Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics

In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling.     

Teaching Business Demography Using Case Studies

Many faculty members consider using case studies but not all end up using them. We provide a brief review of what cases are intended to do and identify three ways in which they can be used. We then use an example to illustrate how we have used the case study method in teaching business demography. Among other benefits, we note that the case studies method not only encourages the acquisition of skills by students, but can be used to promote “deep structure learning,” an approach naturally accommodates other features associated with the case studies method—the development of critical thinking skills, the use of real world problems, the emphasis of concepts over mechanics, writing and presentation skills, active cooperative learning and the “worthwhileness” of a course. As noted by others, we understand the limitations of the case study method. However, given its strengths, we believe it has a place in the instructional toolbox for courses in business demography. The fact that courses we teach is a testament to our perceived efficacy of this tool.     

New Directions in the Development of Population Estimates in the United States?

The advent of a continuously updated Master Area File (MAF) following the 2000 census represents an information resource that can be tapped for purposes of developing timely, cost-effective, and precise population estimates for even the smallest of geographical units (e.g., census blocks). We argue that the MAF can be enhanced (EMAF) for these purposes. In support of our argument we describe a set of activities needed to develop EMAF, each of which is well within the current capabilities of the U.S. Census Bureau and discuss various costs and benefits of each. We also describe how EMAF would provide population estimates containing a wide range of demographic (e.g., age, race, and sex) and socio-economic characteristics (e.g., educational attainment, income, and employment). As such, it could largely negate and eliminate the need for many of the traditional demographic methods of population estimation and possibly reduce the number of sample surveys. We identify important challenges that must be surmounted in order to realize EMAF and make suggestions for doing so. We conclude by noting that the idea of the EMAF could be of interest to other countries with MAF files and strong administrative records systems that, like the United States, are facing the challenge of producing good population information in the face of increasing census costs.     

Collaborative evaluation of a high school prevention curriculum: How methods of collaborative evaluation enhanced a randomized control trial to inform program improvement

Blending high-quality and rigorous research with pure evaluation practice can often be best accomplished through thoughtful collaboration. The evaluation of a high school drug prevention program (All Stars Senior) is an example of how perceived competing purposes and methodologies can coexist to investigate formative and summative outcome variables that can be used for program improvement. Throughout this project there were many examples of client learning from evaluator and evaluator learning from client. This article presents convincing evidence that collaborative evaluation can improve the design, implementation, and findings of the randomized control trial. Throughout this paper, we discuss many examples of good science, good evaluation, and other practical benefits of practicing collaborative evaluation. Ultimately, the authors created the term pre-formative evaluation to describe the period prior to data collection and before program implementation, when collaborative evaluation can inform program improvement.     

Alzheimer's disease and euthanasia

Employing the tenets of philosophical materialism, this paper discusses the ethical debate surrounding assisted suicide for persons suffering end-stage Alzheimer's. It first presents a classification of the dissociative situations between "human individual" and "human person". It then moves on to discuss challenges to diagnosed persons and their caregivers in relation to the cardinal virtues of Spinozistic ethics - strength of character (fortitudo), firmness (animositas) and generosity (generositas). Finally, a number of ideas attached to the debate - "right of choice", "death with dignity", "quality of life" and "compassion in dying" - are discussed in order to clarify their foundations.     

Rural ageing in the United States: Trends and contexts

This paper examines rural population ageing in the United States with a particular focus on the contrasting contexts in which older rural residents live. We compare the characteristics of the older population by rural versus urban residence, and explore challenges and opportunities associated with the ageing of rural baby boomers. The United States is a vast territory, and rural areas in the US are diverse regionally, in poverty and income, principal forms of employment, proximity to metropolitan areas, population size, density and composition, the history of change in these parameters, and a number of other factors that affect the ageing process. Hence, the diversity across rural areas is an important consideration in what affects the well being of rural elderly individuals, as well as the community-level impacts of rural ageing. Further, the characteristics of the older rural population help shape community and rural development outcomes for diverse rural communities. We use data from various US Census Bureau sources, and cite other studies to provide a demographic overview of ageing in the rural United States, and to analyze how this situation differs in varying socio-demographic and regional contexts. In the concluding section, we focus on policy implications associated with rural ageing.     

On being unreasonable in modern society: are mental health problems special?

There are many grounds for arguing that people with a range of disabilities have more in common than they have differences. However, those grounds to date have not resulted in a unified social movement. This paper examines one possible reason for that lack of unity: the particular force of being unreasonable in modern society. However, being unreasonable is not limited to those with a psychiatric diagnosis, nor does a lack or loss of reason take a simple common form within that group: it is a highly nuanced and context-specific matter. This complexity is discussed in relation to a set of inter-related questions about legalism, morality and post-enlightenment concerns with order and rationality. The paper concludes with a discussion of scenarios available to new social movements concerned with disability.     

Gender identity and lexical variation in social media

We present a study of the relationship between gender, linguistic style, and social networks, using a novel corpus of 14,000 Twitter users. Prior quantitative work on gender often treats this social variable as a female/male binary; we argue for a more nuanced approach. By clustering Twitter users, we find a natural decomposition of the dataset into various styles and topical interests. Many clusters have strong gender orientations, but their use of linguistic resources sometimes directly conflicts with the population‐level language statistics. We view these clusters as a more accurate reflection of the multifaceted nature of gendered language styles. Previous corpus‐based work has also had little to say about individuals whose linguistic styles defy population‐level gender patterns. To identify such individuals, we train a statistical classifier, and measure the classifier confidence for each individual in the dataset. Examining individuals whose language does not match the classifier's model for their gender, we find that they have social networks that include significantly fewer same‐gender social connections and that, in general, social network homophily is correlated with the use of same‐gender language markers. Pairing computational methods and social theory thus offers a new perspective on how gender emerges as individuals position themselves relative to audiences, topics, and mainstream gender norms.