Causal inference with generalized structural mean models

Summary.  We estimate cause–effect relationships in empirical research where exposures are not completely controlled, as in observational studies or with patient non-compliance and self-selected treatment switches in randomized clinical trials. Additive and multiplicative structural mean models have proved useful for this but suffer from the classical limitations of linear and log-linear models when accommodating binary data. We propose the generalized structural mean model to overcome these limitations. This is a semiparametric two-stage model which extends the structural mean model to handle non-linear average exposure effects. The first-stage structural model describes the causal effect of received exposure by contrasting the means of observed and potential exposure-free outcomes in exposed subsets of the population. For identification of the structural parameters, a second stage 'nuisance' model is introduced. This takes the form of a classical association model for expected outcomes given observed exposure. Under the model, we derive estimating equations which yield consistent, asymptotically normal and efficient estimators of the structural effects. We examine their robustness to model misspecification and construct robust estimators in the absence of any exposure effect. The double-logistic structural mean model is developed in more detail to estimate the effect of observed exposure on the success of treatment in a randomized controlled blood pressure reduction trial with self-selected non-compliance.     

Boundary Spaces

While shows like The X-Files and 24 have merged conspiracy theories with popular science (fictions), some video games have been pushing the narrative even further. Electronic Art's Majestic game was released in July 2001 and quickly generated media buzz with its unusual multi-modal gameplay. Mixing phone calls, faxes, instant messaging, real and "fake' websites, and email, the game provides a fascinating case of an attempt at new directions for gaming communities. Through story, mode of playing, and use of technology, Majestic highlights the uncertain status of knowledge, community and self in a digital age; at the same time, it allows examination of alternative ways of understanding games' role and purpose in the larger culture. Drawing on intricate storylines involving government conspiracies, techno-bio warfare, murder and global terror, players were asked to solve mysteries in the hopes of preventing a devastating future of domination. Because the game drew in both actual and Majestic-owned/-designed websites, it constantly pushed those playing the game right to borders where simulation collides with " factuality'. Given the wide variety of "legitimate' conspiracy theory, alien encounters and alternative science web pages, users often could not distinguish when they were leaving the game's pages and venturing into " real' World Wide Web sites. Its further use of AOL's instant messenger system, in which gamers spoke not only to bots but to other players, pushed users to evaluate constantly both the status of those they were talking to and the information being provided. Additionally, the game required players to occupy unfamiliar subject positions, ones where agency was attenuated, and which subsequently generated a multi-layered sense of unease among players. This mix of authentic and staged information in conjunction with technologically mediated roles highlights what are often seen as phenomenon endemic to the Internet itself; that is, the destabilization of categories of knowing, relating, and being.     

Fundamentals of Theory and Practice Revisited; The Mutiny and the Bounty: The Place of Milan Ideas Today

The author traces the development of the Milan approach from the beginning, through the split into two teams in 1980, and subsequent developments in theory and application. He identifies possible unrecognised or undeclared influences of Milan in other family therapy approaches.     

The effects of language on judgments of universal facial expressions of emotion

Because of the close connection between culture and language, a number of writers have suggested that bilinguals will differ in their behavior because of differences in the degree of assimilation of different cultures in the same individual. We tested this notion by obtaining data from bilingual (English and Hindi) college students in India using a well-studied cross-cultural research paradigm involving emotional perception. Subjects judged universal facial expressions of emotion in two separate sessions, one conducted entirely in English, the other in Hindi. In each session, they judged which emotion was being portrayed, and how intensely. Subjects recognized anger, fear, and sadness more accurately in English than in Hindi. They also attributed greater intensity to female photos of anger when rating in Hindi, but attributed greater intensity to female photos of sadness when rating in English. These findings were discussed in relation to the theoretical connection between culture and language.     

Measuring Substance Abuse Treatment Need Among Adults in Florida: A Social Indicators Approach

Determining the size and demographiccharacteristics of substance abuse populationsis extremely important for implementing publicpolicies aimed at the control of substanceabuse. Such information not only assists in theallocation of limited treatment resources bythe state, but also in the monitoring ofsubstance abuse trends over time and in theevaluation of innovative policy initiatives. Inthis study, we develop three composite measuresof treatment need. We then use these measuresto estimate treatment need for alcohol abuseand for controlled substance abuse within eachof Florida's 67 counties. This study providesan important empirical component of communityplanning, quantifying and, to a limited degree,specifying the level of need for the substanceabuse treatment of community residents. Anadditional benefit is the development of a costeffective and unobtrusive methodology fordetermining empirically when levels of need arechanging so that treatment levels can beadjusted accordingly. With proper use,policymakers can readily employ the methodologydeveloped in this study in Florida andelsewhere to make better-informed decisions inthe allocation of finite substance abusetreatment resources.     

Vulnerability and Agenda: Context and Process in Project Management

This paper explores how the project management role is conditioned by the context in which change is progressed. The argument draws on Pettigrew's (1985, 1987) contextual and processual view of change, a view which does not clarify the management implications of contextual variation. Using data from a two-stage research design combining diary and survey methods, four context dimensions are identified, concerning ‘interlocking’, ‘shifting sands’, ‘ownership’ and ‘senior management view’. For analytical purposes, two extreme contexts are characterized as exposing the project manager to high and low levels of ‘vulnerability’ respectively. Project management literature typically offers a rational-linear account of change, and concentrates on ‘content’ and ‘control’ agendas, concerning technical expertise on the one hand, and planning, budgeting and monitoring techniques on the other. Sociological analyses reveal the limitations of the rational-linear account, and focus on the political and cultural dimensions of the ‘process’ agenda. The data suggest how contextual variation affects the relative priority of these agendas. The management implications of these findings are explored, for project management selection, career progression, and the development of diagnostic skills and ‘agenda management’ strategies.     

PREDICTING MARITAL SUCCESS FOR PREMARITAL COUPLE TYPES BASED ON PREPARE

Recent studies have shown that group differences in marital stability and satisfaction can be predicted based on premarital relationship quality. There is also a growing literature indicating that there are distinct types of relationships, both premaritally and developmentally over time. This study examined the relationship between the four premarital types (Vitalized, Harmonious, Traditional, and Conflicted) identified by Fowers and Olson (1992) and relationship outcome over a 3-year period with 393 couples. A substantial relationship was found, with conflicted couples being the most likely to separate or divorce. Vitalized couples had the highest levels of satisfaction, followed by Harmonious, Traditional, and Conflicted couples. Traditional couples were less likely to have divorced than Harmonious couples, even though Harmonious couples had higher premarital relationship satisfaction scores.