Efficient designs based on orthogonal arrays of type I and type II for experiments using units ordered over time or space

For a wide variety of applications, experiments are based on units ordered over time or space. Models for these experiments generally may include one or more of: correlations, systematic trends, carryover effects and interference effects. Since the standard optimal block designs may not be efficient in these situations, orthogonal arrays of type I and type II, which were introduced in 1961 by C.R. Rao [Combinatorial arrangements analogous to orthogonal arrays, Sankhya A 23 (1961) 283–286], have been recently used to construct optimal and efficient designs for many of these experiments. Results in this area are unified and the salient features are outlined.     

Secondary analysis of dangerousness among death sentenced capital murderers

The theory of incapacitation involves reducing an offender's ability or capacity to commit further crimes. Capital punishment accomplishes this goal. An executed murderer never murders again. However, we do not execute all murderers, only capital murderers. This policy produces several research questions. Do capital murderers present a special risk to society? Are capital murderers more likely to murder or commit other violent crimes again than other murderers or the average citizen? To answer these questions, many states require a prediction of future dangerousness of a newly convicted murderer. To what extent has the judgment of future dangerousness matched actuarial data of subsequent murders and serious crimes? Using a secondary analysis, this investigation attempted to assemble available data of postconviction dangerousness of death sentenced capital murderers to create a more comprehensive actuarial account of subsequent dangerousness and to present the data in a common format used by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Across 14 studies identified with relevant data, there were 13 instances of subsequent murder and 462 serious crime or prison rule violations.     

Quantifying uncertainty in the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales

Summary.  A crucial issue in the current global warming debate is the effect of vegetation and soils on carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations in the atmosphere. Vegetation can extract CO₂ through photosynthesis, but respiration, decay of soil organic matter and disturbance effects such as fire return it to the atmosphere. The balance of these processes is the net carbon flux. To estimate the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales, we address the statistical problem of inference for the sum of multiple outputs from a complex deterministic computer code whose input parameters are uncertain. The code is a process model which simulates the carbon dynamics of vegetation and soils, including the amount of carbon that is stored as a result of photosynthesis and the amount that is returned to the atmosphere through respiration. The aggregation of outputs corresponding to multiple sites and types of vegetation in a region gives an estimate of the total carbon flux for that region over a period of time. Expert prior opinions are elicited for marginal uncertainty about the relevant input parameters and for correlations of inputs between sites. A Gaussian process model is used to build emulators of the multiple code outputs and Bayesian uncertainty analysis is then used to propagate uncertainty in the input parameters through to uncertainty on the aggregated output. Numerical results are presented for England and Wales in the year 2000. It is estimated that vegetation and soils in England and Wales constituted a net sink of 7.55 Mt C (1 Mt C = 10¹² g of carbon) in 2000, with standard deviation 0.56 Mt C resulting from the sources of uncertainty that are considered.     

How faith‐based social service organizations manage secular pressures associated with government funding

This article reports selected findings from a qualitative case study of two faith‐based social service organizations to address two questions: (1) How does government funding influence the religious characteristics of faith‐based social service organizations? (2) How do government‐funded, faith‐based social service organizations manage the tensions arising from both secular and religious contexts? The findings suggest that the adaptation of secular institutional practices is not as inevitable as some have feared. Rather, the two organizations studied showed convincingly that their faith traditions and values were alive and widely evident throughout their organizations. Three key strategies emerged as means for maintaining religiousness in the face of secular pressures: (1) Religious identities were perceived as given rather than chosen, and therefore were not negotiable; (2) religious values provided strong justification for seeking relationships with others who do not share their faith; (3) the religious worldview blurred religious and secular distinctions so that secular technologies and practices could comfortably be utilized.     

Facilitative Aspects of Field Research with Deviant Street Populations*

The authors examine facilitative aspects of field research with deviant street populations. Based on the authors' research with the homeless and with male street prostitutes, the facilitative aspects include access to settings, social relationships, acquisition of information, and the maintenance of researcher interest. The authors argue that in each of these aspects street deviants may in some ways be easier to study than other populations. The paper concludes with suggestions for maximizing the efficiency and quality of fieldwork with specific deviant populations.     

Fast retraction of evidence in a probabilistic expert system

We present and justify a propagation algorithm to facilitate the simultaneous calculation, for every node in a probabilistic exper system of the distribution of the associated random quantity, conditional on all the evidence obtained about the remaining nodes.     

Sexual identity in the ghetto

The more things change, the worse they get.Presented April 18, 1991, Duke University, at the Department of Psychiatry's Grand Rounds, this paper condenses, integrates and updates the author's earlier publication. Acknowledgement and thanks for funding and professional sponsorship of the four research studies this paper draws from are selectively due to the Eugene and Agnes E. Meyer Foundation, the Edgar Stern Family Fund, The National Institute for Mental Health, the Baltimore-Washington Institute for Psychoanalysis and the Department of Psychiatry, Children's Hospital National Medical Center.