided decision performance were contrasted, attitudes of students toward the program were assessed, individual differences were correlated with attitudes, and the program's impact on students' perceptions of their decision processes and performance was examined. Student attitudes toward the computerized aid were favorable, and individual differences in reactions generally were as predicted. However, the program did not improve the independent ratings of students' decision reports and recommendations. These findings suggest that computerized decision aids should be adopted cautiously. If such aids result in positive user affect and heightened decision confidence without corresponding improvements in decision quality, they may be dysfunctional. Rigorous research methodologies which incorporate independent evaluations of analyses and decisions are recommended for use in future research on computerized decision-analysis programs. 相似文献
143.
We consider the intersection between two striking U.S. trends: dramatic increases in the imprisonment of fathers and increases in the proportion of mothers who have children with more than one partner (multiple-partner fertility, or MPF). Using matched longitudinal administrative data that provide unusually comprehensive and accurate information about the occurrence and timing of imprisonment, fertility, and MPF for the population of the state of Wisconsin, we consider the relationship between paternal imprisonment and MPF among unwed mothers. Employing discrete-time event history analysis with multinomial logistic regression, we model the occurrence and timing of the mother’s second birth, distinguishing between a birth with the same father and a birth with a different father, and distinguishing between current imprisonment and a history of imprisonment. We find that current imprisonment is associated with an increased likelihood of MPF and a decreased likelihood of fertility with the same father (compared with no additional birth) and that a history of imprisonment is associated with increased MPF in some models but not in our preferred model. To control for unobserved heterogeneity among mothers and assess the evidence of a causal effect of fathers’ imprisonment, we also employ the case-time-control method, a fixed-effects method for the analysis of nonrepeated events. Results suggest that fathers’ current imprisonment may increase mothers’ MPF. Policy implications are discussed. 相似文献
144.
The economic recession, the dynamism and complexity of the markets and the generalised globalisation of the world economy have forced many companies to rethink and reorganise their industrial strategies. Through identifying and taking advantage of the key technologies of a company, this work presents a new and original methodology for dealing with a general technological diversification process. The methodology, which includes an innovative cognitive perspective and its corresponding decisional tool (decision support system) has been used to select the best product in a process of technological diversification that, along with the key technologies, identifies the sub-levels consonant to the sub-technologies and applications to sectors and products. The multicriteria selection tool employed in the proposed methodology, based on the analytic hierarchy process, allows the integration of multiple scenarios, actors and criteria, both tangible and intangible. The methodology has been applied to a case study in the Spanish automotive auxiliary sector. 相似文献
145.
Paul G. Devereux Daniel J. Weigel Deborah Ballard-Reisch Geoffrey Leigh Kristy L. Cahoon 《Child and Adolescent Social Work Journal》2009,26(5):431-446
Despite the substantial amount of literature focusing on social support for pregnant and parenting adolescents, few studies
have directly examined the relationships among stress and social support across their transition to parenting. The present
study investigates the nature of the relationship between stress and support both before and after the birth of the baby.
Two groups of adolescent females (one group facing parenthood and one not) completed measures of support and stress across
a 7-month period (N = 231) to coincide with the transition to parenthood. In general, support and stress were negatively related when measured
concurrently and positively related over time for parenting adolescents but not the non-parenting group. Understanding how
long social support impacts stress will enable practitioners to identify when best to provide interventions for pregnant and
parenting adolescents. 相似文献
146.
We examined the community field perspective as a complement to the linear‐development and systemic models of community attachment, wherein community attachment is defined as a social bond to the community of place. We empirically evaluated indicators of the actor's interaction within the social field, such as the perceived quality of neighboring and density of friendships, using social survey and census data from 99 communities in 1994 and 2004 and evaluated as well the percentage change in these indicators from 1994 to 2004. Results show that the community field perspective can complement previous approaches by highlighting the importance of perceived neighboring and friendship density and the persistence of perceived neighboring over time. We suggest implications for community development efforts aimed at enhancing community attachment. 相似文献
147.
Daniel J. Delgado 《Sociology Compass》2010,4(11):947-964
Middle-class Latin@ identity is a rare discussion in the racial/ethnic studies and identity literatures. Often the Latin@ middle class is invisible as much of the research focuses on the poor, working class and immigrant populations. This article provides a discussion of literature that addresses the shape of middle-class Latin@ identity. It then moves to provide a theoretical and conceptual framework of strategies of identity negotiation for middle-class Latin@s based on this existing literature. Ultimately, it provides a much needed shift in both the identity and race/ethnic studies literatures by balancing structural and agentic elements of conceptualizing how middle-class Latin@ people’s identities are maintained, constructed, and negotiated. 相似文献
148.
Siu-Kei Wong Lawrence Wai-Chung Lai Daniel Chi-Wing Ho Kwong-Wing Chau Cindy Lo-Kuen Lam Chris Hung-Fai Ng 《Habitat International》2009,33(4):463-471
The outbreak of a highly communicable disease, SARS, in Asia in 2003 has revealed the health risk of living in a high-density environment. To show the important connection between human health and environmental quality, this study surveys the prevalence of sick building syndrome (SBS) among apartment residents and their evaluation of indoor environmental quality (IEQ). Based on a sample of 748 households living in Hong Kong, two interesting findings are revealed: (1) nasal discomfort was the commonest home-related SBS symptom despite the absence of any central ventilation system in apartment buildings; (2) noise, rather than ventilation, was the major IEQ problem perceived by residents. Our statistical analysis further showed that residents with SBS symptoms were less satisfied with their IEQ than those without. That is, despite a positive evaluation of specific IEQ criteria with respect to the building residents lived in, if they reported feeling SBS related symptoms, the overall IEQ evaluation of their building could still be negative. This perception bias gives rise to a sample selection problem in measuring perceived IEQ, which has implications on housing management practices and the formulation of a healthy housing policy. 相似文献
149.
Denys Yemshanov Frank H. Koch Daniel W. McKenney Marla C. Downing Frank Sapio 《Risk analysis》2009,29(6):868-884
Nonindigenous species have caused significant impacts to North American forests despite past and present international phytosanitary efforts. Though broadly acknowledged, the risks of pest invasions are difficult to quantify as they involve interactions between many factors that operate across a range of spatial and temporal scales: the transmission of invading organisms via various pathways, their spread and establishment in new environments. Our study presents a stochastic simulation approach to quantify these risks and associated uncertainties through time in a unified fashion. We outline this approach with an example of a forest pest recently detected in North America, Sirex noctilio Fabricius. We simulate new potential entries of S. noctilio as a stochastic process, based on recent volumes of marine shipments of commodities from countries where S. noctilio is established, as well as the broad dynamics of foreign marine imports. The results are then linked with a spatial model that simulates the spread of S. noctilio within the geographical distribution of its hosts (pines) while incorporating existing knowledge about its behavior in North American landscapes. Through replications, this approach yields a spatial representation of S. noctilio risks and uncertainties in a single integrated product. The approach should also be appealing to decisionmakers, since it accounts for projected flows of commodities that may serve as conduits for pest entry. Our 30-year forecasts indicate high establishment probability in Ontario, Quebec, and the northeastern United States, but further southward expansion of S. noctilio is uncertain, ultimately depending on the impact of recent international treatment standards for wood packing materials. 相似文献
150.
Persistent anomalies in the results of willingness to pay studies, despite improvements in measurement technique, challenge the assumption in economics that all sources of value are commensurable. Two sources of incommensurability have been identified: interdimensional incommensurability, which refers to the cognitive difficulty that people encounter when trying to assign a monetary value to health; and constitutive incommensurability, which arises when some forms of trade-off are regarded as ‘taboo’. In this paper we explore whether the notion of taboo trade-offs might explain some of the difficulties experienced in health-related willingness to pay studies. 相似文献