《周易》与北宋治国理政思想——以《宋朝诸臣奏议》为中心的考察

北宋士大夫为复兴三代之治,重建王道政治秩序,主张以经术治天下,重视经学的经世功能。在探索王道的过程中,士大夫以《周易》为经世之大法而推崇备至,并注重运用《周易》义理指导现实的政治实践。他们通过在奏议中引用《周易》经义议论时政,为朝廷提出合乎圣人之道的治国之策以实现儒家通经致用的理想。在北宋奏议中,士大夫不仅以《周易》经义培育皇帝的政治道德,而且还从《周易》中厘定出内政治理原则施用于今,从修己、治人两方面充分展现了易学的经世指向。他们以《周易》经义作为评判现实政治得失的标准,批评并制止不合经义的政治行为,规正政治发展方向,从而使《周易》对北宋治国理政思想产生了深远影响。     

Semiparametric Efficient Estimation in the Generalized Odds-Rate Class of Regression Models for Right-Censored Time-to-Event Data

The generalized odds-rate class of regression models for time to event data is indexed by a non-negative constant and assumes thatg(S(t|Z)) = (t) + Zwhere g(s) = log(^-1(s-) for > 0, g₀(s) = log(- log s), S(t|Z) is the survival function of the time to event for an individual with qx1 covariate vector Z, is a qx1 vector of unknown regression parameters, and (t) is some arbitrary increasing function of t. When =0, this model is equivalent to the proportional hazards model and when =1, this model reduces to the proportional odds model. In the presence of right censoring, we construct estimators for and exp((t)) and show that they are consistent and asymptotically normal. In addition, we show that the estimator for is semiparametric efficient in the sense that it attains the semiparametric variance bound.     

A Comparison of Methods for Estimating the Benchmark Dose Based on Overdispersed Data from Developmental Toxicity Studies

Developmental anomalies resulting from prenatal toxicity can be manifested in terms of both malformations among surviving offspring and prenatal death. Although these two endpoints have traditionally been analyzed separately in the assessment of risk, multivariate methods of risk characterization have recently been proposed. We examined this and other issues in developmental toxicity risk assessment by evaluating the accuracy and precision of estimates of the effective dose ( ED ₀₅) and the benchmark dose ( BMD ₀₅) using computer simulation. Our results indicated that different variance structures (Dirichlet-trinomial and generalized linear model) used to characterize overdispersion yielded comparable results when fitting joint dose response models based on generalized estimating equations. (The choice of variance structure in separate modeling was also not critical.) However, using the Rao-Scott transformation to eliminate overdispersion tended to produce estimates of the ED ₀₅ with reduced bias and mean squared error. Because joint modeling ensures that the ED ₀₅ for overall toxicity (based on both malformations and prenatal death) is always less than the ED ₀₅ for either malformations or prenatal death, joint modeling is preferred to separate modeling for risk assessment purposes.     

Pathways to a Stable Union? Pregnancy and Childbearing Among Cohabiting and Married Couples

This study analyzes the stability of cohabiting and marital unions following a first birth. But unlike previous research, it compares the subsequent trajectories of unions that began with a pregnancy to those in which conceptions came after coresidence. The U.S. data from the 2006–2010 and 2011–2013 cross-sectional files of the National Survey of Family Growth indicate that roughly 1-in-5 first births were associated with rapid transitions from conception into either cohabitation or marriage. Moving in together following a pregnancy—especially an unintended one—is unlikely to lead to marital success or union stability. Compared with marital unions, dissolution rates following birth were particularly high for couples who entered a cohabiting union following conception. Only a small minority of these couples married (i.e., less than one-third), and these marriages experienced high dissolution rates. The results also suggest that the most committed cohabiting couples got married after finding themselves pregnant, leaving behind the most dissolution-prone cohabiting couples. The American family system is being transformed by newly emerging patterns of fertility among cohabiting couples.     

A new value stream mapping approach for healthcare environments

Hospitals worldwide are giving a growing emphasis to the application of lean concepts in the healthcare sector, commonly known as ‘lean healthcare’. A fundamental tool that allows such implementations is the value stream mapping (VSM). The problem is that VSM models used in implementations of lean healthcare are simple adaptations of the original VSM model, which was initially directed towards manufacturing and may not always represent important support activities for the patient flow that directly impact treatment time. Within this context, this paper presents a new VSM approach for healthcare environments. This new VSM model, specifically designed for healthcare environments, contemplates all activities that directly affect the treatment time. In addition, the present paper also presents an action research in a Brazilian hospital where the proposed VSM model is compared to other VSM models found in the literature. The results shown that the proposed VSM model was able to identify some operational bottlenecks and wastes that interfere in the patient’s treatment that could not be identified by other mapping models studied.     

The importance of key celebrity characteristics for customer segmentation by age and gender: Does beauty matter in professional football?

This paper examines through the lens of sport whether male and female customers as well as differently aged customers focus on different celebrity characteristics and whether they are influenced by celebrities’ facial attractiveness. Drawing on psychological and sociological theories like attachment theory, social role theory of gender, or social norm theory as well as on the academic literature on celebrity endorsement in general, we develop several hypotheses regarding how a fan’s age and gender affect the importance of key characteristics of football stars—namely experience, personality, exemplary behavior, and skills. Using a proprietary dataset that combines archival data concerning professional football players and clubs with survey data of more than 2100 football fans, we find evidence that female fans attach more importance to a player’s personality and behavior while male fans seem to focus on experience and skills. We further find that when fans get older, the importance of a player’s behavior and experience increases. Moreover, our results show that the facial attractiveness of players clearly influences fan perceptions. Our results contribute to existing research on customer segmentation by providing a more differentiated picture of the effects of key celebrity characteristics on different customers.     

Distribution of Exposure Concentrations and Doses for Constituents of Environmental Tobacco Smoke

The ultimate goal of the research reported in this series of three articles is to derive distributions of doses of selected environmental tobacco smoke (ETS)-related chemicals for nonsmoking workers. This analysis uses data from the 16-City Study collected with personal monitors over the course of one workday in workplaces where smoking occurred. In this article, we describe distributions of ETS chemical concentrations and the characteristics of those distributions (e.g., whether the distribution was log normal for a given constituent) for the workplace exposure. Next, we present population parameters relevant for estimating dose distributions and the methods used for estimating those dose distributions. Finally, we derive distributions of doses of selected ETS-related constituents obtained in the workplace for people in smoking work environments. Estimating dose distributions provided information beyond the usual point estimate of dose and showed that the preponderance of individuals exposed to ETS in the workplace were exposed at the low end of the dose distribution curve. The results of this analysis include estimations of hourly maxima and time-weighted average (TWA) doses of nicotine from workplace exposures to ETS (extrapolated from 1 day to 1 week) and doses derived from modeled lung burdens of ultraviolet-absorbing particulate matter (UVPM) and solanesol resulting from workplace exposures to ETS (extrapolated from 1 day to 1 year).     

Les obstacles et les limites du raisonnement mis à l‘œuvre en sciences sociales: un exemple*

There has been a trend in the past several years to question the legitimacy and validity of social science endeavours. Many view the endogenous historical development of disciplines like sociology as the actual ferment of a serious decline in the normativeness of social science-derived knowledge. The author of this article speaks out against a sociological epistemology trend that argues that explanatory pluralism undermines the credibility of this knowledge. Moreover, he takes a stand against another trend denouncing the instrumentalization of the social sciences, by showing that an enlightened awareness of the limits and obstacles of social science reasoning makes it possible to circumvent this instrumentalization and foster the fundamental nature of social knowledge. The author offers an epistemological reading of Francine Saillant's Cancer et culture to support his thesis. Depuis quelques années déjà, il est de mise de s'interroger sur la légitimité et la validité de l'entreprise des sciences sociales. Plusieurs voient dans le développement historique endogène de disciplines comme la sociologie le ferment même d'un sévère recul de la norma-tivité de la connaissance produite par les sciences sociales. L'auteur de cet article s'inscrit en faux contre une certaine tendance de l'épistémologie sociologique qui veut que le pluralisme explicatif nuise à la crédibilité de cette connaissance. Qui plus est, il prend le contre-pied d'une autre tendance qui s'insurge contre l'instru-mentalisation des sciences sociales en démontrant que la conscience éclairée des limites et des obstacles du raisonnement propre à ces sciences permet de contourner cette instrumentalisation et de nourrir l'aspect fondamental du savoir sur le social. L'auteur propose une lecture épistémologique de l'ouvrage Cancer et culture de Francine Saillant pour étayer sa thèse. Pour stupide que fût l'entendement d'un homme, il serait toujours supérieur à celui d'êtres irrationnels. Jorge Luis Borges, L'Immortel     

Influence flows in the academy: Using affiliation networks to assess peer effects among researchers

Little is known about how influence flows in the academy, because of inherent difficulties in collecting data on large samples of friendship and advice-seeking networks over time. We propose taking advantage of the relative abundance of “affiliation network” data to assess aggregate patterns of how individual and dyadic characteristics channel influence among researchers. We formulate and test our approach using new data on 2034 faculty members at Stanford University over a 15-year period, analyzing different affiliations as potential influence channels for changes in grant productivity. Results indicate that research productivity is more malleable to ongoing interpersonal influence processes than suggested in prior research: a strong, salient tie to a colleague in an authority position is most likely to transmit influence, and most forms of influence are likely to spill over to behaviors outside those jointly produced by collaborators. However, the genders and institutional locations of ego-alter pairs significantly affect how influence flows.     

Communicating uncertainty in national security intelligence: Expert and nonexpert interpretations of and preferences for verbal and numeric formats

Organizations in several domains including national security intelligence communicate judgments under uncertainty using verbal probabilities (e.g., likely) instead of numeric probabilities (e.g., 75% chance), despite research indicating that the former have variable meanings across individuals. In the intelligence domain, uncertainty is also communicated using terms such as low, moderate, or high to describe the analyst's confidence level. However, little research has examined how intelligence professionals interpret these terms and whether they prefer them to numeric uncertainty quantifiers. In two experiments (N = 481 and 624, respectively), uncertainty communication preferences of expert (n = 41 intelligence analysts in Experiment 1) and nonexpert intelligence consumers were elicited. We examined which format participants judged to be more informative and simpler to process. We further tested whether participants treated verbal probability and confidence terms as independent constructs and whether participants provided coherent numeric probability translations of verbal probabilities. Results showed that although most nonexperts favored the numeric format, experts were about equally split, and most participants in both samples regarded the numeric format as more informative. Experts and nonexperts consistently conflated probability and confidence. For instance, confidence intervals inferred from verbal confidence terms had a greater effect on the location of the estimate than the width of the estimate, contrary to normative expectation. Approximately one-fourth of experts and over one-half of nonexperts provided incoherent numeric probability translations for the terms likely and unlikely when the elicitation of best estimates and lower and upper bounds were briefly spaced by intervening tasks.