The robustness and optimality of response surface designs

Recent work on extended optimality criteria for robust designs is applied to response surface problems. Methods of calculation are described and the criteria illustrated with several examples. The extended criteria discriminate among designs equivalent by other criteria.     

The demand to initiate medical care: A morbidity specific analysis

The dependence of the one year probability of utilizing preventive services and the one year probability of utilizing visits for acute micro-organism disease in the Kaiser-Oregon Prepaid Medical Care System on ten (10) explanatory factors has been investigated using a multiple logistic function analysis.Our results demonstrate the importance of disaggregating the population and the type of medical care when investigating the determinants of utilizing service. This is especially important for understanding the underlying structure of medical care utilization decisions.The study also illustrates a potentially fruitful application of the multivariate logistic analysis to the fields of health care planning and policy analysis. The use of specific types of medical care in the short-term is probabilistic and depends on many factors. For most groups, the multivariate logistic approach produces an analysis reasonably consistent with the actual data.Further research is needed to test the predictive ability of these types of utilization models and to investigate the determinants of other morbidity specific types of medical care utilization. The problem will then be to develop a model of the quantity of alternative types of services utilized-conditioned on the number of persons initiating service for alternative health reasons.     

Some aspects of modern population mathematics

The purpose of this paper is to survey a number of the technical tools and models that have found use in the study of human and other populations, and to indicate some problems of current interest. These tools and models are varied: integral equations, nonlinear oscillations, differential geometry, dynamical systems, nonlinear operations, bifurcation theory, semigroup theory, martingale theory, Markov processes, diffusion processes, branching processes, ergodic theory, prediction theory and state-space models. A fairly extensive bibliography is provided. Also an Appendix has been added describing the analysis of a classical entomological data set.     

High foetal mortality and birth intervals

Abstract Studies of birth intervals have generally separated the process into: (1) the period of infertility following a pregnancy termination; (2) the length ofthe interval from the end of the infertile period to the next conception (which reflects the probability of conception), and (3) the average duration of pregnancy for both live births and foetal deaths.(1) Empirically derived intervals between successive live births average from 19 to 30 lunar months(2) (Table 1), depending upon the population studied and the birth order.(3) Estimates of conception rates using birth intervals data require some estimate of the extent to which foetal wastage increases the birth interval.     

Family Therapy for Chronic Childhood Asthma†

Family therapy has been increasingly advocated in the management of chronic severe childhood asthma. At the Adelaide Children's Hospital we are currently engaged in a trial of family therapy in chronic childhood asthma. Effectiveness of family therapy is judged with a twelve-month follow-up on reduction of symptoms, drug use, emergency physician visits and hospital admissions and on improvement in school attendance and social and family functioning compared to the previous two years experience of the treated patients and compared to a cohort of untreated patients Of similar severity. We are particularly interested in studying different patterns of conflict detouring (child centredness, triangulation and fixed coalition) and the different therapeutic strategies required.     

On Being Unemployed and Being a Victim of Crime—A Commentary

In a paper illustrating the shifting ground of Australian criminological debate Braithwaite and Biles claim the results of the National Crime Victim Survey (showing the unemployed have higher victimization rates for certain crimes: breaking and entering, peeping and assault, than ‘the wealthy’ or ‘the poor’) amount to a refutation of ‘a long tradition of radical criminology’. This tradition is portrayed as ‘crime is a manifestation of working class rebellion against the ruling class’. It is argued that this belated entry into confrontation with marxist oriented radical criminology, evaded for so long, is to be welcomed. However certain formal requirements: properly reading, representing, documenting and referencing ‘the radical critique’ are essential for theoretical advance. On these criteria the Braithwaite and Biles paper is deficient and distorted. The results of the victimization survey bolster rather than deny adequately represented radical critiques.