Windows to the Soul? Deliberate Eye Contact as a Cue to Deceit

Although people overwhelmingly believe that liars avoid eye contact, meta-analyses of deception literature have shown a non-significant relationship between gaze and deception. In the present experiment we measured eye movements in an innovative way. We coded the extent to which interviewees deliberately made eye contact with the interviewer. Liars take their credibility less for granted than truth tellers. They therefore may have a greater desire to be convincing and hence more inclined to monitor the interviewer to determine whether they seem to be being believed. We therefore hypothesized that liars would give more appearance of deliberately making eye contact than truth tellers (a relationship which opposes the stereotypical belief that liars look away). A total of 338 passengers at an international airport told the truth or lied about their forthcoming trip. As well as the deliberate eye contact variable, we coded the amount of time the interviewees looked away from the interviewer (e.g., gaze aversion), which is typically examined in deception research. Liars displayed more deliberate eye contact than truth tellers, whereas the amount of gaze aversion did not differ between truth tellers and liars.     

Trajectories of adjustment of international students: U‐curve,learning curve,or Third Space 1

International students may need to adapt their approaches to learning and their views of themselves as learners in their new situation. The research reported on in this paper concerns a pre‐sessional English for Academic Purposes (EAP) course for international students entering Higher Education in the UK—mostly Masters students entering a Business School—having a focus on assisting change rather than addressing deficit. Theories of cultural adaptation—U‐curve and learning curve—are discussed in the light of theories of place and space taken from phenomenological geography, and of identity and ‘third space’ taken from cultural studies. The seminar—as this is understood in UK Higher Education—is described as an existential space, and reflective accounts of international students are analysed to see how these narratives both record and create their varying feelings of identifying with the epistemological requirements of seminars. The conclusions drawn are that interventions should be designed to encourage reflective learning, should accept that hybridity rather than complete acculturation is the most likely result, and that synergy—combining elements of different epistemologies—could become a target for all universities.     

Using the Summed Rank Cusum for monitoring environmental data from industrial processes

Environmental issues have become a hot topic recently, especially those surrounding industrial outputs. Effluents, emissions, outflows, by-products, waste materials, product de-commissioning, land reclamation and energy consumption are all the subject of monitoring, either under new legislation or through economic necessity. Many types of environmental data are often difficult to understand or measure because of their unusual distribution of values however. Standard methods of monitoring these data types often fail or are unwieldy. The scarcity of events, small volume measurements and the unusual time scales sometimes involved add to the complexity of the task. One recently developed monitoring technique is the Summed Rank Cusum (SRC) that applies non-parametric methods to a standard chart. The SRC can be used diagnostically and this paper describes the application of this new tool to three data sets, each derived from a different problem area. These are measuring industrial effluent, assessing the levels of potentially harmful proteins produced by an industrial process and industrial land reclamation in the face of harmful waste materials. The use of the SRC to spot change points in time retrospectively is described. The paper also shows the use of SRC in the significant-difference testing mode, which is applied via the use of spreadsheets. Links to other similar methods described in the literature are given and formulae describing the statistical nature of the transformation are shown. These practical demonstrations illustrate that the graphical interpretation of the method appears to help considerably in practice when trying to find time-series change points. The charts are an effective graphical retrospective monitoring technique when dealing with non-normal data. The method is easy to apply and may help considerably in dealing with environmental data in the industrial setting when standard methods are not appropriate. Further work is continuing on the more theoretical aspects of the method.     

The dangers posed by saddle points,and other problems,when using central composite designs

This paper discusses two problems, which can occur when using central composite designs (CCDs), that are not generally covered in the literature but can lead to wrong decisions-and therefore incorrect models-if they are ignored. Most industrialbased experimental designs are sequential. This usually involves running as few initial tests as possible, while getting enough information as is needed to provide a reasonable approximation to reality (the screening stage). The CCD design strategy generally requires the running of a full or fractional factorial design (the cube or hypercube) with one or more additional centre points. The cube is augmented, if deemed necessary, by additional experiments known as star-points. The major problems highlighted here concern the decision to run the star points or not. If the difference between the average response at the centre of the design and the average of the cube results is significant, there is probably a need for one or more quadratic terms in the predictive model. If not, then a simpler model that includes only main effects and interactions is usually considered sufficient. This test for 'curvature' in a main effect will often fail if the design space contains or surrounds a saddle-point. Such a point may disguise the need for a quadratic term. This paper describes the occurrence of a real saddle-point from an industrial project and how this was overcome. The second problem occurs because the cube and star point portions of a CCD are sometimes run as orthogonal blocks. Indeed, theory would suggest that this is the correct procedure. However in the industrial context, where minimizing the total number of tests is at a premium, this can lead to designs with star points a long way from the cube. In such a situation, were the curvature test to be found non-significant, we could end with a model that predicted well within the cube portion of the design space but that would be unreliable in the balance of the total area of investigation. The paper discusses just such a design, one that disguised the real need for a quadratic term.     

Effects of Welfare Reform on Education Acquisition of Adult Women

Education beyond traditional ages for schooling is an important source of human capital acquisition among adult women. Welfare reform, which began in the early 1990s and culminated in the passage of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act in 1996, promoted work rather than education acquisition for this group. Exploiting variation in welfare reform across states and over time and using relevant comparison groups, we undertake a comprehensive study of the effects of welfare reform on adult women’s education acquisition. We first estimate effects of welfare reform on high school drop-out of teenage girls, both to improve upon past research on this issue and to explore compositional changes that may be relevant for our primary analyses of the effects of welfare reform on education acquisition among adult women. We find that welfare reform significantly reduced the probability that teens from disadvantaged families dropped out of high school, by about 15%. We then estimate the effects of welfare reform on adult women's school enrollment and conduct numerous specification checks, investigate compositional selection and policy endogeneity, explore lagged effects, stratify by TANF work incentives and education policies, consider alternative comparison groups, and explore the mediating role of work. We find robust and convincing evidence that welfare reform significantly decreased the probability of college enrollment among adult women at risk of welfare receipt, by at least 20%. It also appears to have decreased the probability of high school enrollment among this group, on the same order of magnitude. Future research is needed to determine the extent to which this behavioral change translates to future economic outcomes.     

ESTIMATING THE STOCK‐FLOW MATCHING MODEL USING MICRO DATA

We estimate the stock‐flow matching model using micro‐level data from a well‐defined labor market. Using a dataset of complete labor‐market histories for both sides of the market, we estimate hazard functions for job‐seekers and vacancies. We find that the stock of new vacancies has a significant positive impact on the job‐seeker hazard, over and above that of the total stock of vacancies. There is an even stronger robust result for vacancy hazards. Thus we find evidence in favor of stock‐flow matching, even when controlling for unobserved search heterogeneity and stratifying into submarkets defined by location and occupation.     

Tracking national and regional spatial-temporal mortality risk associated with NO2 concentrations in Canada: a Bayesian hierarchical two-level model

The association between daily variations in urban air quality and mortality has been well documented using time series statistical methods. This approach assumes a constant association over time. We develop a space-time dynamic model that relaxes this assumption, thus more directly examining the hypothesis that improvements in air quality translate into improvements in public health. We postulate a Bayesian hierarchical two-level model to estimate annual mortality risks at regional and national levels and to track both risk and heterogeneity of risk within and between regions over time. We illustrate our methods using daily nitrogen dioxide concentrations (NO2) and nonaccidental mortality data collected for 1984-2004 in 24 Canadian cities. Estimates of risk and heterogeneity are compared by cause of mortality (cardio-pulmonary [CP] versus non-CP) and season, respectively. Over the entire period, the NO2 risk for CP mortality was slightly lower but with a narrower credible interval than that for non-CP mortality, mainly due to an unusually low risk for a single year (1998). Warm season NO2 risk was higher than cold season risk for both CP and non-CP mortality. For 21 years overall there were no significant differences detected among the four regional NO2 risks. We found overall that there was no strong evidence for time trends in NO2 risk at national or regional levels. However, an increasing linear time trend in the annual between-region heterogeneities was detected, which suggests the differences in risk among the four regions are getting larger, and further studies are necessary to understand the increasing heterogeneity.     

Platonic Forehand versus Aristotelian Smash - the use of computers as macroscopes in knowing the social world

This paper draws on Desrosie ¤ res, Hayles and Tukey in arguing for an exploratory approach to the use of numerical taxonomy and related approaches in quantitative social research. It asserts that rather than trying to develop algorithm (either in the form of equation sets or game rules) based representations which abstract 'variables' as analogies of Newtonian forces, we should centre on cases and deal with classifications. Then trajectories can be explored in terms of changes both in the classification location of particular cases and changes in the actual form of the classification sets themselves. This approach seems to correspond with Aristotle's notion of intuitive induction with computing technology understood as extending the cognitive capacities of the taxonomist.     

Live supervision in the same room

Following a brief explanation of live supervision, its advantages as a practice teaching method are outlined. The main part of the article focusses on detailed and practical suggestions for the preparation and conduct of live supervision sessions. Discussion then centres around some of the pitfalls and ethical issues which need to be considered. The article concludes by advocating that live supervision can make an important contribution to the current drive to improve practice competence in social work.