Editorial

The Analysis of Verbal Behavior -     

Guiding Resource Allocations Based on Terrorism Risk

Establishing tolerable levels of risk is one of the most contentious and important risk management decisions. With every regulatory or funding decision for a risk management program, society decides whether or not risk is tolerable. The Urban Area Security Initiative (UASI) is a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) grant program designed to enhance security and overall preparedness to prevent, respond to, and recover from acts of terrorism by providing financial assistance for planning, equipment, training, and exercise needs of large urban areas. After briefly reviewing definitions of terrorism risk and rationales for risk-based resource allocation, this article compares estimates of terrorism risk in urban areas that received UASI funding in 2004 to other federal risk management decisions. This comparison suggests that UASI allocations are generally consistent with other federal risk management decisions. However, terrorism risk in several cities that received funding is below levels that are often tolerated in other risk management contexts. There are several reasons why the conclusions about terrorism risk being de minimis in specific cities should be challenged. Some of these surround the means used to estimate terrorism risk for this study. Others involve the comparison that is made to other risk management decisions. However, many of the observations reported are valid even if reported terrorism risk estimates are several orders of magnitude too low. Discussion of resource allocation should be extended to address risk tolerance and include explicit comparisons, like those presented here, to other risk management decisions.     

Estimating the proportion of true null hypotheses, with application to DNA microarray data

Summary.  We consider the problem of estimating the proportion of true null hypotheses, π ₀, in a multiple-hypothesis set-up. The tests are based on observed p -values. We first review published estimators based on the estimator that was suggested by Schweder and Spjøtvoll. Then we derive new estimators based on nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation of the p -value density, restricting to decreasing and convex decreasing densities. The estimators of π ₀ are all derived under the assumption of independent test statistics. Their performance under dependence is investigated in a simulation study. We find that the estimators are relatively robust with respect to the assumption of independence and work well also for test statistics with moderate dependence.     

Intersecting Lorenz Curves, the Degree of Downside Inequality Aversion, and Tax Reforms

This paper clarifies the conceptual distinction of downside inequality aversion (or transfer sensitivity) as a normative criterion for judging income distributions from the Pigou-Dalton principle of transfers. We show that when the Lorenz curves of two income distributions intersect, how the change from one distribution to the other is judged by an inequality index exhibiting downside inequality aversion often depends on the relative strengths of its downside inequality aversion and inequality aversion. For additive inequality indices or their monotonic transformations, a measure characterizing the strength of an index’s downside inequality aversion against its inequality aversion is shown to determine the ranking by the index of two distributions whose Lorenz curves cross once. The precise condition under which the same result generalizes to the case of multiple-crossing Lorenz curves is also identified. The results are particularly useful in understanding the distributional impact of tax reforms. I received exceptionally helpful comments from Mike Hoy, Peter Lambert, the Editor, Buhong Zheng, and an anonymous referee. The remaining errors and shortcomings are my own – W.H. Chiu     

The Roles of Group Membership, Beliefs, and Norms in Ecological Risk Perception

Variability in ecological risk perceptions was investigated by surveying members of four stakeholder groups commonly involved in environmental policy debates. Fifty-six individuals from government, industry, environmental, and general-public groups completed a risk-perception survey in which they evaluated 34 environmental hazards on 17 attributes and also evaluated the riskiness and acceptability of each hazard. In addition, participants reported their environmental beliefs and norms using Dunlap et al.'s revised New Ecological Paradigm Scale and modified versions of Schwartz's Awareness of Consequences and Personal Norms Scales. Group membership was predictive of participants' scores on the belief and norm scales. Factor analysis of attribute ratings (averaged across participants) revealed the anticipated three oblique factors: ecological impacts, scientific understanding, and aesthetic impacts. Factor patterns were very similar for the four stakeholder groups. Factors from the aggregate analysis were predictive of individuals' riskiness judgments, but these relationships were moderated by participants' group membership, beliefs, and norms. Compared to members of other groups, members of the general public placed less emphasis on ecological impacts and more emphasis on the other two factors when judging the ecological riskiness of hazards. To our knowledge, these results represent the first formal tests of interactions between hazard characteristics and participant characteristics in determining riskiness judgments, and illustrate how traditional psychometric analyses can be successfully coupled with individual-difference measures to improve the understanding of risk perception.     

Direct and indirect impacts of environmental factors on migration in Burkina Faso: application of structural equation modelling

Population and Environment - In the prolific literature on the impact of environment on migration, direct and indirect effects are often mentioned but rarely estimated separately. We use structural...     

An Examination of Fieldwork Models at Adelphi University School of Social Work

Practitioners' orientation toward research was compared with that of social work students. Practitioners' views on the importance and usefulness of research were significantly less favorable than those of graduate students in social work and more similar to students at the BSW level; but no differences were found with regard to belief in the unbiased nature of social work research. The differences between the practitioners and graduate students might be a manifestation of the failure of the curriculum to articulate research concepts and methodology in a manner responsive to the realities of practice.     

Electronic markets in support of procurement processes along the automotive supply chain

Since the introduction of the internet, firms have continued to seek ways to use these public networks to gain competitive advantage. The procurement function is beginning to take on greater strategic importance as these networks started providing firms wider opportunities such as choices of suppliers. This aims not only to reduce procurement costs, but also to build stronger relationships with suppliers to improve quality and flexibility in meeting customer demand. This type of linkage of firms with their suppliers when the product manufactured is complex and supply-chain is heavily tiered, such as the case of the automobile industry, creates challenges to any electronic market or exchange that is aiming to support such a system. Based on discussions with some key individuals in an automotive supply chain and an in-depth analysis of a supply-chain segment, this paper explores the role electronic markets may have to play, if they are to support the procurement processes of various agents along the supply chain.     

Using the Summed Rank Cusum for monitoring environmental data from industrial processes

Environmental issues have become a hot topic recently, especially those surrounding industrial outputs. Effluents, emissions, outflows, by-products, waste materials, product de-commissioning, land reclamation and energy consumption are all the subject of monitoring, either under new legislation or through economic necessity. Many types of environmental data are often difficult to understand or measure because of their unusual distribution of values however. Standard methods of monitoring these data types often fail or are unwieldy. The scarcity of events, small volume measurements and the unusual time scales sometimes involved add to the complexity of the task. One recently developed monitoring technique is the Summed Rank Cusum (SRC) that applies non-parametric methods to a standard chart. The SRC can be used diagnostically and this paper describes the application of this new tool to three data sets, each derived from a different problem area. These are measuring industrial effluent, assessing the levels of potentially harmful proteins produced by an industrial process and industrial land reclamation in the face of harmful waste materials. The use of the SRC to spot change points in time retrospectively is described. The paper also shows the use of SRC in the significant-difference testing mode, which is applied via the use of spreadsheets. Links to other similar methods described in the literature are given and formulae describing the statistical nature of the transformation are shown. These practical demonstrations illustrate that the graphical interpretation of the method appears to help considerably in practice when trying to find time-series change points. The charts are an effective graphical retrospective monitoring technique when dealing with non-normal data. The method is easy to apply and may help considerably in dealing with environmental data in the industrial setting when standard methods are not appropriate. Further work is continuing on the more theoretical aspects of the method.