Stability analysis using mixed models: A critique of tolerance interval methods and a probabilistic solution

Recently, tolerance interval approaches to the calculation of a shelf life of a drug product have been proposed in the literature. These address the belief that shelf life should be related to control of a certain proportion of batches being out of specification. We question the appropriateness of the tolerance interval approach. Our concerns relate to the computational challenges and practical interpretations of the method. We provide an alternative Bayesian approach, which directly controls the desired proportion of batches falling out of specification assuming a controlled manufacturing process. The approach has an intuitive interpretation and posterior distributions are straightforward to compute. If prior information on the fixed and random parameters is available, a Bayesian approach can provide additional benefits both to the company and the consumer. It also avoids many of the computational challenges with the tolerance interval methodology.     

Depression, anxiety, and religious life: a search for mediators

We examine several potential mechanisms linking religious involvement to depressive symptoms, major depression, and anxiety. Logistic and OLS regression estimations test five sets of potential psychosocial religion mediators: perceived attitudes toward and motivations for attendance; positive and negative religious coping; religious attitudes, beliefs, and spirituality; congregational support and criticism; and interpersonal and self-forgiveness. Compared to attending services less than once a month or never, attending services once a week but no more is associated with fewer depressive symptoms and anxiety symptoms. Hypothesized mediators, including meaning, interpersonal and self-forgiveness, congregational criticism, social attendance beliefs, and negative coping are independently associated with one or more mental health outcomes.     

More than just nickels and dimes: a cross-national analysis of working poverty in affluent democracies

Despite its centrality to contemporary inequality, working poverty is often popularly discussed but rarely studied by sociologists. Using the Luxembourg Income Study (2009), we analyze whether an individual is working poor across 18 affluent democracies circa 2000. We demonstrate that working poverty does not simply mirror overall poverty and that there is greater cross-national variation in working than overall poverty. We then examine four explanations for working poverty: demographic characteristics, economic performance, unified theory, and welfare generosity. We utilize Heckman probit models to jointly model the likelihood of employment and poverty among the employed. Our analyses provide the least support for the economic performance explanation. There is modest support for unified theory as unionization reduces working poverty in some models. However, most of these effects appear to be mediated by welfare generosity. More substantial evidence exists for the demographic characteristics and welfare generosity explanations. An individual's likelihood of being working poor can be explained by (a) a lack of multiple earners or other adults in one's household, low education, single motherhood, having children and youth; and (b) the generosity of the welfare state in which he or she resides. Also, welfare generosity does not undermine employment and reduces working poverty even among demographically vulnerable groups. Ultimately, we encourage a greater role for the welfare state in debates about working poverty.     

Works Councils and Firm Productivity in France

This paper utilizes establishment-level data to explore the impact of works councils on firm productivity in France. A variety of empirical techniques is employed, including fixed effects and regression discontinuity designs, to identify this impact. We estimate the works council effect on productivity in union and nonunion settings, and investigate the extent to which alternative forms of worker voice and information sharing might substitute for the works council’s impact in production. We find no evidence of a positive impact of works councils on firm productivity in any of our results, and some limited evidence of a negative effect in some of the findings. There is no indication that estimated impacts on productivity vary with union status. However, a notable finding is that worker voice and information-sharing human resource practices are prevalent in French firms regardless of works council status, and are found to have positive and statistically significant effects on firm productivity.     

以色列在非对称战争中的媒体策略调整

战争与媒体有着密切的联系。尤其是在实力悬殊的非对称战争中,媒体策略的运用在造成以弱胜强或者强者不能赢局面的过程中发挥了重要作用。以色列是地处中东危机频发的国家,拥有比较完善的危机管理机制,并通过战争总结经验教训,不断完善。本文以2006年黎以战争和2008年至2009年之交的加沙战争为例,考察了以色列在两次非对称战争中的媒体政策的调整,政府新闻部门、国防军和媒体的组合拳是当今以色列在非对称战争中媒体策略运用的主要特点,并取得了比较明显的效果。因此,媒体战、信息战在今后的非对称战争中也将占据更为重要的位置。     

Household size,income and expenditure on food: The case of Cyprus

This paper addresses some of the questions raised in a debate between Deaton and Paxson, 1998, Deaton and Paxson, 2003 and Gan and Vernon (2003) in the Journal of Political Economy. At issue is what, on the basis of theory, the behaviour of households should be in relation to expenditure on food, as household size increases. One argument is that expenditure on food, per capita, should increase as household size increases, but analysis of the data gives very different results. Questions arise as to whether food is a public or private good within households, how food compares to clothing and whether there can be substitution away from food, for example towards clothing.For the purposes of addressing these and related questions in the Cyprus context, a household budget survey was undertaken, in which 625 responses were obtained. The paper describes the survey and uses the results of the survey to run regressions to identify the variables that relate significantly to expenditure on food. What we add to the discussion is the analysis of the determinants of expenditure on food in Cyprus, and the categorisation of this expenditure into food at home, take-away food, food in pubs and cafes, and food in restaurants. Our results tend to support Gan and Vernon (2003); we find, for example, that clothing is more private than food.     

Implementing integrated pest management in professional lawn care: a case study

Human choices regarding land cover management practices may influence ecosystem services provided by urban green spaces. We conducted a 2-year study to compare biological (weed, insect, and disease), aesthetic (lawn quality), and economic (lawn care program cost) attributes of an integrated pest management (IPM) program, in which pesticides are applied on the basis of treatment thresholds, with a standard program, in which pesticides are applied on a calendar basis without pest monitoring. Both programs were managed by a professional lawn care operator. Although weed incidence was low, the IPM program had significantly more lawns with weed presence than the standard program during 2005 and 2006. However, only 21% of the IPM lawns required herbicide applications in 2005, and none exceeded the treatment threshold (5% weed cover) in 2006 as compared to 100% of the standard program lawns being treated for weeds in both years. The IPM program also had significantly more lawns with insect damage than the standard program during June 2005 and August 2005, but not September 2005 and throughout 2006. Only 28% of the IPM lawns required insecticide applications in 2005 and none exceeded the threshold (5% insect damage) in 2006 whereas all of the lawns in the standard program received insecticide treatments in both years. Rhizoctonia blight was present on some of the lawns, but was not a common problem. Although lawn quality was high for both programs (>8, on a scale of 1–9), it was significantly higher for standard than for IPM program lawns during 2005, and June 2006 and September 2006, but not August 2006. The annual lawn management costs were lower for the IPM (281.50) than the standard program (281.50) than the standard program (458.06). Thirty one percent of the IPM program customers who continued with the study in 2006 did so because they were satisfied with the IPM program. Among those who did not continue with the program, 33% cited weed or insect problems, while 33% expected better results. The implications of these findings for implementation of IPM in professional lawn care are further discussed.     

RESEARCH NOTE: Language with attitude: American slang and Chinese lǐyǔ1

The Mandarin registers known as lǐyǔ (俚语) have commonly been translated as ‘slang,’ though traditionally lǐyǔ has differed from slang in English by virtue of its strong link to regionalism. A newly emergent version of lǐyǔ that is prominent among young Chinese is marked not by regionalism but by its Internet‐enabled global purview. This youth‐culture lǐyǔ, like the student slang described by Eble (1996) , functions as a device to promote group solidarity while also serving as an identity marker for China's millennial generation. Lǐyǔ, like the numerous versions of slang described in English, Portuguese and other languages, is marked by ebullient or non‐deferential affect, an attribute that helps explains the close association between slang and swearwords. Slang and lǐyǔ lexemes, in light of the affect they entail, are the pragmatic opposites of honorifics – terms which index deference within formal, hierarchical structures.
     

油砂开发的环境风险

油砂是由砂、水和重而粘稠的碳氢化合物(常称之为沥青)等组成的一种混合物,可用于提炼石油.在过去的几年里由于传统石油供应量的减少以及油价暴涨使得石油公司开始关注油砂的开发利用.