Socio-political forecasting and management information systems

This paper is an attempt to place the forecasting of socio-political variables in the context of actual information needs of industrial companies. Initially discussion is of the effect of socio-political variables upon companies with a review of this significance for decision makers and decision takers. An attempt is then made to categorise existing forecasting techniques in the context of socio-political data whilst regard is paid to the possible effects of socio-political variables on companies. Discussion is then broadened to a consideration of current practice both in the UK and in the USA. Problems implicit in current practice are commented upon and the paper ends with the conclusion that socio-political forecasting is currently significant to many companies and that there is a major potential role for management scientists to play in the development and implementation of appropriate techniques.     

The Planets Aligned: Is Child Protection Policy Reform Good Luck or Good Management?

Abstract

Governments across Australia are struggling to address escalating child protection notifications, a marked increase in the number of children in State care, a decrease in the number of foster carers and chronic workforce shortages in child welfare services. This paper explores the reform process that culminated in the proclamation of the Victorian Children, Youth and Families Act, 2005 and represents an aspect of the response in Victoria to these wider issues. It explores the history of the reform from the perspective of key actors from government, non-government sectors and academics who participated in the process. The paper explores the “ingredients of social policy reform” and how the change process was managed in Victoria. It does not seek to evaluate the reform but rather to understand the complex processes through which a propitious moment for reform was both seized and constructed.     

Managing Meaning: the constitutive contradictions of institutional culture

Abstract

This essay seeks to defamiliarise the currently dominant sense of institutional culture in South Africa. It does so first by examining the history of the emergence of the term in U.S. business studies in the late 1970s, and second, its translation/transposition into higher educational discourse in the 1980s. A third section examines the developing scepticism around the term in the 1990s, and the essay as a whole argues that the idea of institutional culture is based on a constitutive contradiction between instrumental and constitutive understandings of social process. The essay frames the debate around the ways in which the creation of new vocabulary responds either openly or in concealed ways to larger social trends and tensions, and notes the ways in which the current emphasis on institutional culture in South Africa curiously works to marginalise the dominant elements in the neo-liberal transformation of higher education.     

Resisting the Restoration: response to Premesh Lalu

This paper questions Wassenaar's analysis of the ‘financial crisis in South Africa’. It examines the important differences which Wassenaar ignores between 1972–1974 when government revenue rose substantially relative to government expenditure and the period after that when the fiscal deficit rose so substantially. The review considers that Wassenaar has failed to provide any convincing explanation of why government has grown in South Africa. An alternative explanation is offered that draws on the emerging economic analysis of political action. The review then goes on to examine the recent South African Insurance Commission report to see how well opinion in Dr. Wassenaar's own industry accords with the principles of free enterprise. It finds that even in his own industry attachment to competitive principles is highly ambiguous.     

Investigating effort–reward imbalance and work–family conflict in relation to morningness–eveningness and shift work

Abstract

An increasingly older workforce and a growing emphasis on jobs involving interaction with computers have resulted in a need to more carefully examine the relationship between ageing and computer-based work. In this study, a sample of 394 subjects ranging in age from 20-75 years performed a computer task across a 3-day period. Three different types of computer-based jobs (data entry, information retrieval, and accounts balancing) performed at three large US companies were simulated. Age differences in the subjective experience of stress, workload, and bodily discomfort were evaluated. The results indicated that age effects for these measures varied according to task. The older subjects perceived greater workload for the more mentally challenging problem-solving oriented accounts balancing task (Which involved a graphical user interface) than the younger participants, even with increased exposure to the task. However, the older subjects generally experienced less stress than the younger subjects on an information retrieval task that involved a more socially interactive telephone component. A positive relationship between the frustration component of workload and the measure of stress was also found, suggesting an important link between the constructs of stress and workload. Overall, the outcomes of this study provide important insights into design interventions intended to accommodate older as well as younger persons in the workforce.     

Capacity constraints and the dynamics of underwriting profits

The presence of an underwriting profit cycle in property/liability insurance has become a stylized fact. Models of this'underwriting cycle'imply that the insurance market is governed by two regimes, as capacity is constrained or not. We apply the smooth transition regression model to insurance industry data for 1934–1993 to test for a regime shift. We find a rapid shift between two distinct regimes with different dynamics. When capacity is not restricted, we find no evidence of a cycle. The cycle is present in periods when capacity is restricted, immediately following World War II and after 1968. The underwriting cycle appears to be a recent phenomenon.     

Reunite management and planning

In many companies the planning function has been removed from the mainstream of corporate life. Planning (and planners) have been isolated from the locus of decision- making power and insulated from information vital to the planning process. The outcome has been the generation of irrelevant plans and a proliferation of impotent planners. The author argues for a reintegration of technical expertise and managerial power, a reunion of planning and decision-making processes.