Ageing, health and productivity: A challenge for the new millennium

The economic implications of Europe's ageing population are considerable. Without an increase in the size of the working population, reducing the possible fiscal deficits will be difficult. This paper reviews this area of increasing concern for basic, applied and strategic researchers, namely how to increase the age at which people typically stop working, without damaging health or productivity. Chronological age per se may not be a good predictor of health and job performance; rather we should examine various mediating and moderating factors. It is argued that attention should focus on national and organizational policies, management attitudes, training, work demands, the working environment, work organization, the psychosocial environment and health promotion. Older workers may currently be subject to discriminatory practices and to stereotypical and inappropriate attitudes which may adversely affect their health and performance. Flexible and intelligent solutions are required. Many organizations, perhaps reflecting western culture, have not yet evolved to the point where the potential contribution of older people is recognized and allowed to flourish. Once current barriers are removed, and existing and developing knowledge applied, an optimistic picture for older workers emerges.     

GIBBS SAMPLERS FOR A SET OF SEEMINGLY UNRELATED REGRESSIONS

Bayesian estimation of a collection of seemingly unrelated regressions, referred to as a ‘set of seemingly unrelated regressions’ is considered. The collection of seemingly unrelated regressions is linked by common coefficients and/or a common error covariance matrix. Gibbs samplers useful for estimating posterior quantities are described and one of them is applied to a set of linear expenditure functions to estimate household equivalent scales.     

The dangers posed by saddle points, and other problems, when using central composite designs

This paper discusses two problems, which can occur when using central composite designs (CCDs), that are not generally covered in the literature but can lead to wrong decisions-and therefore incorrect models-if they are ignored. Most industrialbased experimental designs are sequential. This usually involves running as few initial tests as possible, while getting enough information as is needed to provide a reasonable approximation to reality (the screening stage). The CCD design strategy generally requires the running of a full or fractional factorial design (the cube or hypercube) with one or more additional centre points. The cube is augmented, if deemed necessary, by additional experiments known as star-points. The major problems highlighted here concern the decision to run the star points or not. If the difference between the average response at the centre of the design and the average of the cube results is significant, there is probably a need for one or more quadratic terms in the predictive model. If not, then a simpler model that includes only main effects and interactions is usually considered sufficient. This test for 'curvature' in a main effect will often fail if the design space contains or surrounds a saddle-point. Such a point may disguise the need for a quadratic term. This paper describes the occurrence of a real saddle-point from an industrial project and how this was overcome. The second problem occurs because the cube and star point portions of a CCD are sometimes run as orthogonal blocks. Indeed, theory would suggest that this is the correct procedure. However in the industrial context, where minimizing the total number of tests is at a premium, this can lead to designs with star points a long way from the cube. In such a situation, were the curvature test to be found non-significant, we could end with a model that predicted well within the cube portion of the design space but that would be unreliable in the balance of the total area of investigation. The paper discusses just such a design, one that disguised the real need for a quadratic term.     

Educational efforts in the implementation of rural family planning programs in East Pakistan

The pilot family planning studies reported in this paper were conducted in a rural area adjacent to the city of Dacca in East Pakistan. It reports the preliminary findings of action-research in the implementation of educational efforts to reach rural villagers of a developing country.Preliminary analyses of the records identify two significant educational problems: (1) most of the villagers (85-90 percent of the couples) who initially accepted contraceptives do not truly adopt and become continuing users and (2) the continuing users (10-15 percent of the initial users) are generally characterized by large families. (Later data show an even lower percentage of continuing users.)The field activities in the development of various educational approaches to family planning are described. Three separate geographic areas (from 15,000 to 20,000 population) were each approached in a different way, varying in the number and educational qualifications of the workers and in the degree of involvement of village leadership. Preliminary analyses of field records indicate that these variations of approach apparently have little effect on the percentage of the population willing to accept contraceptive supplies.It is the opinion of the writers that more intensive educational efforts are necessary at the village level to develop social support for continuing use of contraception and to gain adoption of contraception by younger married couples primarily for spacing of births.The impact of introduction of the IUCD in populations where condoms and foam tablets have been available for one to two years has also been reported. Preliminary findings indicate that the IUCD encourages adoption by previous non-users and may increase the over-all percentage of contraceptive users.     

Differences between the public and private communication of rumors. A pilot survey in Belgium

Liu et al. (2010) and Gelders et al. (2007) called for evidence-based research on differences between public and private sector communication. This article offers such data by focusing on an increasingly important domain of public relations (i.e., corporate communication about rumors vis-à-vis internal and external stakeholders).Our results show government communicators are more frequently confronted with harmful rumors than business communicators but a similar number of respondents from each group have experienced the listed effects and these respondents rate the effects as equally severe. However, fewer public sector communicators have applied most of the proposed strategies, and those who did found them to be in most cases less effective than private sector respondents. In other words, government communicators hear more rumors, experience equally often the negative effects and find them equally severe as business communicators, but they often do not react to them and if they do, they do not find the strategies to be very effective.This study suggests that typical features of public sector organizations, such as the capricious political climate and the influence of party politics, might offer an explanation for these findings.     

Trajectories of adjustment of international students: U‐curve,learning curve,or Third Space 1

International students may need to adapt their approaches to learning and their views of themselves as learners in their new situation. The research reported on in this paper concerns a pre‐sessional English for Academic Purposes (EAP) course for international students entering Higher Education in the UK—mostly Masters students entering a Business School—having a focus on assisting change rather than addressing deficit. Theories of cultural adaptation—U‐curve and learning curve—are discussed in the light of theories of place and space taken from phenomenological geography, and of identity and ‘third space’ taken from cultural studies. The seminar—as this is understood in UK Higher Education—is described as an existential space, and reflective accounts of international students are analysed to see how these narratives both record and create their varying feelings of identifying with the epistemological requirements of seminars. The conclusions drawn are that interventions should be designed to encourage reflective learning, should accept that hybridity rather than complete acculturation is the most likely result, and that synergy—combining elements of different epistemologies—could become a target for all universities.