STOP‐GO MONETARY POLICY

We propose and estimate several discrete choice models of monetary policy decision‐making that feature time‐varying inertia. The models permit us to account for three stylized facts characterizing monetary policymaking in the United States: (1) target interest rates are gradually adjusted in small discrete movements, (2) there are some long stretches of time in which rates are repeatedly moved, and (3) there are other long stretches in which the policy rate does not change. The models are used to account for delayed monetary policy responses to the recession of 2001 and to the housing‐driven expansion of 2003–2006. (JEL E52, E58, E65)     

Sexually Transmitted Infections and Unintended Pregnancy: A Longitudinal Analysis of Risk Transmission Through Friends and Attitudes

Data from 1,087 adolescent participants in three waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health were used to examine the effects of peer selection and socialization processes in adolescence on later reports of sexually transmitted infections (STI) and unintended pregnancies. Friends' attitudes and behavior were assessed with friends' reports. Among male adolescents, there was evidence for selection effects on STI diagnoses and socialization effects on reports of unintended pregnancy, both involving friends' attitudes. Among female adolescents, there was evidence for long‐term effects of both socialization and selection processes involving same‐sex friends' attitudes. Discussion focuses on the importance of peer and individual attitudes as potential intervention targets.     

A Whirlwind of Change Data: How Libraries and Vendors Translate Data Into Discovery and Access

Abstract

Libraries and vendors share change data to ensure successful discovery and access for users. Change data have increased dramatically and affected data communication, causing barriers to access. Serials data used to be simple: There were new, ceased, and title changes. Data were efficiently exchanged. Now data are complex and difficult to communicate in the digital age. This presentation will discuss the challenges of change data and the ways libraries and vendors are teaming up to calm the whirlwind of change.     

Modeling of semi-competing risks by means of first passage times of a stochastic process

In semi-competing risks one considers a terminal event, such as death of a person, and a non-terminal event, such as disease recurrence. We present a model where the time to the terminal event is the first passage time to a fixed level c in a stochastic process, while the time to the non-terminal event is represented by the first passage time of the same process to a stochastic threshold S, assumed to be independent of the stochastic process. In order to be explicit, we let the stochastic process be a gamma process, but other processes with independent increments may alternatively be used. For semi-competing risks this appears to be a new modeling approach, being an alternative to traditional approaches based on illness-death models and copula models. In this paper we consider a fully parametric approach. The likelihood function is derived and statistical inference in the model is illustrated on both simulated and real data.     

The effect of active parental consent on the ability to generalize the results of an alcohol,tobacco, and other drug prevention trial to rural adolescents

The authors report the effect of active parental consent on sample bias among rural seventh graders participating in a drug abuse prevention trial. Students obtaining active consent from their parents to complete the survey were of higher academic standing, missed fewer days of school, and were less likely to participate in the special education program at their school as compared to students who did not return a parental consent form. However, students with consent were not significantly different from students whose parents actively declined. The sample obtained under active parental consent represents students less at risk for problem behaviors than would have been obtained under passive consent procedures.     

Trends in college binge drinking during a period of increased prevention efforts. Findings from 4 Harvard School of Public Health College Alcohol Study surveys: 1993-2001

The 2001 Harvard School of Public Health College Alcohol Study surveyed students at 119 4-year colleges that participated in the 1993, 1997, and 1999 studies. Responses in the 4 survey years were compared to determine trends in heavy alcohol use, alcohol-related problems, and encounters with college and community prevention efforts. In 2001, approximately 2 in 5 (44.4%) college students reported binge drinking, a rate almost identical to rates in the previous 3 surveys. Very little change in overall binge drinking occurred at the individual college level. The percentages of abstainers and frequent binge drinkers increased, a polarization of drinking behavior first noted in 1997. A sharp rise in frequent binge drinking was noted among students attending all-women's colleges. Other significant changes included increases in immoderate drinking and harm among drinkers. More students lived in substance-free housing and encountered college educational efforts and sanctions resulting from their alcohol use.     

Underage college students' drinking behavior, access to alcohol, and the influence of deterrence policies. Findings from the Harvard School of Public Health College Alcohol Study

Underage drinking is a major problem at American colleges, but little is known about the extent of alcohol use in different student groups, in different colleges, and in states with different control policies. We used data from the 2001 and 3 previous Harvard School of Public Health College Alcohol Studies that compared responses of underage students with those of their 21-23-year-old peers. Underage students drank alcohol less frequently but were more likely to drink to excess when they drank. College educational efforts and deterrent policies were limited in their outreach, and half of underage students obtained alcohol very easily. Underage students in states with extensive laws restricting underage and high-volume drinking were less likely to drink and to binge drink. A majority of underage students supported increasing efforts to control underage drinking. The results suggest that additional policy efforts to control underage drinking may be effective and feasible.